Päättely suloisimpaan selitykseen ja bayesiläisyys

Only abstract. Paper copies of master’s theses are listed in the Helka database (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Electronic copies of master’s theses are either available as open access or only on thesis terminals in the Helsinki University Library.Vain tiivistelmä. Sidottujen gradujen saatavuuden voit tarkistaa Helka-tietokannasta (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Digitaaliset gradut voivat olla luettavissa avoimesti verkossa tai rajoitetusti kirjaston opinnäytekioskeilla.Endast sammandrag. Inbundna avhandlingar kan sökas i Helka-databasen (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Elektroniska kopior av avhandlingar finns antingen öppet på nätet eller endast tillgängliga i bibliotekets avhandlingsterminaler.Päättelyssä parhaaseen selitykseen eli abduktiossa yhdistyvät nimensä mukaisesti kaksi tieteenfilosofian ongelmakenttää nimittäin tieteellinen päättely ja selittäminen. Abduktio voidaan ymmärtää tietyntyyppisenä induktiivisena päättelynä, jolle on ominaista se, että päättelyä ohjaavat selitykselliset tekijät. Peter Liptonin (2004) teoria päättelystä parhaaseen selitykseen on yksi systemaattisimpia esityksiä abduktiivisesta päättelystä. Liptonin teoria perustuu erotteluun todennäköisimmän ja suloisimman selityksen välillä. Abduktio tulee Liptonin mukaan ymmärtää juuri päättelyksi suloisimpaan selitykseen. Liptonin keskeinen teesi kuitenkin on, että selityksen suloisuus kytkeytyy selityksen todennäköisyyteen. Viimeaikaisessa tutkimuksessa on noussut keskeiseksi kysymys abduktion suhteesta bayesiläisyyteen (Salmon 2001a, 2001b; Lipton 2001a, 2001b; Niiniluoto 1999; Okasha 2000; Psillos 2004). Bayesiläisyys nähdään usein normatiivisena teoriana tieteellisestä päättelystä (Howson ja Urbach 1996, Earman 1992). On esitetty, että abduktio olisi ristiriidassa bayesiläisyyden kanssa (van Fraassen 1989). Toisaalta on pyritty argumentoimaan, että abduktio ja bayesiläisyys ovat yhteensopivia. Lipton (2004) menee kuitenkin tästä vielä askeleen pidemmälle esittäen, että abduktio ja bayesiläisyys itse asiassa täydentävät toisiaan. Tässä tutkimuksessa pyrin selventämään Liptonin teorian ja bayesiläisyyden suhdetta toisiinsa tarkastelemalla, kuinka abduktion selitykselliset tekijät voitaisiin ristiriidattomalla tavalla liittää osaksi bayesiläistä formalismia. Pyrin täsmentämään Liptonin tekemää erottelua suloisimman ja todennäköisimmän selityksen välillä ja analysoin kriittisesti Liptonin väitettä siitä, että selityksen suloisuus voi toimia oppaanamme arvioidessamme selityksen todennäköisyyttä. Suloisimman ja todennäköisimmän selityksen välinen ero on keskeinen, kun tarkastelen, kuinka abduktio voitaisiin kytkeä bayesiläisyyteen, joka perustuu puhtaasti todennäköisyyslaskentaan. Esitän, että selityksen suloisuus ei kytkeydy sellaisenaan mihinkään yksittäiseen tekijään bayesiläisessä viitekehyksessä. Pyrin tutkielmassani osoittamaan, että abduktiolla on tärkeä rooli hypoteesien keksimisessä ja potentiaalisten hypoteesien karsimisessa, joista bayesiläisyys vaikenee täysin. Tällä abduktion roolilla voidaan myös nähdä olevan tietynlainen normatiivinen luonne, sillä se karsii huonot selitykset pois tarkasteltavien hypoteesien joukosta. Toisaalta esitän, että se mikä on hyvä tai huono selitys, on loppujen lopuksi empiirinen kysymys, joka ratkaistaan hypoteeseja testaamalla. Bayesiläisyys pitää myös sisällään monia puutteita, jotka asettavat kyseenalaiseksi sen toimivuuden teoriana hypoteesien testaamisesta. Abduktio näyttäisikin antavan paremman kuvauksen tavasta, jolla tiedemiehet arvioivat evidenssiä ja sen merkittävyyttä, kuin bayesiläisyys, jossa hypoteesin konfirmaation ja evidenssin välillä vallitsee puhtaasti looginen suhde. Selityksellisillä tekijöillä näyttäisi siis olevan paikkansa paitsi hypoteesien keksimisessä myös arvioitaessa evidenssin antamaa tukea hypoteesille. Lähteet: Earman, John (1992): Bayes or Bust? A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confirmation Theory. MIT Press, Cambridge, USA. Howson, Colin ja Urbach, Peter (1996): Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach, 2. painos. Open Court, La Salle, Illinois. Lipton, Peter (2001a): ”What Good Is An Explanation?”. Teoksessa Hon, Giora ja Rakover, Sam. S. (toim.) (2001): Explanation: Theoretical Approaches and Applications. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 43-59. Lipton, Peter (2001b): ”Is Explanation A Guide to Inference? A Reply to Wesley C. Salmon”. Teoksessa Hon, Giora ja Rakover, Sam. S. (toim.) (2001): Explanation: Theoretical Approaches and Applications. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 93-120. Lipton, Peter (2004): Inference to the Best Explanation (2. Painos). Routledge, Lontoo. Niiniluoto, Ilkka (1999): ”Defending Abduction”. Philosophy of Science 66, S436-S451. Okasha, Samir (2000): ”Van Fraassen’s Critique of Inference to the Best Explanation”. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science 31, 691-710. Psillos, Stathis (2004): ”Inference to the Best Explanation and Bayesianism”. National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, http://www.phs.uoa.gr/~psillos/Publications_files/IVC-Psillos.doc (5.11.2006). van Fraassen, Bas C. (1989): Laws and Symmetry. Oxford University Press, New York. Salmon, Wesley C. (2001a): ”Explanation and Confirmation: A Bayesian Critique of Inference to the Best Explanation”. Teoksessa Hon, Giora ja Rakover, Sam. S. (toim.) (2001): Explanation: Theoretical Approaches and Applications. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 61-91. Salmon, Wesley C. (2001b): ”Reflections of a Bashful Bayesian: A Reply to Peter Lipton”. Teoksessa Hon, Giora ja Rakover, Sam. S. (toim.) (2001): Explanation: Theoretical Approaches and Applications. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 121-136

