Reliability and performance evaluation of systems containing embedded rule-based expert systems

A method for evaluating the reliability of real-time systems containing embedded rule-based expert systems is proposed and investigated. It is a three stage technique that addresses the impact of knowledge-base uncertainties on the performance of expert systems. In the first stage, a Markov reliability model of the system is developed which identifies the key performance parameters of the expert system. In the second stage, the evaluation method is used to determine the values of the expert system's key performance parameters. The performance parameters can be evaluated directly by using a probabilistic model of uncertainties in the knowledge-base or by using sensitivity analyses. In the third and final state, the performance parameters of the expert system are combined with performance parameters for other system components and subsystems to evaluate the reliability and performance of the complete system. The evaluation method is demonstrated in the context of a simple expert system used to supervise the performances of an FDI algorithm associated with an aircraft longitudinal flight-control system

Gastrointestinal flora and gastrointestinal status in children with autism – comparisons to typical children and correlation with autism severity

Abstract Background Children with autism have often been reported to have gastrointestinal problems that are more frequent and more severe than in children from the general population. Methods Gastrointestinal flora and gastrointestinal status were assessed from stool samples of 58 children with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) and 39 healthy typical children of similar ages. Stool testing included bacterial and yeast culture tests, lysozyme, lactoferrin, secretory IgA, elastase, digestion markers, short chain fatty acids (SCFA's), pH, and blood presence. Gastrointestinal symptoms were assessed with a modified six-item GI Severity Index (6-GSI) questionnaire, and autistic symptoms were assessed with the Autism Treatment Evaluation Checklist (ATEC). Results Gastrointestinal symptoms (assessed by the 6-GSI) were strongly correlated with the severity of autism (assessed by the ATEC), (r = 0.59, p Children with autism had much lower levels of total short chain fatty acids (-27%, p = 0.00002), including lower levels of acetate, proprionate, and valerate; this difference was greater in the children with autism taking probiotics, but also significant in those not taking probiotics. Children with autism had lower levels of species of Bifidobacter (-43%, p = 0.002) and higher levels of species of Lactobacillus (+100%, p = 0.00002), but similar levels of other bacteria and yeast using standard culture growth-based techniques. Lysozyme was somewhat lower in children with autism (-27%, p = 0.04), possibly associated with probiotic usage. Other markers of digestive function were similar in both groups. Conclusions The strong correlation of gastrointestinal symptoms with autism severity indicates that children with more severe autism are likely to have more severe gastrointestinal symptoms and vice versa. It is possible that autism symptoms are exacerbated or even partially due to the underlying gastrointestinal problems. The low level of SCFA's was partly associated with increased probiotic use, and probably partly due to either lower production (less sacchrolytic fermentation by beneficial bacteria and/or lower intake of soluble fiber) and/or greater absorption into the body (due to longer transit time and/or increased gut permeability).</p

Highly multiplexed and quantitative cell-surface protein profiling using genetically barcoded antibodies.

Human cells express thousands of different surface proteins that can be used for cell classification, or to distinguish healthy and disease conditions. A method capable of profiling a substantial fraction of the surface proteome simultaneously and inexpensively would enable more accurate and complete classification of cell states. We present a highly multiplexed and quantitative surface proteomic method using genetically barcoded antibodies called phage-antibody next-generation sequencing (PhaNGS). Using 144 preselected antibodies displayed on filamentous phage (Fab-phage) against 44 receptor targets, we assess changes in B cell surface proteins after the development of drug resistance in a patient with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and in adaptation to oncogene expression in a Myc-inducible Burkitt lymphoma model. We further show PhaNGS can be applied at the single-cell level. Our results reveal that a common set of proteins including FLT3, NCR3LG1, and ROR1 dominate the response to similar oncogenic perturbations in B cells. Linking high-affinity, selective, genetically encoded binders to NGS enables direct and highly multiplexed protein detection, comparable to RNA-sequencing for mRNA. PhaNGS has the potential to profile a substantial fraction of the surface proteome simultaneously and inexpensively to enable more accurate and complete classification of cell states

