Very Large System Dynamics Models - Lessons Learned

This paper provides lessons learned from developing several large system dynamics (SD) models. System dynamics modeling practice emphasize the need to keep models small so that they are manageable and understandable. This practice is generally reasonable and prudent; however, there are times that large SD models are necessary. This paper outlines two large SD projects that were done at two Department of Energy National Laboratories, the Idaho National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories. This paper summarizes the models and then discusses some of the valuable lessons learned during these two modeling efforts

Modeling for Insights

System Dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, System Dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The real power of System Dynamic modeling is gaining insights into total system behavior as time, and system parameters are adjusted and the effects are visualized in real time. System Dynamic models allow decision makers and stakeholders to explore long-term behavior and performance of complex systems, especially in the context of dynamic processes and changing scenarios without having to wait decades to obtain field data or risk failure if a poor management or design approach is used. The Idaho National Laboratory recently has been developing a System Dynamic model of the US Nuclear Fuel Cycle. The model is intended to be used to identify and understand interactions throughout the entire nuclear fuel cycle and suggest sustainable development strategies. This paper describes the basic framework of the current model and presents examples of useful insights gained from the model thus far with respect to sustainable development of nuclear power

A multi-objective, hub-and-spoke model to design and manage biofuel supply chains

In this paper we propose a multi-objective, mixed integer linear programming model to design and manage the supply chain for biofuels. This model captures the trade-offs that exist between costs, environmental and social impacts of delivering biofuels. The in-bound supply chain for biofuel plants relies on a hub-and-spoke structure which optimizes transportation costs of biomass. The model proposed optimizes the CO2 style= position: relative; tabindex= 0 id= MathJax-Element-1-Frame \u3eCO2 emissions due to transportation-related activities in the supply chain. The model also optimizes the social impact of biofuels. The social impacts are evaluated by the number of jobs created. The multi-objective optimization model is solved using an augmented ϵ style= position: relative; tabindex= 0 id= MathJax-Element-2-Frame \u3eϵ-constraint method. The method provides a set of Pareto optimal solutions. We develop a case study using data from the Midwest region of the USA. The numerical analyses estimates the quantity and cost of cellulosic ethanol delivered under different scenarios generated. The insights we provide will help policy makers design policies which encourage and support renewable energy production

Single ion heat engine with maximum efficiency at maximum power

We propose an experimental scheme to realize a nano heat engine with a single ion. An Otto cycle may be implemented by confining the ion in a linear Paul trap with tapered geometry and coupling it to engineered laser reservoirs. The quantum efficiency at maximum power is analytically determined in various regimes. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations of the engine are performed that demonstrate its feasibility and its ability to operate at maximum efficiency of 30% under realistic conditions.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Export efficiency of black carbon aerosol in continental outflow: Global implications

We use aircraft observations of Asian outflow from the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission over the NW Pacific in March–April 2001 to estimate the export efficiency of black carbon (BC) aerosol during lifting to the free troposphere, as limited by scavenging from the wet processes (warm conveyor belts and convection) associated with this lifting. Our estimate is based on the enhancement ratio of BC relative to CO in Asian outflow observed at different altitudes and is normalized to the enhancement ratio observed in boundary layer outflow (0–1 km). We similarly estimate export efficiencies of sulfur oxides (SO x = SO2(g) + fine SO4 2−) and total inorganic nitrate (HNO3 T = HNO3(g) + fine NO3 −) for comparison to BC. Normalized export efficiencies for BC are 0.63–0.74 at 2–4 km altitude and 0.27–0.38 at 4–6 km. Values at 2–4 km altitude are higher than for SO x (0.48–0.66) and HNO3 T (0.29–0.62), implying that BC is scavenged in wet updrafts but not as efficiently as sulfate or nitrate. Simulation of the TRACE-P period with a global three-dimensional model (GEOS-CHEM) indicates that a model timescale of 1 ± 1 days for conversion of fresh hydrophobic to hydrophilic BC provides a successful fit to the export efficiencies observed in TRACE-P. The resulting mean atmospheric lifetime of BC is 5.8 ± 1.8 days, the global burden is 0.11 ± 0.03 Tg C, and the decrease in Arctic snow albedo due to BC deposition is 3.1 ± 2.5%.Earth and Planetary Science

What can Recycling in Thermal Reactors Accomplish?

