The development of the technology forecasting model within the enterprise

Predmet istraživanja ovog rada je analiza različitih metoda tehnološkog predviđanja u preduzeću na osnovu kojih se mogu sagledati objektivne mogućnosti, uslovi, potrebe, efekti i vreme realizacije tehnoloških promena, odnosno uvođenja novih tehnologija. Jedan od ciljeva istraživanja je da se utvrdi model kao osnova za upravljanje tehnologijom u preduzeću kroz sledeće zadatke: sistematizaciju metoda tehnološkog predviđanja u zavisnosti od delatnosti preduzeća, proizvodnog asortimana i karakteristične organizacione strukture; klasifikaciju metoda u zavisnosti od nivoa menadžmenta i tipa odlučivanja. Rad će ukazati na postojeću primenu modela tehnološkog predviđanja u konkretnom preduzeću koji se zasniva na kvalitativnim metodama i ugrađuje ekspertska znanja, kao i na odnos razvijenog modela i upravljanja tehnologijom u preduzeću. Disertacija potvrđuje opšte hipoteze: 1. Tehnološko predviđanje je oblast od velikog značaja za strateški menadžment organizacije, 2. Razvoj modela tehnološkog predviđanja primerenog konkretnim uslovima i specifičnostima organizacije od posebnog je značaja za širu primenu tehnološkog predviđanja u praksi. U disertaciji je na osnovu analize obimne građe dostupne domaće i inostrane literature urađena sistematizacija postojećih znanja u oblasti tehnološkog predviđanja. Disertacija kroz dalje istraživanje donosi nova saznanja predstavljanjem rezultata istraživanja kojim smo proverili aktuelnu situaciju u vezi sa tehnološkim predviđanjem u praksi u Srbiji kao i predstavljanjem rezultata empirijskih istraživanja tehnološkog predviđanja u konkretnom preduzeću. Početni model tehnološkog predviđanja je proveren i verifikovan na odabranom realnom primeru sprovedenog tehnološkog predviđanja u domaćem preduzeću. Na osnovu dobijenih saznanja, razvijen je novi model tehnološkog predviđanja. Predloženi model se može koristiti kao osnova za identifikovanje faza tehnološkog predviđanja u konkretnom preduzeću i predlaganje potrebnih menadžment akcija u funkciji uspešnog upravljanja tehnologijom. Rezultati istraživanja i razvijeni model tehnološkog predviđanja stvaraju osnovu za kvalitetnije upravljanje, ali i za dalja istraživanja u ovoj oblasti...This paper focuses on analysis of various methods of technology forecasting within an enterprise that help in perceiving real possibilities, conditions, needs, effects and time of realization of technology changes, i.e. introduction of new technologies. One of the goals of this survey is to set a model as a groundwork for technology management within enterprise through following tasks: systematization of technology forecasting methods depending on company profile, product range, characteristic organizational structure; and method classification depending on the management level and decisionmaking type. This paper will draw attention to existing application of technology forecasting models within a conrete enterprise based on quality methods and introduces expert knowledge, as well as to relation between the developed model and technology management in the company. The dissertation confirms the general hypotheses: 1. Technology forecasting is a field of great importance for strategic management of an organization, 2. The development of technologyforecasting model that applies to specific conditions and organization specificities is of special importance for the application of technology forecasting in practice. The dissertation deals with systematization of existing knowledge in the field of technology forecasting based on analysis of comprehensive material available in both domestic and foreign literature. Through further investigation, this dissertation brings new findings by introducing the results of investigation that we used to check the actual situation regarding technology forecasting in practice in Serbia, and also by presenting the results of empiric reaserch on technology forecasting in concrete enterprise. The initial model of technology forecasting is tested and veryfied on the selected real example of conducted technology forecasting in domestic company. Based on these findings, a new model of technology forecasting has been developed. The suggested model could be used as a groundwork for identifying the phases of technology forecasting in concrete enterprise, and for suggesting necessary management actions with the goal of successful technolgy management. The research results and developed technology forecasting model provide a groundwork for better quality management, as well as for further researches in this field..

