Scenario analysis can guide aquaculture planning to meet sustainable future production goals

Marine aquaculture holds great promise for meeting increasing demand for healthy protein that is sustainably produced, but reaching necessary production levels will be challenging. The ecosystem approach to aquaculture is a framework for sustainable aquaculture development that prioritizes multiple-stakeholder participation and spatial planning. These types of approaches have been increasingly used to help guide sustainable, persistent, and equitable aquaculture planning, but most countries have difficulties in setting or meeting longer-term development goals. Scenario analysis (SA) for future planning uses similar approaches and can complement holistic methods, such as the ecosystem approach to aquaculture framework, by providing a temporal analogue to the spatially robust design. Here we define the SA approach to planning in aquaculture, outline how SA can benefit aquaculture planning, and review how this tool is already being used. We track the use of planning tools in the 20 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea member nations, with particular attention given to Norway’s development goals to 2050. We conclude that employing a combination of an ecosystem framework with scenario analyses may help identify the scale of development aquaculture goals over time, aid in evaluating the feasibility of the desired outcomes, and highlight potential social-ecological conflicts and trade-offs that may otherwise be overlooked.Versión del editor2,27

Nitrogen - grasping the challenge. A manifesto for science-in-action through the International Nitrogen Management System. Summary report

Report published by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK on behalf of the International Nitrogen Management System (INMS). Freely available to download from the Official link

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees

Comparison of survival after surgical or medical treatment in dogs with a congenital portosystemic shunt

Objective—To compare survival of dogs with a congenital portosystemic shunt (CPSS) that received medical or surgical treatment. Design—Prospective cohort study. Animals—126 client-owned dogs with a single CPSS. Procedures—Dogs were examined at 1 of 3 referral clinics, and a single CPSS was diagnosed in each. Dogs received medical or surgical treatment without regard to signalment, clinical signs, or results of hematologic or biochemical analysis. Survival data were analyzed via a Cox regression model. Results—During a median follow-up period of 579 days, 18 of 126 dogs died as a result of CPSS. Dogs treated via surgical intervention survived significantly longer than did those treated medically. Hazard ratio for medical versus surgical treatment of CPSS (for the treatment-only model) was 2.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 7.2). Age at CPSS diagnosis did not affect survival. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Both medical and surgical treatment can be used to achieve long-term survival of dogs with CPSS, although results of statistical analysis supported the widely held belief that surgery is preferable to medical treatment. However, the study population consisted of dogs at referral clinics, which suggested that efficacy of medical treatment may have been underestimated. Although surgical intervention was associated with a better chance of long-term survival, medical management provided an acceptable first-line option. Age at examination did not affect survival, which implied that early surgical intervention was not essential. Dogs with CPSS that do not achieve acceptable resolution with medical treatment can subsequently be treated surgically