Using a model-based geostatistical approach to design and analyse the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Kenya

BackgroundInfections caused by both Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium are endemic in Kenya, with over six million children at risk. A national school-based deworming programme was launched in 2012 with the goal of eliminating parasitic worms as a public health problem. This study used a model-based geostatistical (MBG) approach to design and analyse the impact of the programme and inform treatment strategy changes for schistosomiasis (SCH).MethodsA cross-sectional survey of 200 schools across 27 counties of Kenya was utilised. The study design, selection of the schools, and analysis followed the MBG approach, which incorporated historical data on treatment, morbidity, and environmental covariates.ResultsThe overall SCH prevalence was 5.0% (95% CI 4.9%–5.2%) and was estimated, with a high predictive probability of 0.999, to be between 1% and< 10%. The predictive probabilities at county level revealed county heterogeneity, with that of four counties estimated to be between 0% and< 1%, that of 20 counties estimated to be between 1% and< 10%, that of two counties estimated to be between 10% and< 20%, and that of one county estimated to be between 20% and< 50%.ConclusionSCH treatment requirements can now be confidently refined based on the World Health Organization’s guidelines. The four counties with prevalences of between 0% and< 1% may consider suspending treatment only in areas (i.e., sub-counties and wards) where the prevalence is< 1%

The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle

The role of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) horizontal resolution in representing the global energy budget and hydrological cycle is assessed, with the aim of improving the understanding of model uncertainties in simulating the hydrological cycle. We use two AGCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM1-A at resolutions ranging from 270 to 60 km, and HadGEM3-A ranging from 135 to 25 km. The models exhibit a stable hydrological cycle, although too intense compared to reanalyses and observations. This over-intensity is explained by excess surface shortwave radiation, a common error in general circulation models (GCMs). This result is insensitive to resolution. However, as resolution is increased, precipitation decreases over the ocean and increases over the land. This is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land, which changes the partitioning of moisture fluxes that contribute to precipitation over land from less local to more non-local moisture sources. The results start to converge at 60-km resolution, which underlines the excessive reliance of the mean hydrological cycle on physical parametrization (local unresolved processes) versus model dynamics (large-scale resolved processes) in coarser HadGEM1 and HadGEM3 GCMs. This finding may be valid for other GCMs, showing the necessity to analyze other chains of GCMs that may become available in the future with such a range of horizontal resolutions. Our finding supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in model parametrization is one of the underlying causes of model disagreement in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises

Using a model-based geostatistical approach to design and analyse the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Kenya

Background: Infections caused by both Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium are endemic in Kenya, with over six million children at risk. A national school-based deworming programme was launched in 2012 with the goal of eliminating parasitic worms as a public health problem. This study used a model-based geostatistical (MBG) approach to design and analyse the impact of the programme and inform treatment strategy changes for schistosomiasis (SCH). Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 200 schools across 27 counties of Kenya was utilised. The study design, selection of the schools, and analysis followed the MBG approach, which incorporated historical data on treatment, morbidity, and environmental covariates. Results: The overall SCH prevalence was 5.0% (95% CI 4.9%–5.2%) and was estimated, with a high predictive probability of 0.999, to be between 1% and< 10%. The predictive probabilities at county level revealed county heterogeneity, with that of four counties estimated to be between 0% and< 1%, that of 20 counties estimated to be between 1% and< 10%, that of two counties estimated to be between 10% and< 20%, and that of one county estimated to be between 20% and< 50%. Conclusion: SCH treatment requirements can now be confidently refined based on the World Health Organization’s guidelines. The four counties with prevalences of between 0% and< 1% may consider suspending treatment only in areas (i.e., sub-counties and wards) where the prevalence is< 1%

Model-based geostatistical design and analysis of prevalence for soil-transmitted helminths in Kenya:Results from ten-years of the Kenya national school-based deworming programme

Background Kenya is endemic for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) with over 6 million children in 27 counties currently at-risk. A national school-based deworming programme (NSBDP) was launched in 2012 with a goal to eliminate parasitic worms as a public health problem. This study used model-based geostatistical (MBG) approach to design and analyse the impact of the NSBDP and inform treatment strategy changes. Methods A cross-sectional study was used to survey 200 schools across 27 counties in Kenya. The study design, school selection and analysis followed the MBG approach which incorporated historical data on treatment, morbidity and environmental covariates to efficiently predict the helminths prevalence in Kenya. Results Overall, the NSBDP geographic area prevalence for any STH was estimated to sit between 2 % and 0.999. Species-specific thresholds were between 2 % and 0.999. Conclusions Based on the World Health Organization guidelines, STH treatment requirements can now be confidently refined. Ten counties may consider suspending treatment and implement appropriate surveillance system, while another 10 will require treatment once every two years, and the remaining seven will require treatment once every year

NCCN Guidelines® Insights: Genetic/Familial High-Risk Assessment: Breast, Ovarian, and Pancreatic, Version 2.2024.

The NCCN Guidelines for Genetic/Familial High-Risk Assessment: Breast, Ovarian, and Pancreatic focus primarily on assessment of pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants associated with increased risk of breast, ovarian, pancreatic, and prostate cancer, including BRCA1, BRCA2, CDH1, PALB2, PTEN, and TP53, and recommended approaches to genetic counseling/testing and care strategies in individuals with these P/LP variants. These NCCN Guidelines Insights summarize important updates regarding: (1) a new section for transgender, nonbinary and gender diverse people who have a hereditary predisposition to cancer focused on risk reduction strategies for ovarian cancer, uterine cancer, prostate cancer, and breast cancer; and (2) testing criteria and management associated with TP53 P/LP variants and Li-Fraumeni syndrome

Beyond Band Termination in 157 Er and the Search for Wobbling Excitations in Strongly Deformed 174 Hf

High-spin terminating bands in heavy nuclei were first identified in nuclei around 158Er90. While examples of special terminating states have been identified in a number of erbium isotopes, almost nothing is known about the states lying beyond band termination. In the present work the high-spin structure of 157Er has been studied using the Gammasphere spectrometer. The subject of triaxial superdeformation and 'wobbling' modes in Lu nuclei has rightly attracted a great deal of attention. Very recently, four strongly or superdeformed (SD) sequences have been observed in 174Hf and ultimate cranker calculations predict such structures may have significant triaxial deformation. We have performed two experiments in an attempt to verify the possible triaxial nature of these bands. A lifetime measurement was performed to confirm the large (and similar) deformation of the bands. In addition, a high-statistics, thin-target experiment was run to search for linking transitions between the SD bands and possible wobbling modes