Jay Forrester

Jay Wright Forrester was an American engineer and management thinker. He founded System Dynamics, an approach based on computer modelling which arguably has done more than any other method to provide a practical and realistic analysis of change processes in systems. System Dynamics (SD) has been taken up across the world, initially by Forrester’s students and colleagues, but increasingly by a much wider community. It has had profound and influential applications in a range of fields, most prominently organisational management, urban planning and environmental policy. Forrester summed up his concerns and his understanding of SD in an ‘elevator pitch’ (a statement short enough to be spoken in an elevator ride) on an email list: System dynamics deals with how things change through time, which includes most of what most people find important. It uses computer simulation to take the knowledge we already have about details in the world around us and to show why our social and physical systems behave the way they do. System dynamics demonstrates how most of our own decision-making policies are the cause of the problems that we usually blame on others, and how to identify policies we can follow to improve our situation. (Forrester JW. System dynamics in the elevator. System-dynamics email list. https://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1787#p1964. Accessed 25 Sept 2019, 1997

Calibration with confidence:A principled method for panel assessment

Frequently, a set of objects has to be evaluated by a panel of assessors, but not every object is assessed by every assessor. A problem facing such panels is how to take into account different standards amongst panel members and varying levels of confidence in their scores. Here, a mathematically-based algorithm is developed to calibrate the scores of such assessors, addressing both of these issues. The algorithm is based on the connectivity of the graph of assessors and objects evaluated, incorporating declared confidences as weights on its edges. If the graph is sufficiently well connected, relative standards can be inferred by comparing how assessors rate objects they assess in common, weighted by the levels of confidence of each assessment. By removing these biases, "true" values are inferred for all the objects. Reliability estimates for the resulting values are obtained. The algorithm is tested in two case studies, one by computer simulation and another based on realistic evaluation data. The process is compared to the simple averaging procedure in widespread use, and to Fisher's additive incomplete block analysis. It is anticipated that the algorithm will prove useful in a wide variety of situations such as evaluation of the quality of research submitted to national assessment exercises; appraisal of grant proposals submitted to funding panels; ranking of job applicants; and judgement of performances on degree courses wherein candidates can choose from lists of options.Comment: 32 pages including supplementary information; 5 figure

On the Dynamics of the Deployment of Renewable Energy Production Capacities

This chapter falls within the context of modeling the deployment of renewable en-ergy production capacities in the scope of the energy transition. This problem is addressed from an energy point of view, i.e. the deployment of technologies is seen as an energy investment under the constraint that an initial budget of non-renewable energy is provided. Using the Energy Return on Energy Investment (ERoEI) characteristics of technologies, we propose MODERN, a discrete-time formalization of the deployment of renewable energy production capacities. Be-sides showing the influence of the ERoEI parameter, the model also underlines the potential benefits of designing control strategies for optimizing the deployment of production capacities, and the necessity to increase energy efficiency.Peer reviewe

No straight lines – young women’s perceptions of their mental health and wellbeing during and after pregnancy: a systematic review and meta-ethnography

Background: Young mothers face mental health challenges during and after pregnancy including increased rates of depression compared to older mothers. While the prevention of teenage pregnancy in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom has been a focus for policy and research in recent decades, the need to understand young women’s own experiences has been highlighted. The aim of this meta-ethnography was to examine young women’s perceptions of their mental health and wellbeing during and after pregnancy to provide new understandings of those experiences. Methods: A systematic review and meta-ethnographic synthesis of qualitative research was conducted. Seven databases were systematically searched and forward and backward searching conducted. Papers were included if they were from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and explored mental health and wellbeing experiences of young mothers (age under 20 in pregnancy; under 25 at time of research) as a primary research question – or where evidence about mental health and wellbeing from participants was foregrounded. Nineteen papers were identified and the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist for qualitative research used to appraise the evidence. Following the seven-step process of meta-ethnography, key constructs were examined within each study and then translated into one another. Results: Seven translated themes were identified forming a new line of argument wherein mental health and wellbeing was analysed as relating to individual bodily experiences; tied into past and present relationships; underpinned by economic insecurity and entangled with feelings of societal surveillance. There were ‘no straight lines’ in young women’s experiences, which were more complex than dominant narratives around overcoming adversity suggest. Conclusions: The synthesis concludes that health and social care professionals need to reflect on the operation of power and stigma in young women’s lives and its impact on wellbeing. It adds to understanding of young women’s mental health and wellbeing during and after pregnancy as located in physical and structural factors rather than individual capacities alone