Umfassende Analyse niedriger Wasserstände in der weiteren Zusammenflussregion der Flüsse Drina und Sava

Ideja ovoga rada je da prikaže osnovne rezultate sprovedene sveobuhvatne analize malih voda Save i Drine u zoni ušća Drine. U radu se prikazuju kvantitativne karakteristike malih voda koje se najčešće koriste kao podloga pri projektovanju većine vodoprivrednih i hidrotehničkih objekata. Posebno je detaljno analizirana dužina malovodnih perioda ispod repernih protoka - protoka određenih za izabrana trajanja sa krivih trajanja srednjih dnevnih protoka. Primenjen je novi pristup koji, pored klasične probabilističke analize minimalnih godišnjih i minimalnih srednjih mesečnih protoka, obuhvata i analizu dužina neprekidnih malovodnih perioda sa protocima manjim od protoka karakterističih trajanja, njihovu unutargodišnju raspodelu i zastupljenost. Bazni podaci koji su korišćeni za proračun malih voda su zvanični podaci Državnog hidrometeorološkog zavoda Hrvatske iz Zagreba (DHMZ) i Republičkog hidrometeorološkog zavoda Srbije iz Beograda (RHMZ) na hidrološkim stanicama (HS) Županja i Sremska Mitrovica na reci Savi i Radalj na reci Drini.The idea of this paper is to present the main results of a comprehensive analysis of the Sava and Drina low water discharges in the area of the Drina river mouth. The paper presents the quantitative characteristics of low discharges that are generally used as a basis for designs of the majority of water management and hydrotechnical facilities. The particular focus is a detailed analysis of the length of low discharge periods below the initial discharges, which were determined for selected durations from the curves of average daily discharge durations. A new approach was applied which, in addition to the classic probabilistic analysis of minimum annual and minimum average monthly discharges, also includes the analysis of the length of continuous low discharge periods with discharges lower than the discharges of characteristic durations, their intra-annual distribution and representation. The basic data used for the calculation of low discharges are the official data of the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service from Zagreb (DHMZ) and the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute of Serbia from Belgrade (RHMZ) at the hydrological stations (HS) Županja and Sremska Mitrovica on the Sava River and Radalj on the Drina River.Das Ziel dieses Beitrags ist es, die wichtigsten Ergebnisse einer umfassenden Analyse niedriger Wasserstände der Flüsse Drina und Sava in der Zusammenflusszone darzustellen. Es werden quantitative Eigenschaften niedriger Wasserstände dargestellt, die am häufigsten als Grundlage für die Projektierung von meisten wasserwirtschaftlichen Anlagen verwendet werden. Die Länge der Niedrigwasserperioden unterhalb der Schwellenwerte der Durchflüsse wurde detailliert analysiert, welche Durchflüsse für die ausgewählten Dauer anhand der Dauerkurve für die mittleren täglichen Durchflüsse definiert wurden. Ein neuer Ansatz wurde angewendet, der zusätzlich zur klassischen probabilistischen Analyse von minimalen jährlichen und minimalen mittleren monatlichen Durchflüssen auch die Analyse der Länge durchgehender Niedrigwasserperioden mit Durchflüssen kleiner als Durchflüsse charakteristischer Dauer sowie ihre unterjährige Verteilung und Vertretung beinhaltet. Die für die Berechnung niedriger Wasserstände verwendeten Angaben sind offizielle Angaben des kroatischen hydrometeorologischen Instituts (DHMZ) Zagreb und des serbischen hydrometeorologischen Instituts (RHMZ) Belgrad für die hydrologischen Stationen Županja und Sremska Mitrovica auf dem Fluss Sava und Radalj auf dem Fluss Drina

