Bayesian Gaussian Copula Factor Models for Mixed Data.

Gaussian factor models have proven widely useful for parsimoniously characterizing dependence in multivariate data. There is a rich literature on their extension to mixed categorical and continuous variables, using latent Gaussian variables or through generalized latent trait models acommodating measurements in the exponential family. However, when generalizing to non-Gaussian measured variables the latent variables typically influence both the dependence structure and the form of the marginal distributions, complicating interpretation and introducing artifacts. To address this problem we propose a novel class of Bayesian Gaussian copula factor models which decouple the latent factors from the marginal distributions. A semiparametric specification for the marginals based on the extended rank likelihood yields straightforward implementation and substantial computational gains. We provide new theoretical and empirical justifications for using this likelihood in Bayesian inference. We propose new default priors for the factor loadings and develop efficient parameter-expanded Gibbs sampling for posterior computation. The methods are evaluated through simulations and applied to a dataset in political science. The models in this paper are implemented in the R package bfa

Gateway vectors for efficient artificial gene assembly in vitro and expression in yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae

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Mobile phone and tablet apps to support young people’s management of their physical long-term conditions: a systematic review protocol

Background: The prevalence of long-term or chronic conditions that limit activity and reduce quality of life in young people aged 10-24 years is rising. This group has distinct health care needs and requires tailored support strategies to facilitate increasing personal responsibility for the management of their condition wherever possible, as they mature. Mobile phone and tablet mobile technologies featuring software program apps are already well used by young people for social networking or gaming. They have also been utilized in health care to support personal condition management, using condition-specific and patient-tailored software. Such apps have much potential, and there is an emerging body of literature on their use in a health context making this review timely. Objective: The objective of this paper is to develop a systematic review protocol focused on identifying and assessing the effectiveness of mobile phone and tablet apps that support young people’s management of their chronic conditions. Methods: The search strategy will include a combination of standardized indexed search terms and free-text terms related to the key concepts of young people; long-term conditions and mobile technology. Peer-reviewed journal articles published from 2003 that meet the inclusion and exclusion criteria will be identified through searching the generated hits from 5 bibliographical databases. Two independent reviewers will screen the titles and abstracts to determine which articles focus on testing interventions identified as a mobile phone or tablet apps, and that have been designed and delivered to support the management of long-term conditions in young people aged 10-24 years. Data extraction and quality assessment tools will be used to facilitate consistent analysis and synthesis. It is anticipated that several studies will meet the selection criteria but that these are likely to be heterogeneous in terms of study design, reported outcomes, follow-up times, participants’ age, and health condition. Sub-group analyses will be undertaken and where possible meta-analyses will take place.Results: This review will synthesize available knowledge surrounding tablet and mobile phone apps that support management of long term physical health conditions in young people. The findings will be synthesized to determine which elements of the technologies were most effective for this population. Conclusions: This systematic review aims to synthesize existing literature in order to generate findings that will facilitate the development of an app intervention. The review will form the first phase of development and evaluation of a complex intervention as recommended by the United Kingdom Medical Research Council. The knowledge gained from the review will be verified in subsequent phases, which will include primary qualitative work with health professionals and young people with long term conditions as research participants. Young people living with long-term conditions will be involved as co-researchers and consumer advisors in all subsequent phases to develop and evaluate an app to support the management of long-term physical health conditions

