A new accuracy measure based on bounded relative error for time series forecasting

Many accuracy measures have been proposed in the past for time series forecasting comparisons. However, many of these measures suffer from one or more issues such as poor resistance to outliers and scale dependence. In this paper, while summarising commonly used accuracy measures, a special review is made on the symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, a new accuracy measure called the Unscaled Mean Bounded Relative Absolute Error (UMBRAE), which combines the best features of various alternative measures, is proposed to address the common issues of existing measures. A comparative evaluation on the proposed and related measures has been made with both synthetic and real-world data. The results indicate that the proposed measure, with user selectable benchmark, performs as well as or better than other measures on selected criteria. Though it has been commonly accepted that there is no single best accuracy measure, we suggest that UMBRAE could be a good choice to evaluate forecasting methods, especially for cases where measures based on geometric mean of relative errors, such as the geometric mean relative absolute error, are preferred

Testing for Network and Spatial Autocorrelation

Testing for dependence has been a well-established component of spatial statistical analyses for decades. In particular, several popular test statistics have desirable properties for testing for the presence of spatial autocorrelation in continuous variables. In this paper we propose two contributions to the literature on tests for autocorrelation. First, we propose a new test for autocorrelation in categorical variables. While some methods currently exist for assessing spatial autocorrelation in categorical variables, the most popular method is unwieldy, somewhat ad hoc, and fails to provide grounds for a single omnibus test. Second, we discuss the importance of testing for autocorrelation in data sampled from the nodes of a network, motivated by social network applications. We demonstrate that our proposed statistic for categorical variables can both be used in the spatial and network setting

P113 is a merozoite surface protein that binds the N terminus of Plasmodium falciparum RH5.

Invasion of erythrocytes by Plasmodium falciparum merozoites is necessary for malaria pathogenesis and is therefore a primary target for vaccine development. RH5 is a leading subunit vaccine candidate because anti-RH5 antibodies inhibit parasite growth and the interaction with its erythrocyte receptor basigin is essential for invasion. RH5 is secreted, complexes with other parasite proteins including CyRPA and RIPR, and contains a conserved N-terminal region (RH5Nt) of unknown function that is cleaved from the native protein. Here, we identify P113 as a merozoite surface protein that directly interacts with RH5Nt. Using recombinant proteins and a sensitive protein interaction assay, we establish the binding interdependencies of all the other known RH5 complex components and conclude that the RH5Nt-P113 interaction provides a releasable mechanism for anchoring RH5 to the merozoite surface. We exploit these findings to design a chemically synthesized peptide corresponding to RH5Nt, which could contribute to a cost-effective malaria vaccine

Patterns of mandibular invasion in oral squamous cell carcinoma of the mandibular region

BACKGROUND: Mandibular resections are routinely carried out for achieving a R0 resection for oral cancers. However, the need of mandibular resection to achieve this has always been questioned. The present study was carried out to define the pattern of mandibular involvement in carcinoma of the mandibular region. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 25 consecutive patients who had undergone mandibular resection and were found to have mandibular invasion were studied in a prospective open fashion. After decalcification the specimens were serially sectioned at 1 cm interval to identify invasion of mandibular bone. Type of invasion, route of spread and host cell reactions were also recorded. RESULTS: The mandibular involvement was infiltrative in 14(56%) and erosive in 11(44%). It was cortical in 5(20%), marrow involvement was seen in 15(60%) while 5(20%) had spread through the inferior alveolar canal. Of the 25, 24(96%) lesions were located with in 1 cm of the mandible. CONCLUSION: The possibility of mandibular involvement is higher in patients where tumours are located with in 1 cm of the mandible. Involvement of mandible through the canal of inferior alveolar nerve in the present study was relatively high (20%). Therefore it is recommended that before a decision is taken to preserve the mandible it should be thoroughly screened for possible involvement

The Murchison Widefield Array Transients Survey (MWATS). A search for low-frequency variability in a bright Southern hemisphere sample

We report on a search for low-frequency radio variability in 944 bright (>4 Jy at 154 MHz) unresolved, extragalactic radio sources monitored monthly for several years with the Murchison Widefield Array. In the majority of sources, we find very low levels of variability with typical modulation indices 2.8 yr) with time-averaged modulation indices M¯¯¯¯¯=3.1−7.1M¯=3.1−7.1 per cent. With 7/15 of these variable sources having peaked spectral energy distributions, and only 5.7 per cent of the overall sample having peaked spectra, we find an increase in the prevalence of variability in this spectral class. We conclude that the variability seen in this survey is most probably a consequence of refractive interstellar scintillation and that these objects must have the majority of their flux density contained within angular diameters less than 50 milliarcsec (which we support with multiwavelength data). At 154 MHz, we demonstrate that interstellar scintillation time-scales become long (∼decades) and have low modulation indices, while synchrotron-driven variability can only produce dynamic changes on time-scales of hundreds of years, with flux density changes less than one milli-jansky (without relativistic boosting). From this work, we infer that the low-frequency extragalactic southern sky, as seen by SKA-Low, will be non-variable on time-scales shorter than 1 yr

Geometry and field theory in multi-fractional spacetime

We construct a theory of fields living on continuous geometries with fractional Hausdorff and spectral dimensions, focussing on a flat background analogous to Minkowski spacetime. After reviewing the properties of fractional spaces with fixed dimension, presented in a companion paper, we generalize to a multi-fractional scenario inspired by multi-fractal geometry, where the dimension changes with the scale. This is related to the renormalization group properties of fractional field theories, illustrated by the example of a scalar field. Depending on the symmetries of the Lagrangian, one can define two models. In one of them, the effective dimension flows from 2 in the ultraviolet (UV) and geometry constrains the infrared limit to be four-dimensional. At the UV critical value, the model is rendered power-counting renormalizable. However, this is not the most fundamental regime. Compelling arguments of fractal geometry require an extension of the fractional action measure to complex order. In doing so, we obtain a hierarchy of scales characterizing different geometric regimes. At very small scales, discrete symmetries emerge and the notion of a continuous spacetime begins to blur, until one reaches a fundamental scale and an ultra-microscopic fractal structure. This fine hierarchy of geometries has implications for non-commutative theories and discrete quantum gravity. In the latter case, the present model can be viewed as a top-down realization of a quantum-discrete to classical-continuum transition.Comment: 1+82 pages, 1 figure, 2 tables. v2-3: discussions clarified and improved (especially section 4.5), typos corrected, references added; v4: further typos correcte

Binary and Millisecond Pulsars

We review the main properties, demographics and applications of binary and millisecond radio pulsars. Our knowledge of these exciting objects has greatly increased in recent years, mainly due to successful surveys which have brought the known pulsar population to over 1700. There are now 80 binary and millisecond pulsars associated with the disk of our Galaxy, and a further 103 pulsars in 24 of the Galactic globular clusters. Recent highlights have been the discovery of the first ever double pulsar system and a recent flurry of discoveries in globular clusters, in particular Terzan 5.Comment: 77 pages, 30 figures, available on-line at http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2005-