Toward a descriptive model of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere

Researchers review the elements that enter into phenomenological models of the composition, energy spectra, and the spatial and temporal variations of galactic cosmic rays, including the so-called anomalous cosmic ray component. Starting from an existing model, designed to describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the near-Earth environment, researchers suggest possible updates and improvements to this model, and then propose a quantitative approach for extending such a model into other regions of the heliosphere

Come to Daddy? Claiming Chris Cunningham for British Art Cinema

Twenty years after he came to prominence via a series of provocative, ground-breaking music videos, Chris Cunningham remains a troubling, elusive figure within British visual culture. His output – which includes short films, advertisements, art gallery commissions, installations, music production and a touring multi-screen live performance – is relatively slim, and his seemingly slow work rate (and tendency to leave projects uncompleted or unreleased) has been a frustration for fans and commentators, particularly those who hoped he would channel his interests and talents into a full-length ‘feature’ film project. There has been a diverse critical response to his musical sensitivity, his associations with UK electronica culture – and the Warp label in particular – his working relationship with Aphex Twin, his importance within the history of the pop video and his deployment of transgressive, suggestive imagery involving mutated, traumatised or robotic bodies. However, this article makes a claim for placing Cunningham within discourses of British art cinema. It proposes that the many contradictions that define and animate Cunningham's work – narrative versus abstraction, political engagement versus surrealism, sincerity versus provocation, commerce versus experimentation, art versus craft, a ‘British’ sensibility versus a transnational one – are also those that typify a particular terrain of British film culture that falls awkwardly between populism and experimentalism

Effect of Natriuretic Peptide-Guided Therapy on Hospitalization or Cardiovascular Mortality in High-Risk Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The natriuretic peptides are biochemical markers of heart failure (HF) severity and predictors of adverse outcomes. Smaller studies have evaluated adjusting HF therapy based on natriuretic peptide levels ( guided therapy ) with inconsistent results. Objective: To determine whether an amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)-guided treatment strategy improves clinical outcomes vs usual care in high-risk patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Design, Settings, and Participants: The Guiding Evidence Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment in Heart Failure (GUIDE-IT) study was a randomized multicenter clinical trial conducted between January 16, 2013, and September 20, 2016, at 45 clinical sites in the United States and Canada. This study planned to randomize 1100 patients with HFrEF (ejection fraction ≤40%), elevated natriuretic peptide levels within the prior 30 days, and a history of a prior HF event (HF hospitalization or equivalent) to either an NT-proBNP-guided strategy or usual care. Interventions: Patients were randomized to either an NT-proBNP-guided strategy or usual care. Patients randomized to the guided strategy (n = 446) had HF therapy titrated with the goal of achieving a target NT-proBNP of less than 1000 pg/mL. Patients randomized to usual care (n = 448) had HF care in accordance with published guidelines, with emphasis on titration of proven neurohormonal therapies for HF. Serial measurement of NT-proBNP testing was discouraged in the usual care group. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was the composite of time-to-first HF hospitalization or cardiovascular mortality. Prespecified secondary end points included all-cause mortality, total hospitalizations for HF, days alive and not hospitalized for cardiovascular reasons, the individual components on the primary end point, and adverse events. Results: The data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping the study for futility when 894 (median age, 63 years; 286 [32%] women) of the planned 1100 patients had been enrolled with follow-up for a median of 15 months. The primary end point occurred in 164 patients (37%) in the biomarker-guided group and 164 patients (37%) in the usual care group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.98; 95% CI, 0.79-1.22; P = .88). Cardiovascular mortality was 12% (n = 53) in the biomarker-guided group and 13% (n = 57) in the usual care group (HR, 0.94; 95% CI; 0.65-1.37; P = .75). None of the secondary end points nor the decreases in the NT-proBNP levels achieved differed significantly between groups. Conclusions and Relevance: In high-risk patients with HFrEF, a strategy of NT-proBNP-guided therapy was not more effective than a usual care strategy in improving outcomes. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01685840