Pacific Ocean Forcing and Atmospheric Variability are the Dominant Causes of Spatially Widespread Droughts in the Contiguous United States

The contributions of oceanic and atmospheric variability to spatially widespread summer droughts in the contiguous United States (hereafter, pan-CONUS droughts) are investigated using 16-member ensembles of the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1856 to 2012. The employed SST forcing fields are either (i) global or restricted to the (ii) tropical Pacific or (iii) tropical Atlantic to isolate the impacts of these two ocean regions on pan-CONUS droughts. Model results show that SST forcing of pan-CONUS droughts originates almost entirely from the tropical Pacific because of atmospheric highs from the northern Pacific to eastern North America established by La Nia conditions, with little contribution from the tropical Atlantic. Notably, in all three model configurations, internal atmospheric variability influences pan-CONUS drought occurrence by as much or more than the ocean forcing and can alone cause pan-CONUS droughts by establishing a dominant high centered over the US montane West. Similar results are found for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Model results are compared to the observational record, which supports model-inferred contributions to pan-CONUS droughts from La Nias and internal atmospheric variability. While there may be an additional association with warm Atlantic SSTs in the observational record, this association is ambiguous due to the limited number of observed pan-CONUS. The ambiguity thus opens the possibility that the observational results are limited by sampling over the 20th-century and not at odds with the suggested dominance of Pacific Ocean forcing in the model ensembles

Structural steel framing options for mid- and high rise buildings

Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2006.Includes bibliographical references.Selecting a structural system for a building is a complex, multidisciplinary process. No design project is the same; however, there are certain criteria that are commonly true in the initial phase of evaluating different structural schemes. These criteria encompass all aspects of a full, functioning building, forcing the design team to be creative in their approach of satisfying all facets. An investigation was carried out for several structural steel framing options available to designers. The schemes describe how each successfully resist lateral loads explaining the advantages and disadvantages of each. Many of the structural design tools available for initial structural system evaluation are strength based. The demand for cheaper, more efficient and taller structures has paved the way for performance based design. A simple cantilever beam performance based analysis was utilized to evaluate three common structural framing schemes in order to gain a better understanding of the performance of each. Results give recommendations for efficient structural solutions for proposed buildings as a function of height.by Jason A. Cook.M.Eng

Gemini NorthNIRI Spectra of Pluto and Charon: Simultaneous Analysis of the Surface and Atmosphere

94035We report on our analysis of blended Pluto and Charon spectra over the wavelength range 1.4 to 2.5 m as obtained by the NIRI instrument on Gemini North on June 25-28, 2004. The data have a resolving power () around 1500 and a SNR around 200 per pixel. The observed blended spectra are compared to models that combine absorption from the solid ice on the surface using Hapke theory, and absorption from the gaseous atmosphere. We assume the spectrum is a combination of several spatially separate spectral units: a CH4-rich ice unit, a volatile unit (an intimate mixture of N2, CH4 and CO), and a Charon unit (H2O, ammonia hydrate and kaolinite). We test for the presence of hydrocarbons (i.e. C2H6) and nitriles (i.e. HCN) and examine cases where additional ices are present as either pure separate spatial units, mixed with the CH4-rich unit or part of the volatile unit. We conclude that 2-4 of Plutos surface is covered with pure-C2H6 and our identification of C2H6 is significantly strengthened when absorption due to gaseous CH4 is included. The inclusion of Plutos atmosphere demonstrates that low-resolution, high-SNR observations are capable of detecting Plutos atmosphere during a time when Plutos atmosphere may have been undergoing rapid changes (1988-2002) and no high-resolution spectra were obtained. In particular, we identify features at 1.665 and 2.317 m as the Q-branch of the 23 and 3+4 bands of gaseous CH4, respectively. The later band is also evident in many previously published spectra of Pluto. Our analysis finds it is unnecessary to include 13CO to explain the depth of the 2.405 m, which has been previously suggested to be a spectral blended with C2H6, but we cannot definitively rule out its presence. Funding for this work (Cook) has been provided by a NASA-PATM grant

Circular orbits and spin in black-hole initial data

The construction of initial data for black-hole binaries usually involves the choice of free parameters that define the spins of the black holes and essentially the eccentricity of the orbit. Such parameters must be chosen carefully to yield initial data with the desired physical properties. In this paper, we examine these choices in detail for the quasiequilibrium method coupled to apparent-horizon/quasiequilibrium boundary conditions. First, we compare two independent criteria for choosing the orbital frequency, the "Komar-mass condition" and the "effective-potential method," and find excellent agreement. Second, we implement quasi-local measures of the spin of the individual holes, calibrate these with corotating binaries, and revisit the construction of non-spinning black hole binaries. Higher-order effects, beyond those considered in earlier work, turn out to be important. Without those, supposedly non-spinning black holes have appreciable quasi-local spin; furthermore, the Komar-mass condition and effective potential method agree only when these higher-order effects are taken into account. We compute a new sequence of quasi-circular orbits for non-spinning black-hole binaries, and determine the innermost stable circular orbit of this sequence.Comment: 24 pages, 17 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review D, revtex4; Fixed error in computing proper separation and updated figures and tables accordingly, added reference to Sec. IV.A, fixed minor error in Sec. IV.B, added new data to Tables IV and V, fixed 1 reference, fixed error in Eq. (A7b), included minor changes from PRD editin

