'Word from the street' : when non-electoral representative claims meet electoral representation in the United Kingdom

Taking the specific case of street protests in the UK – the ‘word from the street’– this article examines recent (re)conceptualizations of political representation, most particularly Saward’s notion of ‘representative claim’. The specific example of nonelectoral claims articulated by protestors and demonstrators in the UK is used to illustrate: the processes of making, constituting, evaluating and accepting claims for and by constituencies and audiences; and the continuing distinctiveness of claims based upon electoral representation. Two basic questions structure the analysis: first, why would the political representative claims of elected representatives trump the nonelectoral claims of mass demonstrators and, second, in what ways does the ‘perceived legitimacy’ of the former differ from the latter

Mathematical model insights into arsenic detoxification

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Arsenic in drinking water, a major health hazard to millions of people in South and East Asia and in other parts of the world, is ingested primarily as trivalent inorganic arsenic (iAs), which then undergoes hepatic methylation to methylarsonic acid (MMAs) and a second methylation to dimethylarsinic acid (DMAs). Although MMAs and DMAs are also known to be toxic, DMAs is more easily excreted in the urine and therefore methylation has generally been considered a detoxification pathway. A collaborative modeling project between epidemiologists, biologists, and mathematicians has the purpose of explaining existing data on methylation in human studies in Bangladesh and also testing, by mathematical modeling, effects of nutritional supplements that could increase As methylation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We develop a whole body mathematical model of arsenic metabolism including arsenic absorption, storage, methylation, and excretion. The parameters for arsenic methylation in the liver were taken from the biochemical literature. The transport parameters between compartments are largely unknown, so we adjust them so that the model accurately predicts the urine excretion rates of time for the iAs, MMAs, and DMAs in single dose experiments on human subjects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We test the model by showing that, with no changes in parameters, it predicts accurately the time courses of urinary excretion in mutiple dose experiments conducted on human subjects. Our main purpose is to use the model to study and interpret the data on the effects of folate supplementation on arsenic methylation and excretion in clinical trials in Bangladesh. Folate supplementation of folate-deficient individuals resulted in a 14% decrease in arsenicals in the blood. This is confirmed by the model and the model predicts that arsenicals in the liver will decrease by 19% and arsenicals in other body stores by 26% in these same individuals. In addition, the model predicts that arsenic methyltransferase has been upregulated by a factor of two in this population. Finally, we also show that a modification of the model gives excellent fits to the data on arsenic metabolism in human cultured hepatocytes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The analysis of the Bangladesh data using the model suggests that folate supplementation may be more effective at reducing whole body arsenic than previously expected. There is almost no data on the upregulation of arsenic methyltransferase in populations chronically exposed to arsenic. Our model predicts upregulation by a factor of two in the Bangladesh population studied. This prediction should be verified since it could have important public health consequences both for treatment strategies and for setting appropriate limits on arsenic in drinking water. Our model has compartments for the binding of arsenicals to proteins inside of cells and we show that these comparments are necessary to obtain good fits to data. Protein-binding of arsenicals should be explored in future biochemical studies.</p

Religiosity and teen birth rate in the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The children of teen mothers have been reported to have higher rates of several unfavorable mental health outcomes. Past research suggests several possible mechanisms for an association between religiosity and teen birth rate in communities.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The present study compiled publicly accessible data on birth rates, conservative religious beliefs, income, and abortion rates in the U.S., aggregated at the state level. Data on teen birth rates and abortion originated from the Center for Disease Control; on income, from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, and on religious beliefs, from the U.S. Religious Landscape Survey carried out by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. We computed correlations and partial correlations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Increased religiosity in residents of states in the U.S. strongly predicted a higher teen birth rate, with r = 0.73 (p < 0.0005). Religiosity correlated negatively with median household income, with r = -0.66, and income correlated negatively with teen birth rate, with r = -0.63. But the correlation between religiosity and teen birth rate remained highly significant when income was controlled for via partial correlation: the partial correlation between religiosity and teen birth rate, controlling for income, was 0.53 (p < 0.0005). Abortion rate correlated negatively with religiosity, with r = -0.45, p = 0.002. However, the partial correlation between teen birth rate and religiosity remained high and significant when controlling for abortion rate (partial correlation = 0.68, p < 0.0005) and when controlling for both abortion rate and income (partial correlation = 0.54, p = 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>With data aggregated at the state level, conservative religious beliefs strongly predict U.S. teen birth rates, in a relationship that does not appear to be the result of confounding by income or abortion rates. One possible explanation for this relationship is that teens in more religious communities may be less likely to use contraception.</p

