Non-random correlation of species dynamics in tropical tree communities

International audienceThe importance of environmental stochasticity for tropical tree dynamics has been recently stressed by several studies. This has spurred the development of a 'time-averaged neutral model' of community dynamics by Kalyuzhny and colleagues that extends the neutral model by incorporating environmental stochasticity. We here show that this framework can be used to assess the presence of non-random correlations between species dynamics. Indeed, the time-averaged neutral model makes the simplifying assumption that species responses to environmental variation are uncorrelated. We therefore propose to use this model as a null hypothesis against which observed community dynamics can be compared. This study makes five contributions. First, we describe a novel time-averaged neutral model of community dynamics that is close to, but more flexible than the one previously proposed by Kalyuzhny and colleagues. Second, we develop an inference method based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and demonstrate the identifiability of the model parameters from community time series data. Third, we develop a test of the significance of environmental stochasticity, and a method to quantify its contribution to population variance. Fourth, we develop a test of non-random correlation between species dynamics. Fifth, we apply these developments to three datasets of tropical tree dynamics. We evidence both a strong contribution of environmental stochasticity to population variance in the three datasets, and a non-random correlation of species dynamics in one of them. We finally discuss the implications of these results for the modelling of tropical tree community dynamics

Predicting stochastic community dynamics in grasslands under the assumption of competitive symmetry

International audienceCommunity dynamics is influenced by multiple ecological processes such as environmental spatiotemporal variation, competition between individuals and demographic stochasticity. Quantifying the respective influence of these various processes and making predictions on community dynamics require the use of a dynamical framework encompassing these various components. We here demonstrate how to adapt the framework of stochastic community dynamics to the peculiarities of herbaceous communities, by using a short temporal resolution adapted to the time scale of competition between herbaceous plants, and by taking into account the seasonal drops in plant aerial biomass following winter, harvesting or consumption by herbivores. We develop a hybrid inference method for this novel modelling framework that both uses numerical simulations and likelihood computations. Applying this methodology to empirical data from the Jena biodiversity experiment, we find that environmental stochasticity has a larger effect on community dynamics than demographic stochasticity, and that both effects are generally smaller than observation errors at the plot scale. We further evidence that plant intrinsic growth rates and carrying capacities are moderately predictable from plant vegetative height, specific leaf area and leaf dry matter content. We do not find any trade-off between demographical components, since species with larger intrinsic growth rates tend to also have lower demographic and environmental variances. Finally, we find that our model is able to make relatively good predictions of multi-specific community dynamics based on the assumption of competitive symmetr

Adaptive approximate Bayesian computation for complex models

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a family of computational techniques in Bayesian statistics. These techniques allow to fi t a model to data without relying on the computation of the model likelihood. They instead require to simulate a large number of times the model to be fi tted. A number of re finements to the original rejection-based ABC scheme have been proposed, including the sequential improvement of posterior distributions. This technique allows to de- crease the number of model simulations required, but it still presents several shortcomings which are particu- larly problematic for costly to simulate complex models. We here provide a new algorithm to perform adaptive approximate Bayesian computation, which is shown to perform better on both a toy example and a complex social model.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Int J Environ Res Public Health

Many countries have introduced health impact assessment (HIA) at the national, regional, or local levels. In France and in Québec, there is increasing interest in using HIA to inform decision-makers and influence policies, programs, and projects. This paper aims to compare HIA implementation models in two regions: Nouvelle-Aquitaine (France) and Montérégie (Québec, Canada) using a case study methodology. The objective is to gain a better understanding of the similarities and differences in the approaches used to achieve the operationalization of HIA. The methodological approach involves four steps: (1) design of an analytical framework based on the literature; (2) exchanges within the research team and review of documents concerning the two implementation strategies under study; (3) development of the case studies based on the proposed framework; and (4) cross-comparison analysis of the case studies. The findings show that the two regions share certain similarities, including the strong commitment and political will of the public health organizations involved and a well-established culture of engaging in intersectoral action with municipal partners. Differences mainly concern their different approaches to implementing HIAs in accordance with the regional policies and the organizational and administrative contexts in place. This study identifies potential avenues for supporting the practice of HIA at the municipal level

History of medico-sanitary expertise in Ukraine and Poltava region

Проаналізовані історичні етапи становлення медико-соціальної експертизи від часів князя Володимира до наших днів. Визначені перші нормативні акти, яким керувалися при утриманні інвалідів. Детально показаний активний розвиток медико-соціальної експертизи двадцятого сторіччя; Analyzed historical stages of the medical and social expertise of the time of St. Vladimir to the present day. Defined first regulations that guided while keeping disabled. Details shown active development of medical and social examination of the twentieth century

Habitat quality, configuration and context effects on roe deer fecundity across a forested landscape mosaic

