Drug Burden Index is a Modifiable Predictor of 30-Day-Hospitalization in Community-Dwelling Older Adults with Complex Care Needs:Machine Learning Analysis of InterRAI Data

BACKGROUND: Older adults (≥ 65 years) account for a disproportionately high proportion of hospitalization and in-hospital mortality, some of which may be avoidable. Although machine learning (ML) models have already been built and validated for predicting hospitalization and mortality, there remains a significant need to optimise ML models further. Accurately predicting hospitalization may tremendously impact the clinical care of older adults as preventative measures can be implemented to improve clinical outcomes for the patient.METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, a dataset of 14,198 community-dwelling older adults (≥ 65 years) with complex care needs from the Inter-Resident Assessment Instrument database was used to develop and optimise three ML models to predict 30-day-hospitalization. The models developed and optimized were Random Forest (RF), XGBoost (XGB), and Logistic Regression (LR). Variable importance plots were generated for all three models to identify key predictors of 30-day-hospitalization.RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the RF, XGB and LR models were 0.97, 0.90 and 0.72, respectively. Variable importance plots identified the Drug Burden Index and alcohol consumption as important, immediately potentially modifiable variables in predicting 30-day-hospitalization.CONCLUSIONS: Identifying immediately potentially modifiable risk factors such as the Drug Burden Index and alcohol consumption is of high clinical relevance. If clinicians can influence these variables, they could proactively lower the risk of 30-day-hospitalization. ML holds promise to improve the clinical care of older adults. It is crucial that these models undergo extensive validation through large-scale clinical studies before being utilized in the clinical setting.</p

Factors associated with inappropriate prescribing among older adults with complex care needs who have undergone the interRAI assessment

<p><b>Aim:</b> To identify factors associated with prescribing potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) in older adults (≥65 years) with complex care needs, who have undertaken a comprehensive geriatric risk assessment.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> A nationwide cross-sectional (retrospective, observational) study was performed. The national interRAI Home Care assessments conducted in New Zealand in 2015 for older adults were linked to the national pharmaceutical prescribing data (PHARMS). The 2015 Beers criteria were applied to the cross-matched data to identify the prevalence of PIMs. The factors influencing PIMs were analyzed using a multinomial logistic regression model.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> In total, 16,568 older adults were included in this study. Individuals diagnosed with cancer, dementia, insomnia, depression, anxiety, and who were hospitalized in the last 90 days were more likely to be prescribed PIMs than those who were not diagnosed with the above disorders, and who were not hospitalized in the last 90 days. Individuals over 75 years of age, the Māori ethnic group among other ethnicities, individuals who were diagnosed with certain clinical conditions (diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, or congestive cardiac failure), individuals requiring assistance with activities of daily living, and better self-reported health, were associated with a lesser likelihood of being prescribed PIMs.</p> <p><b>Conclusion:</b> The study emphasizes the identification of factors associated with the prescription of PIMs during the first completed comprehensive geriatric assessment. Targeted strategies to reduce modifiable factors associated with the prescription of PIMs in subsequent assessments has the potential to improve medication management in older adults.</p

Frailty of Māori, Pasifika, and non-Māori/non-Pasifika older people in New Zealand: a national population study of older people referred for home care services

Little is known about the prevalence of frailty in indigenous populations. We developed a frailty index for older New Zealand Māori and Pasifika who require publicly funded support services.A frailty index (FI) was developed for New Zealand adults aged ≥65 years who had an interRAI-Home Care assessment between 1 June 2012 and 30 October 2015. A frailty score for each participant was calculated by summing the number of deficits recorded and dividing by the total number of possible deficits. This created a FI with a potential range from 0 to 1. Linear regression models for FIs with ethnicity were adjusted for age and sex. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between the FI and mortality for Māori, Pasifika, and non-Māori/non-Pasifika.Of 54,345 participants, 3,096 (5.7%) identified as Māori, 1,846 (3.4%) were Pasifika, and 49,415 (86.7%) identified as neither Māori nor Pasifika. New Zealand Europeans (48,178, 97.5%) constituted most of the latter group. Within each sex, the mean FIs for Māori and Pasifika were greater than the mean FIs for non-Māori and non-Pasifika, with the difference being more pronounced in females. The FI was associated with mortality (Māori SHR 2.53, 95% CI 1.63 to 3.95; Pasifika SHR 6.03, 95% CI 3.06 to 11.90; non-Māori and non-Pasifika SHR 2.86, 95% 2.53 to 3.25).This study demonstrated differences in FI between the ethnicities in this select cohort. After adjustment for age and sex, increases in FI were associated with increased mortality. This suggests that FI is predictive of poor outcomes in these ethnic groups

Resveratrol Delays Age-Related Deterioration and Mimics Transcriptional Aspects of Dietary Restriction without Extending Life Span

22 páginas, 4 figuras.A small molecule that safely mimics the ability of dietary restriction (DR) to delay age-related diseases in laboratory animals is greatly sought after. We and others have shown that resveratrol mimics effects of DR in lower organisms. In mice, we find that resveratrol induces gene expression patterns in multiple tissues that parallel those induced by DR and every-other-day feeding. Moreover, resveratrol-fed elderly mice show a marked reduction in signs of aging, including reduced albuminuria, decreased inflammation, and apoptosis in the vascular endothelium, increased aortic elasticity, greater motor coordination, reduced cataract formation, and preserved bone mineral density. However, mice fed a standard diet did not live longer when treated with resveratrol beginning at 12 months of age. Our findings indicate that resveratrol treatment has a range of beneficial effects in mice but does not increase the longevity of ad libitum-fed animals when started midlife.This work was supported by grants from the American Heart Association (0425834T to J.A.B. and 0435140N to A.C.) and from the NIH (RO1GM068072, AG19972, and AG19719 to D.A.S.), (HL077256 to Z.U.), (HD034089 to L.W), (2RO1 EY011733 to N.S.W.), Spanish grant (BFU2005-03017 to P.N.), and by the generous support of Mr. Paul F. Glenn and The Paul F. Glenn Laboratories for the Biological Mechanisms of Aging.Peer reviewe