Barriers to colorectal cancer screening in community health centers: A qualitative study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Colorectal cancer screening rates are low among disadvantaged patients; few studies have explored barriers to screening in community health centers. The purpose of this study was to describe barriers to/facilitators of colorectal cancer screening among diverse patients served by community health centers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We identified twenty-three outpatients who were eligible for colorectal cancer screening and their 10 primary care physicians. Using in-depth semi-structured interviews, we asked patients to describe factors influencing their screening decisions. For each unscreened patient, we asked his or her physician to describe barriers to screening. We conducted patient interviews in English (n = 8), Spanish (n = 2), Portuguese (n = 5), Portuguese Creole (n = 1), and Haitian Creole (n = 7). We audiotaped and transcribed the interviews, and then identified major themes in the interviews.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Four themes emerged: 1) Unscreened patients cited lack of trust in doctors as a barrier to screening whereas few physicians identified this barrier; 2) Unscreened patients identified lack of symptoms as the reason they had not been screened; 3) A doctor's recommendation, or lack thereof, significantly influenced patients' decisions to be screened; 4) Patients, but not their physicians, cited fatalistic views about cancer as a barrier. Conversely, physicians identified competing priorities, such as psychosocial stressors or comorbid medical illness, as barriers to screening. In this culturally diverse group of patients seen at community health centers, similar barriers to screening were reported by patients of different backgrounds, but physicians perceived other factors as more important.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Further study of these barriers is warranted.</p

Hypoglycemia in Non-Diabetic In-Patients: Clinical or Criminal?

BACKGROUND AND AIM: We wished to establish the frequency of unexpected hypoglycemia observed in non diabetic patients outside the intensive care unit and to determine if they have a plausible clinical explanation. METHODS: We analysed data for 2010 from three distinct sources to identify non diabetic hypoglycaemic patients: bedside and laboratory blood glucose measurements; medication records for those treatments (high-strength glucose solution and glucagon) commonly given to reverse hypoglycemia; and diagnostic codes for hypoglycemia. We excluded from the denominator admissions of patients with a diagnosis of diabetes or prescribed diabetic medication. Case notes of patients identified were reviewed. We used capture-recapture methods to establish the likely frequency of hypoglycemia in non-diabetic in-patients outside intensive care unit at different cut-off points for hypoglycemia. We also recorded co-morbidities that might have given rise to hypoglycemia. RESULTS: Among the 37,898 admissions, the triggers identified 71 hypoglycaemic episodes at a cut-off of 3.3 mmol/l. Estimated frequency at 3.3 mmol/l was 50(CI 33-93), at 3.0 mmol/l, 36(CI 24-64), at 2.7 mmol/l, 13(CI 11-19), at 2.5 mmol/l, 11(CI 9-15) and at 2.2 mmol/l, 8(CI 7-11) per 10,000 admissions. Admissions of patients aged above 65 years were approximately 50% more likely to have an episode of hypoglycemia. Most were associated with important co-morbidities. CONCLUSION: Significant non-diabetic hypoglycemia in hospital in-patients (at or below 2.7 mmol/l) outside critical care is rare. It is sufficiently rare for occurrences to merit case-note review and diagnostic blood tests, unless an obvious explanation is found

Evaluation of changes in postnatal care using the "Parents' Postnatal Sense of Security" instrument and an assessment of the instrument's reliability and validity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A sense of security is important for experiences of parenthood in the early postpartum period. The objectives of this study were to evaluate two models of postnatal care using a questionnaire incorporating the Parents' Postpartum Sense of Security (<it>PPSS</it>) instrument and to test the validity of the <it>PPSS </it>instrument.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Postal surveys were sent to 234 mothers who had experienced two different forms of postnatal care (study group and control group) and returned by 86.8%. These two groups of mothers were compared for total scores on the <it>PPSS </it>instrument. Demographic variables and mothers' opinions about care interventions were also compared and these variables were tested for correlations with the total <it>PPSS </it>score. A regression analysis was carried out to assess areas of midwifery care which might affect a sense of security. The internal consistency and concurrent validity of the instrument were tested for the total population.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>there were no significant differences between the groups for scores on the <it>PPSS </it>instrument. A total of three variables predicted 26% of the variability on the <it>PPSS </it>scores for the study group and five variables predicted 37% of the variability in the control group. One variable was common to both: "<it>The midwives on the postnatal ward paid attention to the mother as an individual"</it>. There were significant correlations between the total <it>PPSS </it>scores and scores for postpartum talks and visits to the breastfeeding clinic. There was also a significant correlation between the single question: "<it>I felt secure during the first postpartum week</it>" and the total <it>PPSS </it>score. Tests for internal consistency and concurrent validity were satisfactory.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The proposed new model of care neither improved nor impaired mothers' feelings of security the week following birth. Being seen as an individual by the midwife who provides postnatal care may be an important variable for mothers' sense of postnatal security. It is possible that postpartum talks may encourage the processing of childbirth experiences in a positive direction. Availability of breastfeeding support may also add to a sense of security postpartum. The <it>PPSS </it>instrument has shown acceptable reliability and validity.</p