Effective landscape-scale management of source-sink deer populations will be strengthened by understanding whether local variation in habitat quality drives heterogeneity in productivity. We related female roe deer Capreolus capreolus fecundity and body mass to habitat composition and landscape context, separately for adults and yearlings, using multi-model inference (MMI) applied to a large sample of individuals (yearlings: fecundity=202, body mass=395; adults: fecundity=908, body mass=1669) culled during 2002-2015 from an extensive (195 km2) heterogeneous forest landscape. Adults were heavier (inter-quartile, IQ, effect size=+0.5kg) when culled in buffers comprising more arable lands while contrary to our prediction no effects on body mass of grassland, young forest or access to vegetation on calcareous soil were found. Heavier adults were more fertile (IQ effect size, +12% probability of having two embryos instead of one or zero). Counter-intuitively, adults with greater access to arable lands were less fecund (IQ effect of arable: -7% probability of having two embryos, instead of one or zero), and even accounting for greater body mass of adults with access to arable, their modelled fecundity was similar to or lower than that of adults in the forest interior. In contrast, effects of grassland, young forest and calcareous soil did not receive support. Yearling body mass had an effect on fecundity twice that found in adults (+23% probability of having one additional embryo), but yearling body mass and fecundity were not affected by any candidate habitat or landscape variables. Effect of arable lands on body mass and fecundity were small, with little variance explained (Coefficient of Variation of predicted fecundity across forest sub-regions=0.03 for adults). More variance in fecundity was attributed to other differences between forest management sub-regions (modelled as random effects), suggesting other factors might be important. When analysing source-sink population dynamics to support management, an average value of fecundity can be appropriate across a heterogeneous forest landscape

A niche remedy for the dynamical problems of neutral theory

We demonstrate how niche theory and Hubbell's original formulation of neutral theory can be blended together into a general framework modeling the combined effects of selection, drift, speciation, and dispersal on community dynamics. This framework connects many seemingly unrelated ecological population models, and allows for quantitative predictions to be made about the impact of niche stabilizing and destabilizing forces on population extinction times and abundance distributions. In particular, the existence of niche stabilizing forces in our blended framework can simultaneously resolve two major problems with the dynamics of neutral theory, namely predictions of species lifetimes that are too short and species ages that are too long.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figures, Accepted to Theoretical Ecolog

Factors influencing the higher incidence of tuberculosis among migrants and ethnic minorities in the UK.

Migrants and ethnic minorities in the UK have higher rates of tuberculosis (TB) compared with the general population. Historically, much of the disparity in incidence between UK-born and migrant populations has been attributed to differential pathogen exposure, due to migration from high-incidence regions and the transnational connections maintained with TB endemic countries of birth or ethnic origin. However, focusing solely on exposure fails to address the relatively high rates of progression to active disease observed in some populations of latently infected individuals. A range of factors that disproportionately affect migrants and ethnic minorities, including genetic susceptibility, vitamin D deficiency and co-morbidities such as diabetes mellitus and HIV, also increase vulnerability to infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) or reactivation of latent infection. Furthermore, ethnic socio-economic disparities and the experience of migration itself may contribute to differences in TB incidence, as well as cultural and structural barriers to accessing healthcare. In this review, we discuss both biological and anthropological influences relating to risk of pathogen exposure, vulnerability to infection or development of active disease, and access to treatment for migrant and ethnic minorities in the UK

Human IFN-γ immunity to mycobacteria is governed by both IL-12 and IL-23

Hundreds of patients with autosomal recessive, complete IL-12p40 or IL-12Rß1 deficiency have been diagnosed over the last 20 years. They typically suffer from invasive mycobacteriosis and, occasionally, from mucocutaneous candidiasis. Susceptibility to these infections is thought to be due to impairments of IL- 12–dependent IFN-? immunity and IL-23–dependent IL-17A/IL-17F immunity, respectively. We report here patients with autosomal recessive, complete IL- 12Rß2 or IL-23R deficiency, lacking responses to IL-12 or IL- 23 only, all of whom, unexpectedly, display mycobacteriosis without candidiasis. We show that aß T, ?d T, B, NK, ILC1, and ILC2 cells from healthy donors preferentially produce IFN-? in response to IL-12, whereas NKT cells and MAIT cells preferentially produce IFN-? in response to IL-23. We also show that the development of IFN-?–producing CD4+ T cells, including, in particular, mycobacterium-specific TH1* cells (CD45RA-CCR6+), is dependent on both IL-12 and IL-23. Last, we show that IL12RB1, IL12RB2, and IL23R have similar frequencies of deleterious variants in the general population. The comparative rarity of symptomatic patients with IL-12Rß2 or IL-23R deficiency, relative to IL-12Rß1 deficiency, is, therefore, due to lower clinical penetrance. There are fewer symptomatic IL-23R– and IL-12Rß2–deficient than IL-12Rß1–deficient patients, not because these genetic disorders are rarer, but because the isolated absence of IL-12 or IL-23 is, in part, compensated by the other cytokine for the production of IFN-?, thereby providing some protection against mycobacteria. These experiments of nature show that human IL-12 and IL-23 are both required for optimal IFN-?–dependent immunity to mycobacteria, both individually and much more so cooperatively