Child mortality in Bangladesh - why, when, where and how?:A national survey-based analysis

BACKGROUND: Updated information on the cause of childhood mortality is essential for developing policies and designing programmes targeting the major burden of disease. There is a paucity of evidence regarding the current estimates of the cause of death in Bangladesh, which is essential for reinvigorating the current policies and reshaping existing strategies to avert preventable deaths. This paper aims to address this critical evidence gap and report the cause, timing and place of death among children under-five years of age using a nationally representative sample. METHODS: The present study was undertaken to provide updated estimates of causes of death among children under-five years of age using data from the 2017-18 round of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS). The verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaire of the 2017-18 BDHS was adapted from the standardised WHO 2016 instruments. Specially trained physicians reviewed the responses of the VA questionnaire and assigned the cause of death based on the online-2016-version of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). We included 456 deaths among children under-five years of age in our analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to present the causes, timing and places of death with uncertainty ranges (UR). RESULTS: Pneumonia is the major killer (19%), accounting for approximately 24 268 (UR = 21 626-26 695) under-five deaths per-year. It is followed by birth asphyxia (16%), prematurity and low-birth-weight (11%), serious infections including sepsis (8%) causing 20 882 (UR = 18 608-22 970), 14 956 (UR = 13 327-16,452), and 10 723 (UR = 9555-11,795) deaths per-year, respectively. Drowning (8%) caused 10 441 (UR = 9304-11 485) deaths and congenital anomaly (7%) resulted in d 8748 (UR = 7795-9623) deaths per-year. Around 29% of all deaths occurred on the first day, 52% within the first week, and 66% within the first month of life. Around 70% of birth asphyxia, prematurity, and low birth weight-related deaths happen on the day of birth. Approximately 43% of pneumonia-related deaths occur in age 1-11 months, and around 51% of drowning-related deaths happen in age 12-23 months. CONCLUSIONS: Pneumonia with other serious infections, birth asphyxia, prematurity and low-birth-weight are responsible for more than half of all deaths among children under-five years of age. Strengthening the existing maternal, neonatal and child health programmes may be helpful in averting the majority of these preventable deaths. A multisectoral approach is required for the prevention of childhood deaths, especially drowning-related fatalities. Special measures need to be taken to prevent and control emerging public health challenges like birth defects and congenital anomalies

Perception and experiences of adolescent mothers and communities in caring for their preterm babies: findings from an in-depth study in rural Bangladesh.

BackgroundA significant concern for Bangladesh is the high prevalence of adolescent pregnancy and the associated negative consequences for mother and baby, including a teen-related increased risk of preterm birth (PTB). Bangladesh also has one of the highest incidences of PTB (19%). Despite these high numbers of adolescent pregnancies and PTB, little is reported about the experiences of adolescent mothers in caring for their preterm babies, and the interventions needed to support them. The aim of this study was to explore gaps and opportunities for improved care for preterm babies among adolescent mothers and communities in rural Bangladesh.MethodsWe conducted a qualitative study in rural villages of Baliakandi sub-district of Bangladesh. Data collection involved in-depth interviews with adolescent mothers of premature and term babies, adult mothers with premature babies, and family members (n = 36); focus groups with community members (n = 5); and key informant interviews with healthcare providers (n = 13). Adolescent mothers with term and adult mothers with PTBs were included to elicit similarities and differences in understanding and care practices of PTB. A thematic approach was used for data analysis.ResultsWe explored two major themes- perceptions and understanding of PTB; care practices and care-seeking for illnesses. We observed gaps and variations in understanding of preterm birth (length of gestation, appearance, causes, problems faced) and care practices (thermal management, feeding, weight monitoring) among all, but particularly among adolescents. Immediate natal and marital-kins were prominent in the narratives of adolescents as sources of informational and instrumental support. The use of multiple providers and delays in care-seeking from trained providers for sick preterm babies was noted, often modulated by the perception of severity of illness, cost, convenience, and quality of services. Health systems challenges included lack of equipment and trained staff in facilities to provide special care to preterm babies.ConclusionA combination of factors including local knowledge, socio-cultural practices and health systems challenges influenced knowledge of, and care for, preterm babies among adolescent and adult mothers. Strategies to improve birth outcomes will require increased awareness among adolescents, women, and families about PTB and improvement in quality of PTB services at health facilities

Research prioritisation on prevention and management of preterm birth in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) with a special focus on Bangladesh using the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method

Background Fifteen million babies are born preterm globally each year, with 81% occurring in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Preterm birth complications are the leading cause of newborn deaths and significantly impact health, quality of life, and costs of health services. Improving outcomes for newborns and their families requires prioritising research for developing practical, scalable solutions, especially in low-resource settings such as Bangladesh. We aimed to identify research priorities related to preventing and managing preterm birth in LMICs for 2021-2030, with a special focus on Bangladesh. Methods We adopted the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method to set research priorities for preventing and managing preterm birth. Seventy-six experts submitted 490 research questions online, which we collated into 95 unique questions and sent for scoring to all experts. A hundred and nine experts scored the questions using five pre-selected criteria: answerability, effectiveness, deliverability, maximum potential for burden reduction, and effect on equity. We calculated weighted and unweighted research priority scores and average expert agreement to generate a list of top-ranked research questions for LMICs and Bangladesh. Results Health systems and policy research dominated the top 20 identified priorities for LMICs, such as understanding and improving uptake of the facility and community-based Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC), promoting breastfeeding, improving referral and transport networks, evaluating the impact of the use of skilled attendants, quality improvement activities, and exploring barriers to antenatal steroid use. Several of the top 20 questions also focused on screening high-risk women or the general population of women, understanding the causes of preterm birth, or managing preterm babies with illnesses (jaundice, sepsis and retinopathy of prematurity). There was a high overlap between research priorities in LMICs and Bangladesh. Conclusions This exercise, aimed at identifying priorities for preterm birth prevention and management research in LMICs, especially in Bangladesh, found research on improving the care of preterm babies to be more important in reducing the burden of preterm birth and accelerating the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 3 target of newborn deaths, by 2030

