Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy

This study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, Autoregressive Moving Average model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors, and Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China. Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that even if the risks and impacts of the epidemic are significant, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development.</jats:p

Seasonal variations in carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and C:N:P stoichiometry in different organs of a Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr. plantation in the Qinling Mountains, China

Understanding how concentrations of elements and their stoichiometry change with plant growth and age is critical for predicting plant community responses to environmental change. Weusedlong-term field experiments to explore how the leaf, stem and root carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) concentrations and their stoichiometry changed with growth and stand age in a L.principis-rupprechtii Mayr. plantation from 2012–2015 in the Qinling Mountains, China. Our results showed that the C, N and P concentrations and stoichiometric ratios in different tissues of larch stands were affected by stand age, organ type andsampling month and displayed multiple correlations with increased stand age in different growing seasons. Generally, leaf C and N concentrations were greatest in the fast-growing season, but leaf P concentrations were greatest in the early growing season. However, no clear seasonal tendencies in the stem and root C, N and P concentrations were observed with growth. In contrast to N and P, few differences were found in organ-specific C concentrations. Leaf N:P was greatest in the fast-growing season, while C:N and C:P were greatest in the late-growing season. No clear variations were observed in stem and root C:N, C:P andN:Pthroughout the entire growing season, but leaf N:P was less than 14, suggesting that the growth of larch stands was limited by N in our study region. Compared to global plant element concentrations and stoichiometry, the leaves of larch stands had higher C, P, C:NandC:PbutlowerNandN:P,andtherootshadgreater PandC:NbutlowerN,C:Pand N:P. Our study provides baseline information for describing the changes in nutritional elements with plant growth, which will facilitates plantation forest management and restoration, and makes avaluable contribution to the global data pool on leaf nutrition and stoichiometry

The Optokinetic Reflex as a Tool for Quantitative Analyses of Nervous System Function in Mice: Application to Genetic and Drug-Induced Variation

The optokinetic reflex (OKR), which serves to stabilize a moving image on the retina, is a behavioral response that has many favorable attributes as a test of CNS function. The OKR requires no training, assesses the function of diverse CNS circuits, can be induced repeatedly with minimal fatigue or adaptation, and produces an electronic record that is readily and objectively quantifiable

Genomic Analysis of Individual Differences in Ethanol Drinking: Evidence for Non-Genetic Factors in C57BL/6 Mice

Genetic analysis of factors affecting risk to develop excessive ethanol drinking has been extensively studied in humans and animal models for over 20 years. However, little progress has been made in determining molecular mechanisms underlying environmental or non-genetic events contributing to variation in ethanol drinking. Here, we identify persistent and substantial variation in ethanol drinking behavior within an inbred mouse strain and utilize this model to identify gene networks influencing such “non-genetic” variation in ethanol intake. C57BL/6NCrl mice showed persistent inter-individual variation of ethanol intake in a two-bottle choice paradigm over a three-week period, ranging from less than 1 g/kg to over 14 g/kg ethanol in an 18 h interval. Differences in sweet or bitter taste susceptibility or litter effects did not appreciably correlate with ethanol intake variation. Whole genome microarray expression analysis in nucleus accumbens, prefrontal cortex and ventral midbrain region of individual animals identified gene expression patterns correlated with ethanol intake. Results included several gene networks previously implicated in ethanol behaviors, such as glutamate signaling, BDNF and genes involved in synaptic vesicle function. Additionally, genes functioning in epigenetic chromatin or DNA modifications such as acetylation and/or methylation also had expression patterns correlated with ethanol intake. In verification for the significance of the expression findings, we found that a histone deacetylase inhibitor, trichostatin A, caused an increase in 2-bottle ethanol intake. Our results thus implicate specific brain regional gene networks, including chromatin modification factors, as potentially important mechanisms underlying individual variation in ethanol intake

New Functions of Ctf18-RFC in Preserving Genome Stability outside Its Role in Sister Chromatid Cohesion