Catatonic features in adolescents with schizophrenia with and without a comorbid pervasive developmental disorder

Peer reviewe

Kalankasvatuksen olosuhdekatsaus 2020

Kalankasvatuksen olosuhdekatsauksen laatiminen on osittain rahoitettu Euroopan meri-ja kalatalousrahaston (EMKR) avustuksella. Katsaus tuottaa tietoa EMKR:n Suomen toimintaohjelman arviointia ja ennakointia varten

Anisotropic Quantum Corrections for 3-D Finite-Element Monte Carlo Simulations of Nanoscale Multigate Transistors

Anisotropic 2-D Schrödinger equation-based quantum corrections dependent on valley orientation are incorporated into a 3-D finite-element Monte Carlo simulation toolbox. The new toolbox is then applied to simulate nanoscale Si Siliconon-Insulator FinFETs with a gate length of 8.1 nm to study the contributions of conduction valleys to the drive current in various FinFET architectures and channel orientations. The 8.1 nm gate length FinFETs are studied for two cross sections: rectangular-like and triangular-like, and for two channel orientations: 〈100〉 and 〈110〉. We have found that quantum anisotropy effects play the strongest role in the triangular-like 〈100〉 channel device increasing the drain current by ~13% and slightly decreasing the current by 2% in the rectangular-like 〈100〉 channel device. The quantum anisotropy has a negligible effect in any device with the 〈110〉 channel orientation

Psychopathic traits among a consecutive sample of Finnish pretrial fire-setting offenders