Risk factors for hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis in England: a population-based birth cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the timing and duration of RSV bronchiolitis hospital admission among term and preterm infants in England and to identify risk factors for bronchiolitis admission. DESIGN: A population-based birth cohort with follow-up to age 1 year, using the Hospital Episode Statistics database. SETTING: 71 hospitals across England. PARTICIPANTS: We identified 296618 individual birth records from 2007/08 and linked to subsequent hospital admission records during the first year of life. RESULTS: In our cohort there were 7189 hospital admissions with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis, 24.2 admissions per 1000 infants under 1 year (95%CI 23.7-24.8), of which 15% (1050/7189) were born preterm (47.3 bronchiolitis admissions per 1000 preterm infants (95% CI 44.4-50.2)). The peak age group for bronchiolitis admissions was infants aged 1 month and the median was age 120 days (IQR = 61-209 days). The median length of stay was 1 day (IQR = 0-3). The relative risk (RR) of a bronchiolitis admission was higher among infants with known risk factors for severe RSV infection, including those born preterm (RR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.8-2.0) compared with infants born at term. Other conditions also significantly increased risk of bronchiolitis admission, including Down's syndrome (RR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.7-3.7) and cerebral palsy (RR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-4.0). CONCLUSIONS: Most (85%) of the infants who are admitted to hospital with bronchiolitis in England are born at term, with no known predisposing risk factors for severe RSV infection, although risk of admission is higher in known risk groups. The early age of bronchiolitis admissions has important implications for the potential impact and timing of future active and passive immunisations. More research is needed to explain why babies born with Down's syndrome and cerebral palsy are also at higher risk of hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis

Determinants of adults' intention to vaccinate against pandemic swine flu

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Vaccination is one of the cornerstones of controlling an influenza pandemic. To optimise vaccination rates in the general population, ways of identifying determinants that influence decisions to have or not to have a vaccination need to be understood. Therefore, this study aimed to predict intention to have a swine influenza vaccination in an adult population in the UK. An extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour provided the theoretical framework for the study. Methods: Three hundred and sixty two adults from the UK, who were not in vaccination priority groups, completed either an online (n = 306) or pen and paper (n = 56) questionnaire. Data were collected from 30th October 2009, just after swine flu vaccination became available in the UK, and concluded on 31st December 2009. The main outcome of interest was future swine flu vaccination intentions. Results: The extended Theory of Planned Behaviour predicted 60% of adults’ intention to have a swine flu vaccination with attitude, subjective norm, perceived control, anticipating feelings of regret (the impact of missing a vaccination opportunity), intention to have a seasonal vaccine this year, one perceived barrier: “I cannot be bothered to get a swine flu vaccination” and two perceived benefits: “vaccination decreases my chance of getting swine flu or its complications” and “if I get vaccinated for swine flu, I will decrease the frequency of having to consult my doctor,” being significant predictors of intention. Black British were less likely to intend to have a vaccination compared to Asian or White respondents. Conclusions: Theoretical frameworks which identify determinants that influence decisions to have a pandemic influenza vaccination are useful. The implications of this research are discussed with a view to maximising any future pandemic influenza vaccination uptake using theoretically-driven applications.This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. RESULTS: The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens

Paradoxical effects of Worrisome Thoughts Suppression: the influence of depressive mood

Thought suppression increases the persistence of unwanted idiosyncratic worries thoughts when individuals try to suppress them. The failure of suppression may contribute to the development and maintenance of emotional disorders. Depressive people seem particulary prone to engage in unsuccessful mental control strategies such as thought suppression. Worry has been reported to be elevated in depressed individuals and a dysphoric mood may also contribute for the failure of suppression. No studies examine, however, the suppression of worisome thoughts in individuals with depressive symptoms. To investigate the suppression effects of worrisome thoughts, 46 participants were selected according to the cut-off score of a depressive symptomatology scale and they were divided in two groups (subclinical and nonclinical group). All the individuals took part in an experimental paradigm of thought suppression. The results of the mixed factorial analysis of variance revealed an increased frequency of worrisome thoughts during the suppression phase on depending of the depressive symptoms. These findings confirm that depressive mood can reduce the success of suppression.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The kinases MSK1 and MSK2 act as negative regulators of Toll-like receptor signaling