Seasonal and spatial variations of saltmarsh benthic foraminiferal communities from North Norfolk, England

Time series foraminiferal data were obtained from samples collected from three sites at Brancaster Overy Staithe, Burnham Overy Staithe and Thornham on the North Norfolk coast over a 1-year period. At each collection point, six environmental variables—temperature, chlorophyll, sand, mud, pH and salinity—were also measured. The principle aim of this study was to examine the benthic foraminiferal fauna in regard to the temporal variability of foraminiferal abundance, seasonal trend, dominant species, species diversity and the impact of environmental variables on the foraminiferal communities in the top 1 cm of sediment over a 1-year time series. The foraminiferal assemblages at the three sites were dominated by three species: Haynesina germanica, Ammonia sp. and Elphidium williamsoni. Foraminiferal species showed considerable seasonal and temporal fluctuation throughout the year at the three investigated sites. The foraminiferal assemblage at the three low marsh zones showed a maximum abundance in autumn between September and November and a minimum abundance observed between July and August. There were two separate peaks in the abundance of Ammonia sp. and E. williamsoni, one in spring and another in autumn. In contrast, H. germanica showed a single peak in its abundance in autumn. A generalized additive modelling approach was used to explain the variation in the observed foraminiferal abundance and to estimate the significant impact of each of the environmental variables on living foraminiferal assemblages, with taxa abundance as the dependent variable. When included in the model as predictors, most of the environmental variables contributed little in explaining the observed variation in foraminiferal species abundance. However, the hypotheses for differences amongst sites, salinity and pH were significant and explained most of the variability in species relative abundance

Introducing systems approaches

Systems Approaches to Managing Change brings together five systems approaches to managing complex issues, each having a proven track record of over 25 years. The five approaches are: System Dynamics (SD) developed originally in the late 1950s by Jay Forrester Viable Systems Model (VSM) developed originally in the late 1960s by Stafford Beer Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA: with cognitive mapping) developed originally in the 1970s by Colin Eden Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) developed originally in the 1970s by Peter Checkland Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) developed originally in the late 1970s by Werner Ulrich

Chapter 1: Introducing systems approaches

The five approaches covered in Systems Approaches to Making Change – System Dynamics (SD) Viable Systems Model (VSM), Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA: with cognitive mapping), Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), and Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) – are introduced. The rationale for their inclusion is described based on their (i) common historic emergence in dealing with complex situations of change and uncertainty, (ii) shared potential and actual constructivist use of the systems idea, and (iii) pedigree of adaptability and versatility of tools in working with other approaches to making change

Myogenin Regulates Exercise Capacity but Is Dispensable for Skeletal Muscle Regeneration in Adult mdx Mice

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is the most prevalent inherited childhood muscle disorder in humans. mdx mice exhibit a similar pathophysiology to the human disorder allowing for an in-depth investigation of DMD. Myogenin, a myogenic regulatory factor, is best known for its role in embryonic myogenesis, but its role in adult muscle maintenance and regeneration is still poorly understood. Here, we generated an mdx:Myogflox/flox mouse harboring a tamoxifen-inducible Cre recombinase transgene, which was used to conditionally delete Myog during adult life. After tamoxifen treatment, three groups of mice were created to study the effects of Myog deletion: mdx:Myogflox/flox mice (mdx), Myogflox/flox mice (wild-type), and mdx:MyogfloxΔ/floxΔ:Cre-ER mice (mdx:Myog-deleted). mdx:Myog-deleted mice exhibited no adverse phenotype and behaved normally. When run to exhaustion, mdx:Myog-deleted mice demonstrated an enhanced capacity for exercise compared to mdx mice, running nearly as far as wild-type mice. Moreover, these mice showed the same signature characteristics of muscle regeneration as mdx mice. Unexpectedly, we found that myogenin was dispensable for muscle regeneration. Factors associated with muscle fatigue, metabolism, and proteolysis were significantly altered in mdx:Myog-deleted mice, and this might contribute to their increased exercise capacity. Our results reveal novel functions for myogenin in adult muscle and suggest that reducing Myog expression in other muscle disease models may partially restore muscle function