Using equity premium survey data to estimate future wealth

We present the first systematic methods for combining different experts' responses to equity premium surveys. These techniques are based on the observation that the survey data are approximately gamma distributed. This distribution has convenient analytical properties that enable us to address three important problems that investment managers must face. First, we construct probability density functions for the future values of equity index tracker funds. Second, we calculate unbiased and minimum least square error estimators of the future value of these funds. Third, we derive optimal asset allocation weights between equities and the risk-free asset for risk-averse investors. Our analysis allows for both herding and biasedness in expert responses. We show that, unless investors are highly uncertain about expert biases or forecasts are very highly correlated, many investment decisions can be based solely on the mean of the survey data minus any expected bias. We also make recommendations for the design of future equity premium surveys

The Human Polyoma JC Virus Agnoprotein Acts as a Viroporin

Virus infections can result in a range of cellular injuries and commonly this involves both the plasma and intracellular membranes, resulting in enhanced permeability. Viroporins are a group of proteins that interact with plasma membranes modifying permeability and can promote the release of viral particles. While these proteins are not essential for virus replication, their activity certainly promotes virus growth. Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) is a fatal demyelinating disease resulting from lytic infection of oligodendrocytes by the polyomavirus JC virus (JCV). The genome of JCV encodes six major proteins including a small auxiliary protein known as agnoprotein. Studies on other polyomavirus agnoproteins have suggested that the protein may contribute to viral propagation at various stages in the replication cycle, including transcription, translation, processing of late viral proteins, assembly of virions, and viral propagation. Previous studies from our and other laboratories have indicated that JCV agnoprotein plays an important, although as yet incompletely understood role in the propagation of JCV. Here, we demonstrate that agnoprotein possesses properties commonly associated with viroporins. Our findings demonstrate that: (i) A deletion mutant of agnoprotein is defective in virion release and viral propagation; (ii) Agnoprotein localizes to the ER early in infection, but is also found at the plasma membrane late in infection; (iii) Agnoprotein is an integral membrane protein and forms homo-oligomers; (iv) Agnoprotein enhances permeability of cells to the translation inhibitor hygromycin B; (v) Agnoprotein induces the influx of extracellular Ca2+; (vi) The basic residues at amino acid positions 8 and 9 of agnoprotein key are determinants of the viroporin activity. The viroporin-like properties of agnoprotein result in increased membrane permeability and alterations in intracellular Ca2+ homeostasis leading to membrane dysfunction and enhancement of virus release

Multidimensional Signals and Analytic Flexibility: Estimating Degrees of Freedom in Human-Speech Analyses

Recent empirical studies have highlighted the large degree of analytic flexibility in data analysis that can lead to substantially different conclusions based on the same data set. Thus, researchers have expressed their concerns that these researcher degrees of freedom might facilitate bias and can lead to claims that do not stand the test of time. Even greater flexibility is to be expected in fields in which the primary data lend themselves to a variety of possible operationalizations. The multidimensional, temporally extended nature of speech constitutes an ideal testing ground for assessing the variability in analytic approaches, which derives not only from aspects of statistical modeling but also from decisions regarding the quantification of the measured behavior. In this study, we gave the same speech-production data set to 46 teams of researchers and asked them to answer the same research question, resulting in substantial variability in reported effect sizes and their interpretation. Using Bayesian meta-analytic tools, we further found little to no evidence that the observed variability can be explained by analysts’ prior beliefs, expertise, or the perceived quality of their analyses. In light of this idiosyncratic variability, we recommend that researchers more transparently share details of their analysis, strengthen the link between theoretical construct and quantitative system, and calibrate their (un)certainty in their conclusions

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency–Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research

Organic matter from the Chicxulub crater exacerbated the K-Pg impact winter.

An asteroid impact in the Yucatán Peninsula set off a sequence of events that led to the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction of 76% species, including the nonavian dinosaurs. The impact hit a carbonate platform and released sulfate aerosols and dust into Earth's upper atmosphere, which cooled and darkened the planet-a scenario known as an impact winter. Organic burn markers are observed in K-Pg boundary records globally, but their source is debated. If some were derived from sedimentary carbon, and not solely wildfires, it implies soot from the target rock also contributed to the impact winter. Characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Chicxulub crater sediments and at two deep ocean sites indicate a fossil carbon source that experienced rapid heating, consistent with organic matter ejected during the formation of the crater. Furthermore, PAH size distributions proximal and distal to the crater indicate the ejected carbon was dispersed globally by atmospheric processes. Molecular and charcoal evidence indicates wildfires were also present but more delayed and protracted and likely played a less acute role in biotic extinctions than previously suggested. Based on stratigraphy near the crater, between 7.5 × 1014 and 2.5 × 1015 g of black carbon was released from the target and ejected into the atmosphere, where it circulated the globe within a few hours. This carbon, together with sulfate aerosols and dust, initiated an impact winter and global darkening that curtailed photosynthesis and is widely considered to have caused the K-Pg mass extinction

Analyzing effective communication in mathematics group work : the role of visual mediators and technical terms.

Analyzing and designing productive group work and effective communication constitute ongoing research interests in mathematics education. In this article we contribute to this research by using and developing a newly introduced analytical approach for examining effective communication within group work in mathematics education. By using data from 12-13-year old students playing a dice game as well as from a group of university students working with a proof by induction, the article shows how the link between visual mediators and technical terms are crucial in students’ attempts to communicate effectively. The critical evaluation of visual mediators and technical terms, and of links between them, is useful for researchers interested in analyzing effective communication and designing environments providing opportunities for students to learn mathematics.The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com</p