Forward Exchange Market Unbiasedness: The Case of the Australian Dollar Since 1984

This paper implements a new statistical approach to robust regression with nonstationary time series. The methods are presently under theoretical development in other work, and are briefly exposited here. They allow us to perform regressions in levels with nonstationary time series data, they accommodate data distributions with heavy tails and they permit serial dependence and temporal heterogeneity of unknown form in the equation errors. With these features the methods are well suited to applications with frequently sampled exchange rate data, which generally display all of these empirical characteristics. Our application is to daily data on spot and forward exchange rates between the Australian and US dollars over the period 1984-1991 following the deregulation of the Australian foreign exchange market. We find big differences between the robust and the non-robust regression outcomes and in the associated statistical tests of the hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate. The robust regression tests reject the unbiasedness hypothesis but still give the forward rate an important role as a predictor of the future spot rate.

Comparison of Compression Schemes for CLARA

CLARA (Compact Linear Advanced Research Accelerator)at Daresbury Laboratory is proposed to be the UK's national FEL test facility. The accelerator will be a ~250 MeV electron linac capable of producing short, high brightness electron bunches. The machine comprises a 2.5cell RF photocathode gun, one 2 m and three 5 m normal conducting S-band (2998MHz) accelerating structures and a variable magnetic compression chicane. CLARA will be used as a test bed for novel FEL configurations. We present a comparison of acceleration and compression schemes for the candidate machine layout.Comment: 3 pages, 5 figures, IPAC 201

Providing Public Transport for Tourists in Rural Areas

Travel, both to the destination area and within the area, accounts for a high proportion of tourism’s emissions. Yet, relatively little attention has been directed at reducing emissions through encouraging visitors to use public rather private transport. This paper reports the findings of surveys of bus passengers within British rural tourist areas and demonstrates how they bring extra visitors and spending to attractions, while reducing car use. It discusses the potential of using public transport to enhance the tourism offer and the problems, and some solutions, of funding such services. Recent developments are introduced

Short-Run Economic Impacts of Hurricane Katrina (and Rita)

Sturm; Erdölförderung; Offshore-Industrie; Makroökonomischer Einfluss; USA

Estudo dos líquenes dos Açores. Parte 2 - Líquenes das encostas de altitude da montanha do Pico. Comparação entre as floras de líquenes de altitude das ilhas dos Açores, Madeira e Canárias

Descreve-se a flora de líquenes das encostas alas do Pico, a maior montanha dos Açores, entre 1200-2300 m de altitude. Reconhecem-se duas zonas florísticas distintas: uma elevada, 1500-2300 m, acima da camada de inversão, pobre em espécies, e uma zona baixa, entre 1200-1500 m com maior diversidade específica, dependente da persistência da faixa de nuvens. Registaram-se 49 espécies de líquenes, 14 das quais são novas ocorrências para os Açores, incluindo duas que se descrevem de novo: Ochrolechia azorica e Stereocaulon macaronesicum. Compara-se a comunidade de líquenes acima de faixa de nuvens do Pico, dominada principalmente por Stereocaulon e Placopsis gelida, com as floras documentadas de altitude de outras ilhas da Macaronésia. Considera-se que a escassez de espécies de líquenes nas encostas de altitude do Pico é, em primeiro lugar, o resultado do isolamento recente dos Açores, mas também da natureza recente do substracto e das severas condições climatéricas.ABSTRACT: The lichen flora of the upper slopes of Pico, the major mountain in the Azores, is described between altitudes 1200-2300 m. Two distinct floristic zones are recognised: an upper, species poor, zone from 1500-2300 m above the inversion layer and a lower, more species diverse, zone from 1200-1500 m dependent on the persistence of the cloud layer, 49 species are reported, 14 of which are new records for the Azores, including two which are newly described: Ochrolechia azorica and Stereocaulon macaronesicum. The lichen communities above the cloud layer, dominated principally by species of Stereocaulon and Placopsis gelida are compared with those of other documented floras of Macaronesian islands al high elevations. The paucity of species on the upper slopes of Pico is considered to be primarily the result of the isolation of the Azores, the recent nature of the substrate and severity of the climatic conditions