Understanding supply chain security strategy

In the post-9/11 environment, organizations are acutely aware of the need to secure their supply chains from risks of being a target of, or an unwilling participant in, a terror attack. However, supply chain security (SCS) comes at a cost and increasing levels of protection have increasing levels of costs to the firm. So some firms engage in strategic initiatives to secure the supply chain (SC) while others do not; and each firm engages in varying degrees of activities to ensure SCS. Therefore, in this study, the researchers sought to explore what types of SCS strategies exist. The researchers analyze 162 responses to a SCS survey completed by executives from a broad range of firms and industries and identify three general SCS strategies: Advanced, Laggards, and Compliant. Implications for researchers and practitioners are presented

Urokinase-type plasminogen activator and arthritis progression: contrasting roles in systemic and monoarticular arthritis models

INTRODUCTION: Urokinase-type plasminogen activator (u-PA) has been implicated in tissue destruction/remodeling. The absence of u-PA results in resistance of mice to systemic immune complex-driven arthritis models; monoarticular arthritis models involving an intra-articular (i.a.) antigen injection, on the other hand, develop more severe arthritis in its absence. The aims of the current study are to investigate further these contrasting roles that u-PA can play in the pathogenesis of inflammatory arthritis and to determine whether u-PA is required for the cartilage and bone destruction associated with disease progression. METHODS: To determine how the different pathogenic mechanisms leading to arthritis development in the different models may explain the contrasting requirement for u-PA, the systemic, polyarticular, immune complex-driven K/BxN arthritis model was modified to include an i.a. injection of saline as a local trauma in u-PA-/- mice. This modified model and the antigen-induced arthritis (AIA) model were also used in u-PA-/- mice to determine the requirement for u-PA in joint destruction. Disease severity was determined by clinical and histologic scoring. Fibrin(ogen) staining and the matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-generated neoepitope DIPEN staining were performed by immunohistochemistry. Gene expression of inflammatory and destructive mediators was measured in joint tissue by quantitative PCR. RESULTS: In our modified arthritis model, u-PA-/- mice went from being resistant to arthritis development following K/BxN serum transfer to being susceptible following the addition of an i.a. injection of saline. u-PA-/- mice also developed more sustained AIA compared with C57BL/6 mice, including reduced proteoglycan levels and increased bone erosions, fibrin(ogen) deposition and DIPEN expression. Synovial gene expression of the proinflammatory mediators (TNF and IL-1β), aggrecanases (ADAMTS-4 and -5) and MMPs (MMP3 and MMP13) were all sustained over time following AIA induction in u-PA-/- mice compared with C57BL/6 mice. CONCLUSIONS: We propose that u-PA has a protective role in arthritis models with 'wound healing-like' processes following local trauma, possibly through u-PA/plasmin-mediated fibrinolysis, but a deleterious role in systemic models that are critically dependent on immune complex formation and complement activation. Given that cartilage proteoglycan loss and bone erosions were present and sustained in u-PA-/- mice with monoarticular arthritis, it is unlikely that u-PA/plasmin-mediated proteolysis is contributing directly to this tissue destruction/remodeling

North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO₂], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority

Revisiting the Leading Drivers of Pacific Coastal Drought Variability in the Contiguous United States

Coastal droughts that simultaneously affect California, Oregon, and Washington are rare, but they have extensive and severe impacts (e.g., wildfire and agriculture). To better understand these events, historical observations are used to investigate 1) drought variability along the Pacific coast of the contiguous United States and 2) years when extreme drought affects the entire coast. The leading pattern of cold-season (October–March) precipitation variability along the Pacific coast favors spatially coherent moisture anomalies, accounting for >40% of the underlying variance, and is forced primarily by internal atmospheric dynamics. This contrasts with a much weaker dipole mode (~20% of precipitation variability) characterized by antiphased moisture anomalies across 40°N and strong correlations with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Sixteen coastal-wide summer droughts occurred from 1895 to 2016 (clustering in the 1920s–1930s and post-2000), events most strongly linked with the leading precipitation mode and internal atmospheric variability. The frequency of landfalling atmospheric rivers south of 40°N is sharply reduced during coastal droughts but not north of this boundary, where their frequency is more strongly influenced by the dipole. The lack of a consistent pattern of SST forcing during coastal droughts suggests little potential for skillful seasonal predictions. However, their tendency to cluster in time and the impact of warming during recent droughts may help inform decadal and longer-term drought risks