The kinases MSK1 and MSK2 are activated 'downstream' of the p38 and Erk1/2 mitogen-activated protein kinases. Here we found that MSK1 and MSK2 were needed to limit the production of proinflammatory cytokines in response to stimulation of primary macrophages with lipopolysaccharide. By inducing transcription of the mitogen-activated protein kinase phosphatase DUSP1 and the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin 10, MSK1 and MSK2 exerted many negative feedback mechanisms. Deficiency in MSK1 and MSK2 prevented the binding of phosphorylated transcription factors CREB and ATF1 to the promoters of the genes encoding interleukin 10 and DUSP1. Mice doubly deficient in MSK1 and MSK2 were hypersensitive to lipopolysaccharide-induced endotoxic shock and showed prolonged inflammation in a model of toxic contact eczema induced by phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate. Our results establish MSK1 and MSK2 as key components of negative feedback mechanisms needed to limit Toll-like receptor-driven inflammation.</p

A cross-sectional study of vascular risk factors in a rural South African population : data from the Southern African Stroke Prevention Initiative (SASPI)

Background: Rural sub-Saharan Africa is at an early stage of economic and health transition. It is predicted that the 21st century will see a serious added economic burden from non-communicable disease including vascular disease in low-income countries as they progress through the transition. The stage of vascular disease in a population is thought to result from the prevalence of vascular risk factors. Already hypertension and stroke are common in adults in sub-Saharan Africa. Using a multidisciplinary approach we aimed to assess the prevalence of several vascular risk factors in Agincourt, a rural demographic surveillance site in South Africa. Methods: We performed a cross sectional random sample survey of adults aged over 35 in Agincourt (population ≈ 70 000). Participants were visited at home by a trained nurse who administered a questionnaire, carried out clinical measurements and took a blood sample. From this we assessed participants' history of vascular risk, blood pressure using an OMRON 705 CP monitor, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), ankle brachial index (ABI), and total and HDL cholesterol. Results: 402 people (24% men) participated. There was a high prevalence of smoking in men, but the number of cigarettes smoked was small. There was a striking difference in mean BMI between men and women (22.8 kg/m2 versus 27.2 kg/m2), but levels of blood pressure were very similar. 43% of participants had a blood pressure greater than 140/90 or were on anti-hypertensive treatment and 37% of participants identified with measured high blood pressure were on pharmacological treatment. 12% of participants had an ABI of < 0.9, sugesting the presence of sub-clinical atheroma. 25.6% of participants had a total cholesterol level > 5 mmol/l. Conclusion: We found a high prevalence of hypertension, obesity in women, and a suggestion of subclinical atheroma despite relatively favourable cholesterol levels in a rural South African population. South Africa is facing the challenge of an emerging epidemic of vascular disease. Research to establish the social determinates of these risk factors and interventions to reduce both individual and population risk are required

Green Plants in the Red: A Baseline Global Assessment for the IUCN Sampled Red List Index for Plants

Plants provide fundamental support systems for life on Earth and are the basis for all terrestrial ecosystems; a decline in plant diversity will be detrimental to all other groups of organisms including humans. Decline in plant diversity has been hard to quantify, due to the huge numbers of known and yet to be discovered species and the lack of an adequate baseline assessment of extinction risk against which to track changes. The biodiversity of many remote parts of the world remains poorly known, and the rate of new assessments of extinction risk for individual plant species approximates the rate at which new plant species are described. Thus the question ‘How threatened are plants?’ is still very difficult to answer accurately. While completing assessments for each species of plant remains a distant prospect, by assessing a randomly selected sample of species the Sampled Red List Index for Plants gives, for the first time, an accurate view of how threatened plants are across the world. It represents the first key phase of ongoing efforts to monitor the status of the world’s plants. More than 20% of plant species assessed are threatened with extinction, and the habitat with the most threatened species is overwhelmingly tropical rain forest, where the greatest threat to plants is anthropogenic habitat conversion, for arable and livestock agriculture, and harvesting of natural resources. Gymnosperms (e.g. conifers and cycads) are the most threatened group, while a third of plant species included in this study have yet to receive an assessment or are so poorly known that we cannot yet ascertain whether they are threatened or not. This study provides a baseline assessment from which trends in the status of plant biodiversity can be measured and periodically reassessed