Luonnon ääri-ilmiöihin liittyvien vaarojen arviointi prosessilaitoksilla

Ilmastonmuutoksen myötä luonnon ääri-ilmiöt voivat voimistua ja niiden esiintyminen lisääntyä. Prosessilaitoksia velvoitetaan varautumaan luonnonvaaroihin. Ääri-ilmiöiden yleistymisen myötä monet tahot ovat tutkineet luonnonvaaroja ja julkaisseet erilaisia ohjeistuksia sekä suosituksia niihin varautumiseen liittyen prosessiteollisuudessa. Etenkin EU:n alainen JRC (Joint Research Center) on rahoittanut paljon tutkimusta luonnonvaaroihin liittyen ja julkaissut kattavasti ohjeistuksia ja työkaluja luonnonvaarojen arviointiin. Tiedon ja kokemuksen puute tekee luonnonvaarojen arvioinnista ja niihin varautumisesta haastavaa. Ilmiöstä, maantieteellisestä sijainnista ja alueella toimivista tahoista riippuen ääri-ilmiöiden voimakkuuteen ja esiintymistiheyteen liittyvää tietoa voi olla puutteellisesti saatavilla. Tämä hankaloittaa riskianalyysejä ja päätöksentekoa varautumiskeinoista. Tiedon puutteen takia tässä työssä ei ole yritetty arvioida riskejä vaan on keskitytty vaarojen ja seurausten arviointiin. Tämän työn tarkoituksena on kehittää menettelytavat luonnon ääri-ilmiöiden hallintaan Neste Oyj:ssä. Opinnäytetyön tuloksena syntyvän konserniohjeen sisällön kannalta oleellisinta oli luoda menetelmä vaarojen ja seurausten arviointiin. Sen tarkoituksena on vastata tarkasteltavan kohteen kannalta kysymyksiin ”mitkä luonnonilmiöt tulee huomioida kyseisessä kohteessa” ja ”onko niihin varauduttu riittävällä tasolla”. Teoriaosuudessa tarkastellaan ja määritellään prosessilaitosten kannalta oleelliset luonnon ääri-ilmiöt sekä niihin liittyvien vaarojen ja seurausten arviointiin käytettävät menetelmät. Lisäksi esitetään keskeinen lainsäädäntö sekä hyvän ohjeen periaatteet. Työn tarkoituksena oli selvittää mitä luonnon ääri-ilmiöt tarkoittavat prosessilaitosten kannalta ja mitä menetelmiä voidaan käyttää niiden arviointiin. Ääri-ilmiöt voivat erityisesti aiheuttaa erilaisia ympäristöön, henkilöstöön tai omaisuuteen liittyviä seurauksia. Usein jokin skenaario voi vaikuttaa moneen eri asiaan ja aiheuttaa vahinkoa samanaikaisesti, mikä tekee niiden hallinnasta haastavaa. Luonnonvaarojen arviointiin on julkaistu erilaisia ohjeistuksia ja menetelmiä, mutta tiedon ja resurssien puute ovat edelleen haasteita luonnonvaarojen arvioinnissa teollisuuden toimijoille. Työn kokeellisessa osassa kehitettyä konserniohjetta pilotoitiin kahdessa eri kohteessa. Pilottien tuloksia käytettiin ohjeen kehityksessä, kokeilussa ja kohteiden nykytilanteen arviointiin niiden varautumisesta luonnon ääri-ilmiöihin. Ensimmäinen pilottikohde oli Nesteen Porvoon jalostamon jätevesilaitos ja sen kohdalla oleellisiksi ilmiöiksi tunnistettiin mm. rankkasateet, äärimmäiset lämpötilat ja myrskyt. Kohteen varautumisen tasoa pidettiin yleisesti hyvänä ja pääasiassa toimenpiteiksi määritettiin varautumissuunnitelmien laatiminen. Toinen pilottikohde oli Espanjaan suunnitteilla oleva pilottilaitos. Tässä kohteessa merkittävimpiä ilmiöitä olivat maanjäristykset, rankkasateet, tulvat sekä maan vajoaminen. Analyysi osoittautui hankalaksi, sillä laitosta ja täten varautumiskeinoja ei ole vielä olemassa. Toisaalta se koettiin tärkeäksi tarkasteluksi, koska laitoksen suunnitteluperusteisiin ja varautumiskeinoihin voidaan vielä vaikuttaa merkittävästi

