The Least Dangerous Branch Revisited: New Evidence on Supreme Court Responsiveness to Public Preferences

With competing assumptions and alternative empirical models, scholars have come to rather different conclusions about the impact of public preferences on the decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court. Some have found the justices to be attentive to mass opinion, while others have judged it to be irrelevant. Across this divide, however, one assumption is widely shared; that is, political scientists generally agree upon how best to measure the Court's outputs. In this analysis, we employ an alternative estimate of the justices’ liberalism, one which we think better reflects the underlying ideological tenor of their policies. With data from 1953 to 1996, we compare time-series models using different indicators of the Supreme Court's aggregate liberalism. Our results suggest that, in addition to being motivated by their own preferences, the justices are highly responsive to public mood, as well

Gender Difference or Parallel Publics? The Dynamics of Defense Spending Opinions in the United States, 1965-2007

Gender is now recognized as an important dividing line in American political life, and scholars have accumulated evidence that national security issues are an important reason for gender differences in policy preferences. We therefore expect that the dynamics of support for defense spending among men and women will differ. In contrast, several scholars have shown that population subgroups exhibit a ‘‘parallel’’ dynamic in which the evolution of their preferences over time is very similar, despite differences in the average level of support. Unfortunately, there is little time series evidence on gendered reactions to policy, including defense spending, that would allow one to arbitrate between these competing perspectives. In this research note, we assemble a time series of support for defense spending among men and women and model the determinants of that support for the period 1967–2007. We find that women are on average less supportive of defense spending than are men. However, we also find that the over time variation of support for defense spending among men and women is very similar—each is conditioned principally by the past year’s change in defense spending and occasionally by war casualties and a trade-off between defense and civilian spending

Comparing Competing Theories on the Causes of Mandate Perceptions

The discussion of presidential mandates is as certain as a presidential election itself. Journalists inevitably discuss whether the president-elect has a popular mandate. Because they see elections as too complex to allow the public to send a unitary signal, political scientists are more skeptical of mandates. Mandates, however, have received new attention by scholars asking whether perceptions of mandate arise and lead representatives to act as if voters sent a policy directive. Two explanations have emerged to account for why elected officials might react to such perceptions. One focuses on the President’s strategic decision to declare a mandate, the second on how members of Congress read signals of changing preferences in the electorate from their own election results. We test these competing views to see which more accurately explains how members of Congress act in support of a perceived mandate. The results indicate that members respond more to messages about changing preferences than to the president’s mandate declaration

The burden and dynamics of hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 in England

Hospital-based transmission had a dominant role in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemics1,2, but large-scale studies of its role in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are lacking. Such transmission risks spreading the virus to the most vulnerable individuals and can have wider-scale impacts through hospital-community interactions. Using data from acute hospitals in England, we quantify within-hospital transmission, evaluate likely pathways of spread and factors associated with heightened transmission risk, and explore the wider dynamical consequences. We estimate that between June 2020 and March 2021 between 95,000 and 167,000 inpatients acquired SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals (1% to 2% of all hospital admissions in this period). Analysis of time series data provided evidence that patients who themselves acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospital were the main sources of transmission to other patients. Increased transmission to inpatients was associated with hospitals having fewer single rooms and lower heated volume per bed. Moreover, we show that reducing hospital transmission could substantially enhance the efficiency of punctuated lockdown measures in suppressing community transmission. These findings reveal the previously unrecognized scale of hospital transmission, have direct implications for targeting of hospital control measures and highlight the need to design hospitals better equipped to limit the transmission of future high-consequence pathogens

Association of Cortisol and the Metabolic Syndrome in Korean Men and Women

Obesity and the metabolic syndrome are closely related and have become increasingly prevalent in Korea. The cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors comprising the metabolic syndrome have previously been associated with increased hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPAA) activity, but the associations have not been extensively examined in non-Caucasian populations. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationships between cortisol, adiposity and the metabolic syndrome in a Korean population. A total of 1,881 adults participated in the study between January 2001 and February 2008. Sociodemographic data were assessed by questionnaires. Body composition, clinic blood pressures as well as metabolic variables including glucose, insulin, and lipid profile were assessed and analyzed in relation to cortisol levels. Mean age of the participants was 58.7 ± 10.8 yr. Higher levels of cortisol was associated with elevated blood pressure, fasting glucose and total cholesterol in men, and between cortisol and systolic blood pressure, fasting glucose and total cholesterol in women. There was an increased risk for the metabolic syndrome associated with higher cortisol levels in both men (P < 0.001) and women (P = 0.040) adjusting for age and body mass index. Higher cortisol levels are associated with several CVD risk factors and the metabolic syndrome, independent of overall of adiposity level, in Korean men and women

