Decision-Making and Statistical Standards

NASA speech on use of statistical methods in governmental decision makin

Making History: An Insider's View of the Founding and First-Ten-Year Accomplishments of the American Real Estate Society

This article presents an overview of the numerous innovations of the American Real Estate Society during its first ten years. Many of its accomplishments are unique for an academically based organization. Because of this, the definition of an academic/professional organization has been changed forever due to the synergistic effects of mixing practicing professionals and applied academicians.

Microvariability in BL Lacertae : "zooming'' into the innermost blazar regions

In this work, we present the results of our multi-band microvariability study of the famous blazar BL Lac. We performed microvariablity observations of the source in the optical VRI bands for four nights in 2016. We studied the intranight flux and spectral variability of the source in detail with an objective to characterize microvariability in the blazars, a frequently observed phenomenon in blazars. The results show that the source often displays a fast flux variability with an amplitude as large as ~0.2 magnitude within a few hours, and that the color variability in the similar time scales can be characterized as “bluer-when-brighter” trend. We also observed markedly curved optical spectrum during one of the nights. Furthermore, the correlation between multi-band emission shows that in general the emission in all the bands are highly correlated; and in one of the nights V band emission was found to lead the I band emission by ~13 min. The search for characteristic timescale using z-transformed auto-correlation function and the structure function analyses reveals characteristic timescale of ~50 min in one of the R band observations. We try to explain the observed results in the context of the passage of shock waves through the relativistic outflows in blazars

The disrupters: Lessons for low-carbon innovation from the new wave of environmental pioneers

We need disruptive forms of innovation 13 cheaper, easier-to-use alternatives to existing products or services, often produced by non-traditional players for previously ignored customers. This report tells the stories of eight such "disrupters" and draws wider lessons for low-carbon innovation. Its recommendations include: 1. Government should provide an enabling policy framework within which low-carbon innovation ca

Assessing Risk for International Real Estate Investments

Overseas real estate investment has increased considerably in recent years. The assessment of risk for these investments, especially for real estate, has thus become very important. This study assesses the performance of real estate, stocks and bonds in the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand over the period 1985-93. The results indicate that the degree of appraisal-smoothing and intertemporal correlation in each of the five international real estate series is significant, resulting in the need to increase the real estate risk estimates by 34% to 47%. To account for currency risk over this nine-year period, currency-adjusted returns and risk were also estimated for investors from each of these five countries. All risk profiles increased significantly for international investors when adjusting for currency risk. However, additional portfolio diversification was achieved using real estate for international investors.

Pricing Interest-Rate Risk for Mortgage REITs

Using tax-qualified mortgage REITs over three periods (1976-79, 1980-82, and 1983-90), this paper investigates the pricing of interest-rate risk for mortgage REITs at equilibrium. A system of nonlinear equations is estimated to determine the monthly interest-rate risk premium over each of the three time intervals. There is evidence to support the hypothesis that interest-rate risk is not diversifiable and hence commands a risk premium.

Estimation of Apartment Submarkets

The analysis of apartment sub-markets and the modelling of such markets have attracted a considerable degree of attention recently. This study compares apartment submarkets within a major European city. The price behaviour of the Dublin, Ireland apartment market is tested using hedonic models and aggregate and disaggregate data. The results strongly indicate that the modelling of apartment markets at the disaggregate level does result in significant improvements in estimation in comparison to estimations undertaken at an aggregate level. This particular apartment market is especially interesting, due to the introduction of fiscal incentives in inner-city locations. In order to fully understand the Dublin apartment market requires an appreciation of the role played by tax breaks for owner-occupiers and investors in urban renewal locations. The results show that different submarkets responded differently. The central city apartment market [urban renewal locations] saw a short-term stabilization of prices in the months following the fiscal changes, with price increases accelerating again shortly afterwards.

A Numerical Model of Crossed Andreev Reflection and Charge Imbalance

We present a numerical model of local and nonlocal transport properties in a lateral spin valve structure consisting of two magnetic electrodes in contact with a third perpendicular superconducting electrode. By considering the transport paths for a single electron incident at the local F/S interface - in terms of probabilities of crossed or local Andreev reflection, elastic cotunneling or quasiparticle transport - we show that this leads to nonlocal charge imbalance. We compare this model with experimental data from an aluminum-permalloy (Al/Py) lateral spin valve geometry device and demonstrate the effectiveness of this simple approach in replicating experimental behavior.Comment: 9 pages, 14 figure