Future Seismic Hazards in Southern California - Phase I: Implications of the 1992 Landers Earthquake Sequence

Southern California and its seismologists received a wake-up call on June 28, 1992. The largest earthquake to strike southern California in 40 years occurred near the town of Landers, located 30 km north of the San Andreas fault. It had a magnitude of 7.5 (M7.5). Three and one-half hours later, a M6.5 aftershock struck the Big Bear area 40 km (kilometers) to the west of Landers. An ad hoc working group was rapidly convened in July, 1992, to evaluate how the Landers-Big Bear earthquake sequence might affect future large earthquakes along major faults in southern California. In particular, what are the chances of large earthquakes in the next few years and how do they compare to previous estimates (such as those of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities -- WGCEP, 1988)? Such an evaluation was made for central California after the Lorna Prieta earthquake of 1989 (WGCEP, 1990). The charge to the Landers ad hoc working group included analyzing the seismicity for the last several years in southern California and the new paleoseismic, geologic, and geodetic data recently available for southern California. To inform the public about the potential hazard of plausible earthquakes, the working group was also asked to map the predicted severity of ground shaking for such earthquakes compared to that from the Landers earthquake

Outcomes of Patients Lost to Follow-up in African Antiretroviral Therapy Programs: Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Low retention on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has emerged as a threat to the Joint United Nations Programme on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets. We examined outcomes of patients who started cART but were subsequently lost to follow-up (LTFU) in African treatment programs. METHODS: This was a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of studies that traced patients who were LTFU. Outcomes were analyzed using cumulative incidence functions and proportional hazards models for the competing risks of (i) death, (ii) alive but stopped cART, (iii) silent transfer to other clinics, and (iv) retention on cART. RESULTS: Nine studies contributed data on 7377 patients who started cART and were subsequently LTFU in sub-Saharan Africa. The median CD4 count at the start of cART was 129 cells/μL. At 4 years after the last clinic visit, 21.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.8%-22.7%) were known to have died, 22.6% (95% CI, 21.6%-23.6%) were alive but had stopped cART, 14.8% (95% CI, 14.0%-15.6%) had transferred to another clinic, 9.2% (95% CI, 8.5%-9.8%) were retained on cART, and 31.6% (95% CI, 30.6%-32.7%) could not been found. Mortality was associated with male sex, more advanced disease, and shorter cART duration; stopping cART with less advanced disease andlonger cART duration; and silent transfer with female sex and less advanced disease. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in patients LTFU must be considered for unbiased assessments of program outcomes and UNAIDS targets in sub-Saharan Africa. Immediate start of cART and early tracing of patients LTFU should be priorities

Dynamical response of a Bose-Einstein condensate to a discontinuous change in internal state

A two-photon transition is used to convert an arbitrary fraction of the 87Rb atoms in a |F=1,m_f=-1> condensate to the |F=2,m_f=1> state. Transferring the entire population imposes a discontinuous change on the condensate's mean-field repulsion, which leaves a residual ringing in the condensate width. A calculation based on Gross-Pitaevskii theory agrees well with the observed behavior, and from the comparison we obtain the ratio of the intraspecies scattering lengths for the two states, a_|1,-1> / a_|2,1> = 1.062(12).Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Managing maize under pest species competition: is Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) maize the solution?

Transgenic crops that contain Cry genes from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) have been adopted by farmers over the last 17 years. Unlike traditional broad spectrum chemical insecticides, Bt's toxicity spectrum is relatively narrow and selective, which may indirectly benefit secondary insects that may become important pests. The economic damage caused by the rise of secondary pests could offset some or all of the benefits associated with the use of Bt varieties. We develop a bioeconomic model to analyze the interactions between primary and secondary insect populations and the impact of different management options on insecticide use and economic impact over time. Results indicate that some of the benefits associated with the adoption of genetically engineered insect resistant crops may be eroded when taking into account ecological dynamics. It is suggested that secondary pests could easily become key insect pests requiring additional measures - such as insecticide applications or stacked traits – to keep their populations under the economic threshold

