Gaussian-process-based demand forecasting for predictive control of drinking water networks

Trabajo presentado a la 9th International Conference on Critical Information Infrastructures Security, celebrada en Limassol (Chipre) del 13 al 15 de octubre de 2014.This paper focuses on short-term water demand forecasting for predictive control of DrinkingWater Networks (DWN) by using Gaussian Process (GP). For the predictive control strategy, system state prediction in a nite horizon are generated by a DWN model and demands are regarded as system disturbances. The goal is to provide a demand estimation within a given condence interval. For the sake of obtaining a desired forecasting performance, the forecasting process is carried out in two parts: the expected part is forecasted by Double-Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW) method and the stochastic part is forecasted by GP method. The mean value of water demand is rstly estimated by DSHW while GP provides estimations within a condence interval. GP is applied with random inputs to propagate uncertainty at each step. Results of the application of the proposed approach to a real case study based on the Barcelona DWN have shown that the general goal has been successfully reached.This work is partially supported by the research projects SHERECS DPI-2011-26243 and ECOCIS DPI-2013-48243-C2-1-R, both of the Spanish Ministry of Education, by EFFINET grant FP7-ICT-2012-318556 of the European Commission and by AGAUR Doctorat Industrial 2013-DI-041. Ye Wang also thanks China Scholarship Council for providing postgraduate scholarship.Peer Reviewe

Treatment of developmental dyslexia: A review

Remarkably few research articles on the treatment of developmental dyslexia were published during the last 25 years. Some treatment research arose from the temporal processing theory, some from the phonological deficit hypothesis and some more from the balance model of learning to read and dyslexia. Within the framework of that model, this article reviews the aetiology of dyslexia sub-types, the neuropsychological rationale for treatment, the treatment techniques and the outcomes of treatment research. The possible mechanisms underlying the effects of treatment are discussed. © 2005 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved

Work-related psychological health among clergywomen in Australia

Drawing on the classic model of balanced affect, the Francis Burnout Inventory conceptualises good work-related psychological health among clergy in terms of negative affect being balanced by positive affect. This paper sets out to explore the relationship between work-related psychological health and psychological type (as assessed by the Francis Psychological-Type Scales) among a sample of 212 Australian clergywomen who completed the National Church Life Survey Form L in 2006. The data supported the internal consistency reliability of the Francis Burnout Inventory and Francis Psychological-Type Scales and found that work-related psychological health was positively related to extraversion and sensing

Dissolution dominating calcification process in polar pteropods close to the point of aragonite undersaturation

Thecosome pteropods are abundant upper-ocean zooplankton that build aragonite shells. Ocean acidification results in the lowering of aragonite saturation levels in the surface layers, and several incubation studies have shown that rates of calcification in these organisms decrease as a result. This study provides a weight-specific net calcification rate function for thecosome pteropods that includes both rates of dissolution and calcification over a range of plausible future aragonite saturation states (Omega_Ar). We measured gross dissolution in the pteropod Limacina helicina antarctica in the Scotia Sea (Southern Ocean) by incubating living specimens across a range of aragonite saturation states for a maximum of 14 days. Specimens started dissolving almost immediately upon exposure to undersaturated conditions (Omega_Ar,0.8), losing 1.4% of shell mass per day. The observed rate of gross dissolution was different from that predicted by rate law kinetics of aragonite dissolution, in being higher at Var levels slightly above 1 and lower at Omega_Ar levels of between 1 and 0.8. This indicates that shell mass is affected by even transitional levels of saturation, but there is, nevertheless, some partial means of protection for shells when in undersaturated conditions. A function for gross dissolution against Var derived from the present observations was compared to a function for gross calcification derived by a different study, and showed that dissolution became the dominating process even at Omega_Ar levels close to 1, with net shell growth ceasing at an Omega_Ar of 1.03. Gross dissolution increasingly dominated net change in shell mass as saturation levels decreased below 1. As well as influencing their viability, such dissolution of pteropod shells in the surface layers will result in slower sinking velocities and decreased carbon and carbonate fluxes to the deep ocean

Chance of aneurysm in patients suspected of SAH who have a ‘negative’ CT scan but a ‘positive’ lumbar puncture