Background: Psychopathy, a severe disorder of personality, is well represented in the criminal and forensic psychiatric population and is significantly associated with increased risk of violence and crime. Fire-setting is a major source of property damage, injury, and death in many Western countries. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate psychopathic traits in a consecutive sample of Finnish male pretrial fire-setting offenders. Further, we wanted to investigate whether fire-setting recidivists show higher traits of psychopathy than one-time firesetters and whether exclusive firesetters show lower traits of psychopathy than those with criminal versatility. Methods: The forensic psychiatric examination statements for male firesetters who underwent a pretrial forensic psychiatric evaluation during a 10-year period (1989 - 1998) were reviewed. The sample comprised 129 firesetters with normal IQ, 41 of whom were fire-setting recidivists. Fifty men were exclusive firesetters. Assessment of psychopathy-like personality character was performed using the 20-item Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. Results: Two individuals (1.6%, 95% CI: 0.0-3.7) scored >= 30 points and 19 (14.7%, 95% CI: 8.6-20.8) >= 25 points on the PCL-R. The mean PCL-R total score was 16.1 (SD 6.88), the mean Factor 1 score 5.0 (SD 3.41), and the mean Factor 2 score 9.9 (SD 3.86). No significant differences emerged between the recidivists and the one-time firesetters. The versatile firesetters exhibited significantly higher mean total and factor scores than the exclusive ones. Conclusion: Among firesetters, there is a subgroup of persons with significant psychopathic traits, which should be recognized in legal and health care organizations. Although psychopathy was associated with greater criminal versatility, it bore no relationship to fire-setting recidivism.Peer reviewe

3-D Finite Element Monte Carlo Simulations of Scaled Si SOI FinFET With Different Cross Sections

Si SOI FinFETs with gate lengths of 12.8 nm and 10.7 nm are modelled using 3D Finite Element Monte Carlo (MC) simulations with 2D Schroedinger equation quantum corrections. These non-planar transistors are studied for two cross-sections: rectangular-like and triangular-like, and for two channel orientations: h100i and h110i. The 10.7 nm gate length rectangular-like FinFET is also simulated using the 3D Non-Equilibrium Green’s Functions (NEGF) technique and the results are compared with MC simulations. The 12.8 nm and 10.7 nm gate length rectangular-like FinFETs give larger drive currents per perimeter by about 25−27% than the triangular-like shaped but are outperformed by the triangular-like ones when normalised by channel area. The devices with a <100> channel orientation deliver a larger drive current by about 11% than their counterparts with a h110i channel when scaled to 12.8 nm and to 10.7 nm gate lengths. ID–VG characteristics at low and high drain biases obtained from the 3D NEGF simulations show a remarkable agreement with the MC results and overestimate the drain current from a gate bias of 0.5 V only due to exclusion of the interface roughness and ionized impurity scatterings

How do different extracorporeal circulation systems affect metoprolol bioavailability in coronary artery bypass surgery patients

Purpose Cardiac surgery and conventional extracorporeal circulation (CECC) impair the bioavailability of drugs administered by mouth. It is not known whether miniaturized ECC (MECC) or off-pump surgery (OPCAB) affect the bioavailability in similar manner. We evaluated the metoprolol bioavailability in patients undergoing CABG surgery with CECC, MECC, or having OPCAB. Methods Thirty patients, ten in each group, aged 44-79 years, scheduled for CABG surgery were administered 50 mg metoprolol by mouth on the preoperative day at 8-10 a.m. and 8 p.m., 2 h before surgery, and thereafter daily at 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. Blood samples were collected up to 12 h after the morning dose on the preoperative day and on first and third postoperative days. Metoprolol concentration in plasma was analyzed using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Results The absorption of metoprolol was markedly reduced on the first postoperative day in all three groups, but recovered to the preoperative level on the third postoperative day. The geometric means (90% confidence interval) of AUC(0-12) on the first and third postoperative days versus the preoperative day were 44 (26-74)% and 109 (86-139)% in the CECC-group, 28 (16-50)% and 79 (59-105)% in the MECC-group, and 26 (12-56)% and 96 (77-119)% in the OPCAB-group, respectively. Two patients in the CECC-group and two in the MECC-group developed atrial fibrillation (AF). The bioavailability and the drug concentrations of metoprolol in patients developing AF did not differ from those who remained in sinus rhythm. Conclusion The bioavailability of metoprolol by mouth was markedly reduced in the early phase after CABG with no difference between the CECC-, MECC-, and OPCAB-groups.Peer reviewe