Drug burden index and its association with hip fracture among older adults:a national population-based study

Background: The Drug Burden Index (DBI) calculates the total sedative and anticholinergic load of prescribed medications and is associated with functional decline and hip fractures in older adults. However, it is unknown if confounding factors influence the relationship between the DBI and hip fractures. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between the DBI and hip fractures, after correcting for mortality and multiple potential confounding factors. Methods: A competing-risks regression analysis conducted on a prospectively recruited New Zealand community-dwelling older population who had a standardized (International Resident Assessment Instrument) assessment between September 1, 2012, and October 31, 2015, the study's end date. Outcome measures were survival status and hip fracture, with time-varying DBI exposure derived from 90-day time intervals. The multivariable competing-risks regression model was adjusted for a large number of medical comorbidities and activities of daily living. Results: Among 70,553 adults assessed, 2,249 (3.2%) experienced at least one hip fracture, 20,194 (28.6%) died without experiencing a fracture, and 48,110 (68.2%) survived without a fracture. The mean follow-up time was 14.9 months (range: 1 day, 37.9 months). The overall DBI distribution was highly skewed, with median time-varying DBI exposure ranging from 0.93 (Q = 0.0, Q = 1.84) to 0.96 (Q = 0.0, Q = 1.90). DBI was significantly related to fracture incidence in unadjusted (

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P &lt; 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Drug Burden Index is a Modifiable Predictor of 30-Day-Hospitalization in Community-Dwelling Older Adults with Complex Care Needs:Machine Learning Analysis of InterRAI Data

BACKGROUND: Older adults (≥ 65 years) account for a disproportionately high proportion of hospitalization and in-hospital mortality, some of which may be avoidable. Although machine learning (ML) models have already been built and validated for predicting hospitalization and mortality, there remains a significant need to optimise ML models further. Accurately predicting hospitalization may tremendously impact the clinical care of older adults as preventative measures can be implemented to improve clinical outcomes for the patient.METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, a dataset of 14,198 community-dwelling older adults (≥ 65 years) with complex care needs from the Inter-Resident Assessment Instrument database was used to develop and optimise three ML models to predict 30-day-hospitalization. The models developed and optimized were Random Forest (RF), XGBoost (XGB), and Logistic Regression (LR). Variable importance plots were generated for all three models to identify key predictors of 30-day-hospitalization.RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the RF, XGB and LR models were 0.97, 0.90 and 0.72, respectively. Variable importance plots identified the Drug Burden Index and alcohol consumption as important, immediately potentially modifiable variables in predicting 30-day-hospitalization.CONCLUSIONS: Identifying immediately potentially modifiable risk factors such as the Drug Burden Index and alcohol consumption is of high clinical relevance. If clinicians can influence these variables, they could proactively lower the risk of 30-day-hospitalization. ML holds promise to improve the clinical care of older adults. It is crucial that these models undergo extensive validation through large-scale clinical studies before being utilized in the clinical setting.</p

Falls and hip fractures associated with urinary incontinence among older men and women with complex needs: A national population study

To determine if urinary incontinence (UI) was an independent risk factor for falls and hip fractures in community-dwelling older men and women with complex needs, after controlling for confounders.Since 2012, all community care recipients in New Zealand have undergone standardized needs assessments using the Home Care International Residential Assessment Instrument (interRAI-HC). The interRAI-HC elicits information over multiple domains, including UI frequency and falls. Those aged 65+ years with assessment between July 1, 2012 and May 31, 2014 without collection devices or indwelling catheters were matched to hospital, mortality, and pharmaceutical databases, and apposite regression models applied.Overall, 25 257 (37.5%) men and 42 032 (62.5%) women were eligible, with average age of 82.7 years (range: 65, 106 years). Incontinence was reported by 34.3% of men and 42.6% of women, falls within 90 days by 42.7% of men and 39.1% of women; and fractures recorded for 2.5% of men and 3.7% of women. In multivariable analysis, UI was significantly associated with falls (P

An epidemiological profile of communication disability among older adults with complex needs: a national cross-sectional study

Purpose: Research on the prevalence of communication disability among community living older adults is scant, and often suffers from limitations. Using a national database, this study presents an epidemiological profile of communication disability in older community residents within New Zealand and examines whether ethnic populations are disproportionately represented. Method: Since 2012, all New Zealand community care recipients have undergone a standardised needs assessment, which includes questions directed at expressive and receptive language abilities. Those assessed between 1 September 2012 and 31 January 2016, aged ≥65 years, and who provided consent were included. Directly standardised prevalence estimates were calculated and logistic regression used to investigate age, sex and ethnic differences. Result: Overall, 71\ua0859 people were eligible (mean age = 82.7 years, 61% female, 89.2% European/other), with 30.6% and 36.2% exhibiting at least some expression and comprehension communication disability, respectively. Māori, Pasifika and Asian people, males and those who were older were more likely to have at least some communication disability compared to their European/other, female and younger counterparts. Conclusion: Communication disability is common among older adults. With the increased provision of home-based integrated models of care, the impact of communication disability on service seeking and delivery must be recognised and accommodated