In patients with sudden severe headache and a negative computed tomography (CT) scan, a lumbar puncture (LP) is performed to rule in or out a subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), but this procedure is under debate. In a hospital-based series of 30 patients with sudden headache, a negative CT scan but a positive LP (defined as detection of bilirubin >0.05 at wavelength 458 nm), we studied the chance of harbouring an aneurysm and the clinical outcome. Aneurysms were found in none of both patients who presented within 3 days, in 8 of the 18 (44%) who presented within 4–7 days and in 5 of the 10 (50%) who presented within 8–14 days. Of the 13 patients with an aneurysm, 3 (23%) had poor outcome. In patients who present late after sudden headache, the yield in terms of aneurysms is high in those who have a positive lumbar puncture. In patients with an aneurysm as cause of the positive lumbar puncture, outcome is in the same range as in SAH patients admitted in good clinical condition

Lorentzian and Euclidean Quantum Gravity - Analytical and Numerical Results

We review some recent attempts to extract information about the nature of quantum gravity, with and without matter, by quantum field theoretical methods. More specifically, we work within a covariant lattice approach where the individual space-time geometries are constructed from fundamental simplicial building blocks, and the path integral over geometries is approximated by summing over a class of piece-wise linear geometries. This method of ``dynamical triangulations'' is very powerful in 2d, where the regularized theory can be solved explicitly, and gives us more insights into the quantum nature of 2d space-time than continuum methods are presently able to provide. It also allows us to establish an explicit relation between the Lorentzian- and Euclidean-signature quantum theories. Analogous regularized gravitational models can be set up in higher dimensions. Some analytic tools exist to study their state sums, but, unlike in 2d, no complete analytic solutions have yet been constructed. However, a great advantage of our approach is the fact that it is well-suited for numerical simulations. In the second part of this review we describe the relevant Monte Carlo techniques, as well as some of the physical results that have been obtained from the simulations of Euclidean gravity. We also explain why the Lorentzian version of dynamical triangulations is a promising candidate for a non-perturbative theory of quantum gravity.Comment: 69 pages, 16 figures, references adde

Neural models that convince: Model hierarchies and other strategies to bridge the gap between behavior and the brain.

Computational modeling of the brain holds great promise as a bridge from brain to behavior. To fulfill this promise, however, it is not enough for models to be 'biologically plausible': models must be structurally accurate. Here, we analyze what this entails for so-called psychobiological models, models that address behavior as well as brain function in some detail. Structural accuracy may be supported by (1) a model's a priori plausibility, which comes from a reliance on evidence-based assumptions, (2) fitting existing data, and (3) the derivation of new predictions. All three sources of support require modelers to be explicit about the ontology of the model, and require the existence of data constraining the modeling. For situations in which such data are only sparsely available, we suggest a new approach. If several models are constructed that together form a hierarchy of models, higher-level models can be constrained by lower-level models, and low-level models can be constrained by behavioral features of the higher-level models. Modeling the same substrate at different levels of representation, as proposed here, thus has benefits that exceed the merits of each model in the hierarchy on its own

New ophthalmosaurid ichthyosaurs from the European lower cretaceous demonstrate extensive ichthyosaur survival across the Jurassic–Cretaceous boundary

Background Ichthyosauria is a diverse clade of marine amniotes that spanned most of the Mesozoic. Until recently, most authors interpreted the fossil record as showing that three major extinction events affected this group during its history: one during the latest Triassic, one at the Jurassic–Cretaceous boundary (JCB), and one (resulting in total extinction) at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary. The JCB was believed to eradicate most of the peculiar morphotypes found in the Late Jurassic, in favor of apparently less specialized forms in the Cretaceous. However, the record of ichthyosaurs from the Berriasian–Barremian interval is extremely limited, and the effects of the end-Jurassic extinction event on ichthyosaurs remains poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on new material from the Hauterivian of England and Germany and on abundant material from the Cambridge Greensand Formation, we name a new ophthalmosaurid, Acamptonectes densus gen. et sp. nov. This taxon shares numerous features with Ophthalmosaurus, a genus now restricted to the Callovian–Berriasian interval. Our phylogenetic analysis indicates that Ophthalmosauridae diverged early in its history into two markedly distinct clades, Ophthalmosaurinae and Platypterygiinae, both of which cross the JCB and persist to the late Albian at least. To evaluate the effect of the JCB extinction event on ichthyosaurs, we calculated cladogenesis, extinction, and survival rates for each stage of the Oxfordian–Barremian interval, under different scenarios. The extinction rate during the JCB never surpasses the background extinction rate for the Oxfordian–Barremian interval and the JCB records one of the highest survival rates of the interval. Conclusions/Significance There is currently no evidence that ichthyosaurs were affected by the JCB extinction event, in contrast to many other marine groups. Ophthalmosaurid ichthyosaurs remained diverse from their rapid radiation in the Middle Jurassic to their total extinction at the beginning of the Late Cretaceous