Contrasting Patterns of Coral Bleaching Susceptibility in 2010 Suggest an Adaptive Response to Thermal Stress

Background: \ud Coral bleaching events vary in severity, however, to date, the hierarchy of susceptibility to bleaching among coral taxa has been consistent over a broad geographic range and among bleaching episodes. Here we examine the extent of spatial and temporal variation in thermal tolerance among scleractinian coral taxa and between locations during the 2010 thermally induced, large-scale bleaching event in South East Asia.\ud \ud Methodology/Principal Findings: \ud Surveys to estimate the bleaching and mortality indices of coral genera were carried out at three locations with contrasting thermal and bleaching histories. Despite the magnitude of thermal stress being similar among locations in 2010, there was a remarkable contrast in the patterns of bleaching susceptibility. Comparisons of bleaching susceptibility within coral taxa and among locations revealed no significant differences between locations with similar thermal histories, but significant differences between locations with contrasting thermal histories (Friedman = 34.97; p,0.001). Bleaching was much less severe at locations that bleached during 1998, that had greater historical temperature variability and lower rates of warming. Remarkably, Acropora and Pocillopora, taxa that are typically highly susceptible, although among the most susceptible in Pulau Weh (Sumatra, Indonesia) where respectively, 94% and 87% of colonies died, were among the least susceptible in Singapore, where only 5% and 12% of colonies died.\ud \ud Conclusions/Significance: \ud The pattern of susceptibility among coral genera documented here is unprecedented. A parsimonious explanation for these results is that coral populations that bleached during the last major warming event in 1998 have adapted and/or acclimatised to thermal stress. These data also lend support to the hypothesis that corals in regions subject to more variable temperature regimes are more resistant to thermal stress than those in less variable environments

Dynamic Responsiveness in the U.S. Senate

I develop a theory of dynamic responsiveness that suggests that parties that win elections choose candidates who are more extreme and parties that lose elections choose candidates who are more moderate. Moreover, the size of past victories matters. Close elections yield little change, but landslides yield larger changes in the candidates offered by both parties. I test this theory by analyzing the relationship between Republican vote share in U.S. Senate elections and the ideology of candidates offered in the subsequent election. The results show that Republican (Democratic) victories in past elections yield candidates who are more (less) conservative in subsequent elections, and the effect is proportional to the margin of victory. This suggests that parties or candidates pay attention to past election returns. One major implication is that parties may remain polarized in spite of their responsiveness to the median voter

Systematic review and cumulative analysis of perioperative outcomes and complications after robot-assisted radical cystectomy

CONTEXT: Although open radical cystectomy (ORC) is still the standard approach, laparoscopic radical cystectomy (LRC) and robot-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC) have gained popularity. OBJECTIVE: To report a systematic literature review and cumulative analysis of perioperative outcomes and complications of RARC in comparison with ORC and LRC. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched using a free-text protocol including the terms robot-assisted radical cystectomy or da Vinci radical cystectomy or robot* radical cystectomy. RARC case series and studies comparing RARC with either ORC or LRC were collected. Cumulative analysis was conducted. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: The searches retrieved 105 papers. According to the different diversion type, overall mean operative time ranged from 360 to 420 min. Similarly, mean blood loss ranged from 260 to 480 ml. Mean in-hospital stay was about 9 d for all diversion types, with consistently high readmission rates. In series reporting on RARC with either extracorporeal or intracorporeal conduit diversion, overall 90-d complication rates were 59% (high-grade complication: 15%). In series reporting RARC with intracorporeal continent diversion, the overall 30-d complication rate was 45.7% (high-grade complication: 28%). Reported mortality rates were ≤3% for all diversion types. Comparing RARC and ORC, cumulative analyses demonstrated shorter operative time for ORC, whereas blood loss and in-hospital stay were better with RARC (all p values <0.003). Moreover, 90-d complication rates of any-grade and 90-d grade 3 complication rates were lower for RARC (all p values <0.04), whereas high-grade complication and mortality rates were similar. CONCLUSIONS: RARC can be performed safely with acceptable perioperative outcome, although complications are common. Cumulative analyses demonstrated that operative time was shorter with ORC, whereas RARC may provide some advantages in terms of blood loss and transfusion rates and, more limitedly, for postoperative complication rates over ORC and LRC. PATIENT SUMMARY: Although open radical cystectomy (RC) is still regarded as a standard treatment for muscle-invasive bladder cancer, laparoscopic and robot-assisted RC are becoming more popular. Robotic RC can be safely performed with acceptably low risk of blood loss, transfusion, and intraoperative complications; however, as for open RC, the risk of postoperative complications is high, including a substantial risk of major complication and reoperation