Sveobuhvatna analiza malih voda na širem sektoru ušća reke Drine u reku Savu

Ideja ovoga rada je da prikaže osnovne rezultate sprovedene sveobuhvatne analize malih voda Save i Drine u zoni ušća Drine. U radu se prikazuju kvantitativne karakteristike malih voda koje se najčešće koriste kao podloga pri projektovanju većine vodoprivrednih i hidrotehničkih objekata. Posebno je detaljno analizirana dužina malovodnih perioda ispod repernih protoka - protoka određenih za izabrana trajanja sa krivih trajanja srednjih dnevnih protoka. Primenjen je novi pristup koji, pored klasične probabilističke analize minimalnih godišnjih i minimalnih srednjih mesečnih protoka, obuhvata i analizu dužina neprekidnih malovodnih perioda sa protocima manjim od protoka karakterističih trajanja, njihovu unutargodišnju raspodelu i zastupljenost. Bazni podaci koji su korišćeni za proračun malih voda su zvanični podaci Državnog hidrometeorološkog zavoda Hrvatske iz Zagreba (DHMZ) i Republičkog hidrometeorološkog zavoda Srbije iz Beograda (RHMZ) na hidrološkim stanicama (HS) Županja i Sremska Mitrovica na reci Savi i Radalj na reci Drini

Characterization of S-layer proteins of potential probiotic starter culture Lactobacillus brevis SF9B isolated from sauerkraut

Abstract S-layers represent the simplest biological membranes developed during the evolution and are one of the most abundant biopolymers on Earth. Current fundamental and applied research aim to reveal the chemical structure, morphogenesis and function of S-layer proteins (Slps). This is the first paper that describes the Slps of certain Lactobacillus brevis strain isolated from sauerkraut. The whole genome sequence (WGS) analysis of the L. brevis SF9B strain uncovered three genes encoding the putative Slps, but merely one, identified as similar to the SlpB of L. brevis ATCC 14869, was expressed. Slp-expressing SF9B cells exhibited increased survival in simulated gastrointestinal (GI) conditions and during freeze-drying. Their survival in stress conditions was additionally enhanced by microencapsulation, especially when using alginate with gelatine as a matrix. Thus prepared cells were subjected to simulated GI conditions and their mortality was only 0.28 ± 0.45 log CFU/mL. Furthermore, a correlation between the high surface hydrophobicity and the remarkable aggregative capacity of SF9B strain was established. The results indicate a prominent role of Slps in adhesion to mucin, extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins, and particularly to Caco-2 cells, where the removal of Slps utterly abolished the adhesiveness of SF9B cells for 7.78 ± 0.25 log CFU/mL.Peer reviewe

Technology Entreprenurship in the Changing Business Environment – A Triple Helix Performance Model

In this paper the contribution of technology management and entrepreneurship to sustainable development is emphasized and the Triple Helix (TH) model is used to analyse the performance of different actors in accomplishing the activities of Technology Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship (TIME). By analysing TH model (Government – University – Industry) in relation to accomplishing TIME main functions: Planning, Organizing and Control (POC), we created a general model which measures TIME effectiveness related to the key elements of the TH model. The general model – TMD-TH (Technology Management and Development – Triple Helix) represents the framework for further more specific research into the relations of the observed dimensions. From the general model, three sub-models are excluded: TMD-G (Government), TMD-U (University) and TMD-I (Industry), and each of TH dimensions is observed by a set of indicators classified from the perspective of the specific function (POC) of TIME. This provides better categorization of TIME indicators and linkage with the actors in the TH model. The applicability of the suggested general model was tested by a set of indicators at the example of Serbia, Austria and Finland and comparison of these countries was made from a perspective of innovativeness and sustainable development. Since technology, innovation and entrepreneurship are considered as the main forces leading to sustainable development at different levels of the economy and society, it is of paramount importance to develop our capacities to better monitor, analyse and develop these forces. A model is developed with a set of indicators that enables the systematic analysis in concrete situations in practice. In this paper, the model is applied at the level of the national economy, the results obtained point to the most critical activities of the actors in the TH model in accomplishing TIME. The performance model represents a base for developing policies and strategy better tuned to the urgent needs of the economy and society in developing TIME directly related to accomplishing a higher level of sustainable development