Subjective outcomes of psychotherapeutic interventions: a naturalistic follow-up study among Finnish adolescent psychiatric outpatients

In adolescence, the prevalence of mental disorders doubles compared to childhood and the need for interventions to reduce psychological symptoms increases. Most evidence-based psychotherapeutic interventions are focused on single conditions, but in clinical practice most patients suffer from psychiatric comorbidity. However, research on effective treatment interventions for adolescents in a naturalistic setting is scarce. The aim of this three-month follow-up study was to investigate subjective outcomes of psychotherapeutic interventions in a naturalistic setting among adolescent psychiatric outpatients. The intention was to also find out if verbally performed psychotherapies were more effective than art and occupational therapies in symptom reduction. Further, to investigate whether the frequency of intervention or the severity of self-reported depressive symptoms were related to treatment effect. This study was conducted at the Helsinki University Central Hospital, Department of Adolescent Psychiatry. The study is part of an ongoing longitudinal study focusing on the effectiveness of psychotherapeutic interventions, started in February 2012. The sample comprised 58 adolescents, with a mean age of 14.2 years, referred to psychotherapy or to art and occupational therapies. The Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation-Outcome-Measure (CORE-OM) were used as self-assessments both at baseline and the follow-up. The adolescents experienced symptom reduction during the first months of psychotherapeutic treatment. Symptom reduction was related to the frequency, but not to the form, of psychotherapeutic intervention. The life functioning of adolescents with severe depression improved more than those with only mild or moderate depression. In conclusion, psychotherapeutic interventions are effective in reducing the subjective symptoms of clinically referred adolescents with psychiatric disorders. Art and occupational therapies are as effective as psychotherapies in reducing symptoms. The frequency of intervention, as well as the level of depression prior to the intervention, seems to modify the outcome.In adolescence, the prevalence of mental disorders doubles compared to childhood and the need for interventions to reduce psychological symptoms increases. Most evidence-based psychotherapeutic interventions are focused on single conditions, but in clinical practice most patients suffer from psychiatric comorbidity. However, research on effective treatment interventions for adolescents in a naturalistic setting is scarce. The aim of this three-month follow-up study was to investigate subjective outcomes of psychotherapeutic interventions in a naturalistic setting among adolescent psychiatric outpatients. The intention was to also find out if verbally performed psychotherapies were more effective than art and occupational therapies in symptom reduction. Further, to investigate whether the frequency of intervention or the severity of self-reported depressive symptoms were related to treatment effect. This study was conducted at the Helsinki University Central Hospital, Department of Adolescent Psychiatry. The study is part of an ongoing longitudinal study focusing on the effectiveness of psychotherapeutic interventions, started in February 2012. The sample comprised 58 adolescents, with a mean age of 14.2 years, referred to psychotherapy or to art and occupational therapies. The Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation-Outcome-Measure (CORE-OM) were used as self-assessments both at baseline and the follow-up. The adolescents experienced symptom reduction during the first months of psychotherapeutic treatment. Symptom reduction was related to the frequency, but not to the form, of psychotherapeutic intervention. The life functioning of adolescents with severe depression improved more than those with only mild or moderate depression. In conclusion, psychotherapeutic interventions are effective in reducing the subjective symptoms of clinically referred adolescents with psychiatric disorders. Art and occupational therapies are as effective as psychotherapies in reducing symptoms. The frequency of intervention, as well as the level of depression prior to the intervention, seems to modify the outcome.Peer reviewe

Vaarallisuuden arviointi – sattuman summaako?

Artikkeli on kirjallisuuskatsaus vaarallisuuden ja väkivaltariskin arviointimenetelmistä ja niiden käyttökelpoisuudesta oikeuspsykiatrisen tehtäväalueen ja oikeuslaitoksen tarpeisiin. Lisäksi artikkelissa pohditaan ja etsitään vastausta seuraaviin kysymyksiin: Miten määritellään rikoksentekijän vaarallisuus tai väkivaltariski? Voidaanko rikoksentekijän vaarallisuutta tai riskiä syyllistyä uudestaan väkivaltaiseen tekoon ylipäätään ennalta arvioida? Jos voidaan, mikä on validi menetelmä arvioida vaarallisuutta tai väkivaltariskiä? (Edilex-toimitus