Introducing pulse oximetry for outpatient management of childhood pneumonia::An implementation research adopting a district implementation model in selected rural facilities in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND: Pulse oximetry has potential for identifying hypoxaemic pneumonia and substantially reducing under-five deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) setting. However, there are few examples of introducing pulse oximetry in resource-constrained paediatric outpatient settings, such as Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) services. METHODS: The National IMCI-programme of Bangladesh designed and developed a district implementation model for introducing pulse oximetry in routine IMCI services through stakeholder engagement and demonstrated the model in Kushtia district adopting a health system strengthening approach. Between December 2020 and June 2021, two rounds of assessment were conducted based on WHO's implementation research framework and outcome variables, involving 22 IMCI service-providers and 1680 children presenting with cough/difficulty-in-breathing in 12 health facilities. The data collection procedures included structured-observations, re-assessments, interviews, and data-extraction by trained study personnel. FINDINGS: We observed that IMCI service-providers conducted pulse oximetry assessments on all eligible children in routine outpatient settings, of which 99% of assessments were successful; 85% (95% CI 83,87) in one attempt, and 69% (95% CI 67,71) within one minute. The adherence to standard operating procedure related to pulse oximetry was 92% (95% CI 91,93), and agreement regarding identifying hypoxaemia was 97% (95% CI 96,98). The median performance-time was 36 seconds (IQR 20,75), which was longer among younger children (2-11 months: 44s, IQR 22,78; 12-59 months: 30s, IQR 18,53, p < 0.01) and among those classified as pneumonia/severe-pneumonia than as no-pneumonia (41s, IQR 22,70; 32s, IQR 20,62, p < 0.01). We observed improvements in almost all indicators in round-2. IMCI service-providers and caregivers showed positive attitudes towards using this novel technology for assessing their children. INTERPRETATION: This implementation research study suggested the adoption, feasibility, fidelity, appropriateness, acceptability, and sustainability of pulse oximetry introduction in routine IMCI services in resource-poor settings. The learning may inform the evidence-based scale-up of pulse oximetry linked with an oxygen delivery system in Bangladesh and other LMICs. FUNDING: This research was funded by the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (Global Health Research Unit on Respiratory Health (RESPIRE); 16/136/109) using UK aid from the UK Government to support global health research

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Evaluating the impact of e-registration and mHealth on institutional delivery in hazard-prone areas of Bangladesh: A protocol for a non-randomized controlled cluster trial.

Despite substantial progress, Bangladesh still has a high rate of maternal deaths owing to difficulties during pregnancy, delivery, and the postpartum period. Increasing facility delivery is mandatory to reach the goal of bringing down the MMR to <70 deaths/100,000 live births by 2030. In the era of digitalization, the introduction of e-registration and mHealth may aid the government in reaching this target. The southern part of Bangladesh is a hazard-prone area, where service uptake from institutions is low. This study aims to determine the effect of an e-registration tracking system and mHealth counseling on institutional deliveries to pregnant mothers in hazard-prone areas of southern Bangladesh. We will conduct an open-label, two-arm, non-randomized controlled cluster trial for six months and use three hazard-prone areas for intervention and another three hazard-prone areas for control. We will collect data at baseline and end-line of the study period using a structured questionnaire. We will enroll at least 268 pregnant mothers from the intervention and 268 pregnant mothers from the control areas after screening based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Pregnancy information will be obtained from the Family Welfare Assistant register. The respondents of the intervention arm will be registered in the e-Registration system, and receive voice call and text messages from the midwives to have their deliveries done in healthcare facilities. We will follow the participants until their delivery and exclude those respondents from the study who will have post-dated delivery, migrate out, lost to follow-up, or die during the study period. Random-intercept mixed-effect logistic regression will be performed to explain the relationship of e-registration and mHealth package with institutional delivery. Institutional delivery is still uncommon in Southern Bangladesh despite several interventions. Innovative approaches like e-registration and mHealth counseling may be helpful to bring women to health facilities. The findings from the study might enable the policy makers of Bangladesh to integrate the intervention package into the existing healthcare system. This experiment is registered in the open science framework. Clinical trial registration: Registration number: DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/YZE5C) and https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ (registration number: NCT05398978

‘I Ain’t Like You’ A Complex Network Model of Digital Narcissism

Social media like Twitter or Instagram play a role of fertile ground for self-exhibition, which is used by various narcissists to share their frequent updates reflecting their narcissism. Their belief of saving and assisting others, make them vulnerable to the feedback of others, so their rage is as dangerous as their messiah complex. In this paper, we aim to analyse the behaviour of a narcissist when he is admired or receives negative critics. We designed a complex adaptive mental network model of the process of narcissism based on the theories of neuroscience and psychology including a Hebbian learning principal. The model was validated by analyzing Instagram data