Consumer attitudes to the animal food quality products in Serbia

The objective of this study was to determine consumer attitudes to animal food quality products in Serbia. The study was carried out in two steps. First, qualitative research was carried out by interviewing experts, which provided information on the main strengths and weaknesses of Serbian food products. Second, standardized face-to-face interviews with consumers were conducted. The attitudes were summarized using descriptive statistics and analysis of variance. The quality products of animal origin in this study included the local, traditional and organic products. The results showed that consumers tend to prefer quality over price. It is important to underline that in Serbia there is limited research in this field and consumers tend to provide socially desirable responses. Consumers in Serbia allocate about 40% of total income to food. Serbian consumers tend to enjoy food shopping more than other consumers in the Region and they have the least pronounced ethnocentrism

Consumer attitudes to the animal food quality products in Serbia

The objective of this study was to determine consumer attitudes to animal food quality products in Serbia. The study was carried out in two steps. First, qualitative research was carried out by interviewing experts, which provided information on the main strengths and weaknesses of Serbian food products. Second, standardized face-to-face interviews with consumers were conducted. The attitudes were summarized using descriptive statistics and analysis of variance. The quality products of animal origin in this study included the local, traditional and organic products. The results showed that consumers tend to prefer quality over price. It is important to underline that in Serbia there is limited research in this field and consumers tend to provide socially desirable responses. Consumers in Serbia allocate about 40% of total income to food. Serbian consumers tend to enjoy food shopping more than other consumers in the Region and they have the least pronounced ethnocentrism

Ranking Technology Forecasting Journals by Using Data Envelopment Analysis

The goal of this paper is to present the ranking of the journals in the field of technology forecasting (TF) through the application of the Data Envelopment Analysis - DEA. Over the past four decades, we have witnessed a rapid development in the field of technology forecasting. This development, both in theory and in practice, has been fuelled by the increase in complexity, even greater competition, and rapid changes in the business environment. Back in the past, little attention was paid to the importance and conceptual development in the field of TF, which caused numerous overlaps of the forms of TF development and its influence. The changes that have resulted in the emergence of information technology and modern manufacturing technology have actually increased the need for application of technology forecasting, as well as for explosive growth in scientific and engineering literature worldwide. The paper shows the ranking of 39 journals in the field of TF over the period from 1999 to 2011 through the application of the Data Envelopment Analysis, as well as through analyzing trend changes in publishing professional publications in the field of technology forecasting. Also pointed out are the shortcomings ofprevious methods of ranking journals by using impact factors, as one of the most important indicators of the quality of journals, as well as the possibilities of applying indicators obtained by using other methodologies. The results of such method of ranking should point out to publishing trends to the researchers engaged in this field, and direct them to journals in which they could present the results of their research. The aim of this research is to show that more than one criterion must be taken in order to create the rank of a journal from a specific area. In this way we get a more realistic ranking of leading journals from the observed area, since other necessary elements that contribute to the importance of a journal for a relevant field are also taken into consideration

Youth and forecasting of sustainable development pillars: An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system approach.

Sustainable development goals are used as a guidance for strategies development on local, regional and national levels. The importance of including young people in this complex process is recognized in all relevant documents (i.e. Agenda 21), however it is not an easy task to elicit opinions and preferences from the youth. Furthermore, the assessment of the sustainable development goals itself presents a challenge for the noisy data and nonlinear relationships in data. Popular approach is fuzzy set models where expert knowledge is presented with comprehensible rules; however expert knowledge elicitation takes a long time too. Several studies proposed an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system approach that combines the fuzzy set theory to model expert knowledge with neural networks for inferring rules and membership functions from data to assess the sustainable development performance. We base our assumptions that ANFIS can be used to predict the importance of sustainable development pillars from the demographic data of young people. For this purpose, we have conducted an online survey on sustainable development goals opinions and importance of young people in Serbia. The sample of 386 respondents has been split into a training sample of 300 instances (to generate membership functions and fuzzy rules) and a testing sample of 86 instances to predict the importance of the three pillars. We have conducted a trace-driven simulation test to validate the results of the proposed ANFIS model. Results of the study provided insights into how the young people in Serbia assess the importance of sustainable development goals. Secondly, the results suggest that ANFIS can be applied to predict values of importance of the three sustainable development pillars with the relative error of Rel Err < 5%. It must be noted that the considered model could be further improved by using training samples with more data