Thermal recycle provides several potential benefits when used as stop-gap, mixed, or backup recycling to recycling in fast reactors. These three roles involve a mixture of thermal and fast recycling; fast reactors are required to some degree at some time. Stop-gap uses thermal reactors only until fast reactors are adequately deployed and until any thermal-recycle-only facilities have met their economic lifetime. Mixed uses thermal and fast reactors symbiotically for an extended period of time. Backup uses thermal reactors only if problems later develop in the fast reactor portion of a recycling system. Thermal recycle can also provide benefits when used as pure thermal recycling, with no intention to use fast reactors. However, long term, the pure thermal recycling approach is inadequate to meet several objectives

A VISION of Advanced Nuclear System Cost Uncertainty

VISION (VerifIable fuel cycle SImulatiON) is the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative’s and Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Program’s nuclear fuel cycle systems code designed to simulate the US commercial reactor fleet. The code is a dynamic stock and flow model that tracks the mass of materials at the isotopic level through the entire nuclear fuel cycle. As VISION is run, it calculates the decay of 70 isotopes including uranium, plutonium, minor actinides, and fission products. VISION.ECON is a sub-model of VISION that was developed to estimate fuel cycle and reactor costs. The sub-model uses the mass flows generated by VISION for each of the fuel cycle functions (referred to as modules) and calculates the annual cost based on cost distributions provided by the Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report1. Costs are aggregated for each fuel cycle module, and the modules are aggregated into front end, back end, recycling, reactor, and total fuel cycle costs. The software also has the capability to perform system sensitivity analysis. This capability may be used to analyze the impacts on costs due to system uncertainty effects. This paper will provide a preliminary evaluation of the cost uncertainty affects attributable to 1) key reactor and fuel cycle system parameters and 2) scheduling variations. The evaluation will focus on the uncertainty on the total cost of electricity and fuel cycle costs. First, a single light water reactor (LWR) using mixed oxide fuel is examined to ascertain the effects of simple parameter changes. Three system parameters; burnup, capacity factor and reactor power are varied from nominal cost values and the affect on the total cost of electricity is measured. These simple parameter changes are measured in more complex scenarios 2-tier systems including LWRs with mixed fuel and fast recycling reactors using transuranic fuel. Other system parameters are evaluated and results will be presented in the paper. Secondly, the uncertainty due to variation in scheduling effects is evaluated. For example, economic impacts due to increased nuclear energy growth rates and speed-ups in deployment of fuel cycle facilities and fast reactors. Preliminary results show that significant variations in the costs of the scenarios can result from variations in burnup, capacity factor and reactor power. The paper will include new results from analysis of additional system variables and due to scheduling dynamics. Reference 1. Shropshire, D.E. et al, 2007, Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis, INL/EXT-07-12107, April 2007

International Energy Agency (IEA) Task 40 ? Sustainable International Energy Trade: Securing Supply and Demand -- Country Report 2010 for the United States

This report updates the status of U.S. biomass resources currently and future potentials for domestic and export markets of residues, energy crops, and woody resources. Includes energy and fuel production and consumption statistics, driving policies, targets, and government investment in bioenergy industry development

GRBs Neutrinos as a Tool to Explore Quantum Gravity induced Lorentz Violation

Lorentz Invariance Violation (LIV) arises in various quantum-gravity theories. As the typical energy for quantum gravity is the Planck mass, $M_{pl}$, LIV will, most likely, be manifested at very high energies that are not accessible on Earth in the foreseeable future. One has to turn to astronomical observations. Time of flight measurement from different astronomical sources set current limits on the energy scale of possible LIV to $> 0.01 M_{pl}$ (for n=1 models) and $> 10^{-9} M_{pl}$ (for n=2). According to current models Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) are accompanied by bursts of high energy (\gsim 100TeV) neutrinos. At this energy range the background level of currently constructed neutrino detectors is so low that a detection of a single neutrino from the direction of a GRB months or even years after the burst would imply an association of the neutrino with the burst and will establish a measurement of a time of flight delay. Such time of flight measurements provide the best way to observe (or set limits) on LIV. Detection of a single GRB neutrino would open a new window on LIV and would improve current limits by many orders of magnitude

Lorentz Symmetry breaking studies with photons from astrophysical observations

Lorentz Invariance Violation (LIV) may be a good observational window on Quantum Gravity physics. Within last few years, all major Gamma-ray experiments have published results from the search for LIV with variable astrophysical sources: gamma-ray bursts with detectors on-board satellites and Active Galactic Nuclei with ground-based experiments. In this paper, the recent time-of-flight studies with unpolarized photons published from the space and ground based observations are reviewed. Various methods used in the time delay searches are described, and their performance discussed. Since no significant time-lag value was found within experimental precision of the measurements, the present results consist of 95% confidence cevel limits on the Quantum Gravity scale on the linear and quadratic terms in the standard photon dispersion relations.Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures. V2 match the published version. Invited review talk to the 2nd International Colloquium "Scientific and Fundamental Aspects of the Galileo Programme", 14-16 october 2009, Padua, Ital