Expansion of DNA trinucleotide repeats causes at least 15 hereditary neurological diseases, and these repeats also undergo contraction and fragility. Current models to explain this genetic instability invoke erroneous DNA repair or aberrant replication. Here we show that CAG/CTG tracts are stabilized in Saccharomyces cerevisiae by the alternative clamp loader/unloader Ctf18-Dcc1-Ctf8-RFC complex (Ctf18-RFC). Mutants in Ctf18-RFC increased all three forms of triplet repeat instability—expansions, contractions, and fragility—with effect over a wide range of allele lengths from 20–155 repeats. Ctf18-RFC predominated among the three alternative clamp loaders, with mutants in Elg1-RFC or Rad24-RFC having less effect on trinucleotide repeats. Surprisingly, chl1, scc1-73, or scc2-4 mutants defective in sister chromatid cohesion (SCC) did not increase instability, suggesting that Ctf18-RFC protects triplet repeats independently of SCC. Instead, three results suggest novel roles for Ctf18-RFC in facilitating genomic stability. First, genetic instability in mutants of Ctf18-RFC was exacerbated by simultaneous deletion of the fork stabilizer Mrc1, but suppressed by deletion of the repair protein Rad52. Second, single-cell analysis showed that mutants in Ctf18-RFC had a slowed S phase and a striking G2/M accumulation, often with an abnormal multi-budded morphology. Third, ctf18 cells exhibit increased Rad52 foci in S phase, often persisting into G2, indicative of high levels of DNA damage. The presence of a repeat tract greatly magnified the ctf18 phenotypes. Together these results indicate that Ctf18-RFC has additional important functions in preserving genome stability, besides its role in SCC, which we propose include lesion bypass by replication forks and post-replication repair

An Evolutionary Conserved Role for Anaplastic Lymphoma Kinase in Behavioral Responses to Ethanol

Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (Alk) is a gene expressed in the nervous system that encodes a receptor tyrosine kinase commonly known for its oncogenic function in various human cancers. We have determined that Alk is associated with altered behavioral responses to ethanol in the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, in mice, and in humans. Mutant flies containing transposon insertions in dAlk demonstrate increased resistance to the sedating effect of ethanol. Database analyses revealed that Alk expression levels in the brains of recombinant inbred mice are negatively correlated with ethanol-induced ataxia and ethanol consumption. We therefore tested Alk gene knockout mice and found that they sedate longer in response to high doses of ethanol and consume more ethanol than wild-type mice. Finally, sequencing of human ALK led to the discovery of four polymorphisms associated with a low level of response to ethanol, an intermediate phenotype that is predictive of future alcohol use disorders (AUDs). These results suggest that Alk plays an evolutionary conserved role in ethanol-related behaviors. Moreover, ALK may be a novel candidate gene conferring risk for AUDs as well as a potential target for pharmacological intervention

Order in Spontaneous Behavior

Brains are usually described as input/output systems: they transform sensory input into motor output. However, the motor output of brains (behavior) is notoriously variable, even under identical sensory conditions. The question of whether this behavioral variability merely reflects residual deviations due to extrinsic random noise in such otherwise deterministic systems or an intrinsic, adaptive indeterminacy trait is central for the basic understanding of brain function. Instead of random noise, we find a fractal order (resembling Lévy flights) in the temporal structure of spontaneous flight maneuvers in tethered Drosophila fruit flies. Lévy-like probabilistic behavior patterns are evolutionarily conserved, suggesting a general neural mechanism underlying spontaneous behavior. Drosophila can produce these patterns endogenously, without any external cues. The fly's behavior is controlled by brain circuits which operate as a nonlinear system with unstable dynamics far from equilibrium. These findings suggest that both general models of brain function and autonomous agents ought to include biologically relevant nonlinear, endogenous behavior-initiating mechanisms if they strive to realistically simulate biological brains or out-compete other agents