Impact of Aspects of the Law of Evidence in Sexual Offence Trials: An Evaluation Study

This presents the findings from an evaluation of changes to the law of evidence in sex offence trials, restricting the use of evidence and questioning concerning complainers’ sexual history and character

Research and Practice in Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Children and Young People Engaging in Offending Behaviour

This study has been undertaken with the main aim of providing an evaluation of the literature on research and practice in relation to the risk assessment and risk management of children and young people engaging in offending behaviours, to be used to inform the RMA’s future work in these fields. The study incorporates two aspects: a review of national and international literature on the practices and processes of risk assessment and risk management of children and young people who engage in offending behaviour, with particular reference to violent offending and sexually harmful behaviour, and a review of current practice in the assessment and management of children and young people at risk of harm and re-offending in Scotland, carried out by means of telephone interviews with academic researchers and practitioners working in statutory and voluntary sectors across Scotland

Skin-Test Screening and Tuberculosis Transmission among the Homeless1

We describe the implementation of a mandatory tuberculosis (TB) screening program that uses symptom screening and tuberculin skin testing in homeless shelters. We used the results of DNA fingerprinting of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates to evaluate the effect of the program on TB incidence and transmission. After the program was implemented, the proportion of cases among homeless persons detected by screening activities increased, and the estimated TB incidence decreased from 510 to 121 cases per 100,000 population per year. Recent transmission, defined by DNA fingerprinting analysis as clustered patterns occurring within 2 years, decreased from 49% to 14% (p=0.03). Our results suggest that the shelter-based screening program decreased the incidence of TB by decreasing its transmission among the homeless

Programming of endogenous and exogenous saccades: Evidence for a competitive integration model

this article. Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Richard Godijn, Department of Cognitive Psychology, Vrije Universiteit, Van Der Boechorststraat 1, 1081 BT Amsterdam, the Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected] Journal of Experimental Psychology: Copyright 2002 by the American Psychological Association, Inc. Human Perception and Performance 2002, Vol. 28, No. 5, 1039--1054 0096-1523/02/$5.00 DOI: 10.1037//0096-1523.28.5.1039 1039 inhibitory (Figure 1B), but when two nearby locations are activated, the combined activation results in a relatively high peak somewhere between the two locations (Figure 1C). In accordance with Trappenberg et al. (2001), the execution of a saccade is triggered when the activation at a specific location in the saccade map reaches threshold. Trappenberg et al. (2001) developed a neural-field model based on the principle of competitive integration of exogenous and endogenous signals in the SC. Their model produced activity patterns very similar to activity patterns of cells in the SC. Furthermore, the saccade latencies of the model fit well with a range of oculomotor effects, such as the remote distractor effect. The remote distractor effect (e.g., Walker, Deubel, Schneider, & Findlay, 1997) refers to the finding that saccade latencies are longer when a target is presented simultaneously with a distractor but only when the distance between target and onset is relatively large. Furthermore, when the distractor is presented near the target, the eyes often land in between target and distractor (global effect or center-of-gravity effect; e.g., Coren & Hoenig, 1972; Findlay, 1982). These findings are consistent with the lateral inhibition structure of the competitive integration model. However, it is important to note ..

Three cases with chronic obsessive compulsive disorder report gains in wellbeing and function following rituximab treatment

Immunological aetiology is supported for a subgroup with obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) and conceptualized as autoimmune OCD. The longitudinal clinical course is detailed for three severely ill cases with OCD and indications of immunological involvement with off-label rituximab treatment every six months. All cases showed clear and sustained gains regarding symptom burden and function for over 2.5 years. Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale and Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Inventory Scale scores decreased 67-100% and 44-92%, respectively. These complex cases, prior to rituximab, had very low functioning and disease duration has been eight, nine and 16 years respectively. All three patients had been unsuccessfully treated with at least two antidepressants or anxiolytics, one neuroleptic and cognitive behavioural therapy. Clinical phenotypes and findings were suggestive of possible autoimmune OCD. Indirect immunohistochemistry detected cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) antibodies in all three cases including a novel anti-neuronal staining pattern against mouse thalamic cells. Exploratory analyses of CSF markers and proteomics identified elevated levels of sCD27 and markers indicative of complement pathway activation when compared to CSF from healthy controls. Multidisciplinary collaboration, advanced clinical investigations and rituximab treatment are feasible in a psychiatric setting. The case histories provide a proof of principle for the newly proposed criteria for autoimmune OCD. The findings suggest that clinical red flags and biological measures may predict rituximab response in chronic treatment-resistant OCD. The report provides orientation that may inform the hypotheses and design of future treatment trials