Sexual Display and Mate Choice in an Energetically Costly Environment

Sexual displays and mate choice often take place under the same set of environmental conditions and, as a consequence, may be exposed to the same set of environmental constraints. Surprisingly, however, very few studies consider the effects of environmental costs on sexual displays and mate choice simultaneously. We conducted an experiment, manipulating water flow in large flume tanks, to examine how an energetically costly environment might affect the sexual display and mate choice behavior of male and female guppies, Poecilia reticulata. We found that male guppies performed fewer sexual displays and became less choosy, with respect to female size, in the presence of a water current compared to those tested in still water. In contrast to males, female responsive to male displays did not differ between the water current treatments and females exhibited no mate preferences with respect to male size or coloration in either treatment. The results of our study underscore the importance of considering the simultaneous effects of environmental costs on the sexual behaviors of both sexes

Prospective validation of the 4C prognostic models for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol

Purpose: To prospectively validate two risk scores to predict mortality (4C Mortality) and in-hospital deterioration (4C Deterioration) among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. // Methods: Prospective observational cohort study of adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed or highly suspected COVID-19 recruited into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study in 306 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales. Patients were recruited between 27 August 2020 and 17 February 2021, with at least 4 weeks follow-up before final data extraction. The main outcome measures were discrimination and calibration of models for in-hospital deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) and mortality, incorporating predefined subgroups. // Results: 76 588 participants were included, of whom 27 352 (37.4%) deteriorated and 12 581 (17.4%) died. Both the 4C Mortality (0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)) and 4C Deterioration scores (pooled C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.77)) demonstrated consistent discrimination across all nine National Health Service regions, with similar performance metrics to the original validation cohorts. Calibration remained stable (4C Mortality: pooled slope 1.09, pooled calibration-in-the-large 0.12; 4C Deterioration: 1.00, –0.04), with no need for temporal recalibration during the second UK pandemic wave of hospital admissions. // Conclusion: Both 4C risk stratification models demonstrate consistent performance to predict clinical deterioration and mortality in a large prospective second wave validation cohort of UK patients. Despite recent advances in the treatment and management of adults hospitalised with COVID-19, both scores can continue to inform clinical decision making

Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions. METHODS: We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London). FINDINGS: 74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal-external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [-0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than any other reproducible prognostic model. INTERPRETATION: The 4C Deterioration model has strong potential for clinical utility and generalisability to predict clinical deterioration and inform decision making among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London

Contribution of Distinct Homeodomain DNA Binding Specificities to Drosophila Embryonic Mesodermal Cell-Specific Gene Expression Programs

Homeodomain (HD) proteins are a large family of evolutionarily conserved transcription factors (TFs) having diverse developmental functions, often acting within the same cell types, yet many members of this family paradoxically recognize similar DNA sequences. Thus, with multiple family members having the potential to recognize the same DNA sequences in cis-regulatory elements, it is difficult to ascertain the role of an individual HD or a subclass of HDs in mediating a particular developmental function. To investigate this problem, we focused our studies on the Drosophila embryonic mesoderm where HD TFs are required to establish not only segmental identities (such as the Hox TFs), but also tissue and cell fate specification and differentiation (such as the NK-2 HDs, Six HDs and identity HDs (I-HDs)). Here we utilized the complete spectrum of DNA binding specificities determined by protein binding microarrays (PBMs) for a diverse collection of HDs to modify the nucleotide sequences of numerous mesodermal enhancers to be recognized by either no or a single subclass of HDs, and subsequently assayed the consequences of these changes on enhancer function in transgenic reporter assays. These studies show that individual mesodermal enhancers receive separate transcriptional input from both I–HD and Hox subclasses of HDs. In addition, we demonstrate that enhancers regulating upstream components of the mesodermal regulatory network are targeted by the Six class of HDs. Finally, we establish the necessity of NK-2 HD binding sequences to activate gene expression in multiple mesodermal tissues, supporting a potential role for the NK-2 HD TF Tinman (Tin) as a pioneer factor that cooperates with other factors to regulate cell-specific gene expression programs. Collectively, these results underscore the critical role played by HDs of multiple subclasses in inducing the unique genetic programs of individual mesodermal cells, and in coordinating the gene regulatory networks directing mesoderm development.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant R01 HG005287