"Give me some space" : exploring youth to parent aggression and violence

A small scale qualitative project, undertaken by an interdisciplinary domestic violence research group involving academic researchers and research assistants, with colleagues from Independent Domestic Abuse Services (IDAS), investigated youth aggression and violence against parents. Following the literature review, data was generated through several research conversations with young people (n = 2), through semi-structured interviews with mothers (n = 3) and practitioners (n = 5), and through a practitioner focus group (n = 8). Thematic analysis and triangulation of the data from parents, practitioners and young people, elicited interconnected and complex overarching themes. Young people could be both victim and perpetrator. The witnessing or experiencing of domestic aggression and violence raised the concept of ‘bystander children’. The impact of young people experiencing familial violence was underestimated by parents. For practitioners, the effects of working with domestic violence was shown to be significant - both positively and negatively

Consensus Statement on the Pathology of IgG4-Related Disease

IgG4-related disease is a newly recognized fibro-inflammatory condition characterized by several features: a tendency to form tumefactive lesions in multiple sites; a characteristic histopathological appearance; and—often but not always—elevated serum IgG4 concentrations. An international symposium on IgG4-related disease was held in Boston, MA, on 4–7 October 2011. The organizing committee comprising 35 IgG4-related disease experts from Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Holland, Canada, and the United States, including the clinicians, pathologists, radiologists, and basic scientists. This group represents broad subspecialty expertise in pathology, rheumatology, gastroenterology, allergy, immunology, nephrology, pulmonary medicine, oncology, ophthalmology, and surgery. The histopathology of IgG4-related disease was a specific focus of the international symposium. The primary purpose of this statement is to provide practicing pathologists with a set of guidelines for the diagnosis of IgG4-related disease. The diagnosis of IgG4-related disease rests on the combined presence of the characteristic histopathological appearance and increased numbers of IgG4+ plasma cells. The critical histopathological features are a dense lymphoplasmacytic infiltrate, a storiform pattern of fibrosis, and obliterative phlebitis. We propose a terminology scheme for the diagnosis of IgG4-related disease that is based primarily on the morphological appearance on biopsy. Tissue IgG4 counts and IgG4:IgG ratios are secondary in importance. The guidelines proposed in this statement do not supplant careful clinicopathological correlation and sound clinical judgment. As the spectrum of this disease continues to expand, we advocate the use of strict criteria for accepting newly proposed entities or sites as components of the IgG4-related disease spectrum

A Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain

Recently much attention has been given to developing national-scale micro-simulation models for livestock diseases that can be used to predict spread and assess the impact of control measures. The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock.We developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed.The model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. Moreover, the model provides a tool with which to examine scenarios for the spread and control of BTV in Great Britain

Predicting Novel Binding Modes of Agonists to β Adrenergic Receptors Using All-Atom Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Understanding the binding mode of agonists to adrenergic receptors is crucial to enabling improved rational design of new therapeutic agents. However, so far the high conformational flexibility of G protein-coupled receptors has been an obstacle to obtaining structural information on agonist binding at atomic resolution. In this study, we report microsecond classical molecular dynamics simulations of β1 and β2 adrenergic receptors bound to the full agonist isoprenaline and in their unliganded form. These simulations show a novel agonist binding mode that differs from the one found for antagonists in the crystal structures and from the docking poses reported by in silico docking studies performed on rigid receptors. Internal water molecules contribute to the stabilization of novel interactions between ligand and receptor, both at the interface of helices V and VI with the catechol group of isoprenaline as well as at the interface of helices III and VII with the ethanolamine moiety of the ligand. Despite the fact that the characteristic N-C-C-OH motif is identical in the co-crystallized ligands and in the full agonist isoprenaline, the interaction network between this group and the anchor site formed by Asp(3.32) and Asn(7.39) is substantially different between agonists and inverse agonists/antagonists due to two water molecules that enter the cavity and contribute to the stabilization of a novel network of interactions. These new binding poses, together with observed conformational changes in the extracellular loops, suggest possible determinants of receptor specificity