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

SummaryBackground Azithromycin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its immunomodulatoryactions. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.Methods In this randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19Therapy [RECOVERY]), several possible treatments were compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospitalwith COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients wererandomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus azithromycin 500 mg once perday by mouth or intravenously for 10 days or until discharge (or allocation to one of the other RECOVERY treatmentgroups). Patients were assigned via web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment andwere twice as likely to be randomly assigned to usual care than to any of the active treatment groups. Participants andlocal study staff were not masked to the allocated treatment, but all others involved in the trial were masked to theoutcome data during the trial. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treatpopulation. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.Findings Between April 7 and Nov 27, 2020, of 16 442 patients enrolled in the RECOVERY trial, 9433 (57%) wereeligible and 7763 were included in the assessment of azithromycin. The mean age of these study participants was65·3 years (SD 15·7) and approximately a third were women (2944 [38%] of 7763). 2582 patients were randomlyallocated to receive azithromycin and 5181 patients were randomly allocated to usual care alone. Overall,561 (22%) patients allocated to azithromycin and 1162 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days(rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·87–1·07; p=0·50). No significant difference was seen in duration of hospital stay (median10 days [IQR 5 to >28] vs 11 days [5 to >28]) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days(rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·98–1·10; p=0·19). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, nosignificant difference was seen in the proportion meeting the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilationor death (risk ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·87–1·03; p=0·24).Interpretation In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, azithromycin did not improve survival or otherprespecified clinical outcomes. Azithromycin use in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 should be restrictedto patients in whom there is a clear antimicrobial indication

Computational fluid dynamics for dispersion calculation in urban surroundings

Increased knowledge on dispersion processes in urban environment will enhance the ability in the society to handle events where releases of toxic substances can occur. Also, the ability to increase preparedness at locations where such events potentially can emerge.  Can Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models contribute to increased knowledge and what type of models are most suitable considering dispersion in urban environment?  CFD-models can simulate almost any scenario but urban scales are still computationally de-manding. Simplifications of the basic equations are needed. Mainly two methods to do this is feasible, namely Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes models (RANS) and Large Eddy Simula-tion models (LES). These methods are commonly used for hydrodynamic flow studies. In this thesis the eddy viscosity hypothesis is implemented and used in all turbulence models.  The scenarios studied includes flow and dispersion past objects at the side of a road, flow over buildings, dispersion in urban environments and on synthetic stochastic boundary condi-tions. The basic flow around objects assume that the turbulence is realistically modelled. In RANS the flow is steady state while the turbulence is fully modelled. In LES only the smallest turbulent eddies are modelled while the flow is resolved in time. In the urban environment tur-bulent fluctuations have the dimension of the buildings and the wind speed. Thus, it is important that these fluctuations are correctly described for the purpose of the simulation with a CFD-model. The results show that CFD can replace the real world in well specified scenarios when stud-ying certain aspects, like effects from objects in the path of the dispersion and effects of atmos-pheric stability. However, the simulations of dispersion in urban environments show that RANS and LES models can produce quite unequal results regarding hazard area estimation. When comparing LES results to data from full scale experiments, it is clear that LES-models have fundamental ability to handle effects found in real life. Here can be mentioned dispersion paths and maximum values which are important when estimating the extent of hazard areas. On the other hand specific temporal fluctuations can hardly be predicted, only statistics. Finally, by using synthetic inflow boundary conditions, realistic representation of spectra of turbulent kinetic energy is enforced in areas with low and sparse buildings. In the high rise building area the building interaction with the flow develops a turbulent urban sub layer that is not much influenced from the inflow boundary. By studying synthetic forcing as a part of the boundary conditions together with a stably stratified boundary layer, more tools to simulate the real world events are examined