Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

An Assessment of the Impact of Hafting on Paleoindian Point Variability

It has long been argued that the form of North American Paleoindian points was affected by hafting. According to this hypothesis, hafting constrained point bases such that they are less variable than point blades. The results of several studies have been claimed to be consistent with this hypothesis. However, there are reasons to be skeptical of these results. None of the studies employed statistical tests, and all of them focused on points recovered from kill and camp sites, which makes it difficult to be certain that the differences in variability are the result of hafting rather than a consequence of resharpening. Here, we report a study in which we tested the predictions of the hafting hypothesis by statistically comparing the variability of different parts of Clovis points. We controlled for the potentially confounding effects of resharpening by analyzing largely unused points from caches as well as points from kill and camp sites. The results of our analyses were not consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis. We found that several blade characters and point thickness were no more variable than the base characters. Our results indicate that the hafting hypothesis does not hold for Clovis points and indicate that there is a need to test its applicability in relation to post-Clovis Paleoindian points

Soliton pair dynamics in patterned ferromagnetic ellipses

Confinement alters the energy landscape of nanoscale magnets, leading to the appearance of unusual magnetic states, such as vortices, for example. Many basic questions concerning dynamical and interaction effects remain unanswered, and nanomagnets are convenient model systems for studying these fundamental physical phenomena. A single vortex in restricted geometry, also known as a non-localized soliton, possesses a characteristic translational excitation mode that corresponds to spiral-like motion of the vortex core around its equilibrium position. Here, we investigate, by a microwave reflection technique, the dynamics of magnetic soliton pairs confined in lithographically defined, ferromagnetic Permalloy ellipses. Through a comparison with micromagnetic simulations, the observed strong resonances in the subgigahertz frequency range can be assigned to the translational modes of vortex pairs with parallel or antiparallel core polarizations. Vortex polarizations play a negligible role in the static interaction between two vortices, but their effect dominates the dynamics.Comment: supplemental movies on http://www.nature.com/nphys/journal/v1/n3/suppinfo/nphys173_S1.htm

Socio-cultural influences on the behaviour of South Asian women with diabetes in pregnancy: qualitative study using a multi-level theoretical approach

BACKGROUND: Diabetes in pregnancy is common in South Asians, especially those from low-income backgrounds, and leads to short-term morbidity and longer-term metabolic programming in mother and offspring. We sought to understand the multiple influences on behaviour (hence risks to metabolic health) of South Asian mothers and their unborn child, theorise how these influences interact and build over time, and inform the design of culturally congruent, multi-level interventions. METHODS: Our sample for this qualitative study was 45 women of Bangladeshi, Indian, Sri Lankan, or Pakistani origin aged 21-45 years with a history of diabetes in pregnancy, recruited from diabetes and antenatal services in two deprived London boroughs. Overall, 17 women shared their experiences of diabetes, pregnancy, and health services in group discussions and 28 women gave individual narrative interviews, facilitated by multilingual researchers, audiotaped, translated, and transcribed. Data were analysed using the constant comparative method, drawing on sociological and narrative theories. RESULTS: Key storylines (over-arching narratives) recurred across all ethnic groups studied. Short-term storylines depicted the experience of diabetic pregnancy as stressful, difficult to control, and associated with negative symptoms, especially tiredness. Taking exercise and restricting diet often worsened these symptoms and conflicted with advice from relatives and peers. Many women believed that exercise in pregnancy would damage the fetus and drain the mother's strength, and that eating would be strength-giving for mother and fetus. These short-term storylines were nested within medium-term storylines about family life, especially the cultural, practical, and material constraints of the traditional South Asian wife and mother role and past experiences of illness and healthcare, and within longer-term storylines about genetic, cultural, and material heritage - including migration, acculturation, and family memories of food insecurity. While peer advice was familiar, meaningful, and morally resonant, health education advice from clinicians was usually unfamiliar and devoid of cultural meaning. CONCLUSIONS: 'Behaviour change' interventions aimed at preventing and managing diabetes in South Asian women before and during pregnancy are likely to be ineffective if delivered in a socio-cultural vacuum. Individual education should be supplemented with community-level interventions to address the socio-material constraints and cultural frames within which behavioural 'choices' are made

Estimation of Ligament Loading and Anterior Tibial Translation in Healthy and ACL-Deficient Knees During Gait and the Influence of Increasing Tibial Slope Using EMG-Driven Approach

The purpose of this study was to develop a biomechanical model to estimate anterior tibial translation (ATT), anterior shear forces, and ligament loading in the healthy and anterior cruciate ligament (ACL)-deficient knee joint during gait. This model used electromyography (EMG), joint position, and force plate data as inputs to calculate ligament loading during stance phase. First, an EMG-driven model was used to calculate forces for the major muscles crossing the knee joint. The calculated muscle forces were used as inputs to a knee model that incorporated a knee–ligament model in order to solve for ATT and ligament forces. The model took advantage of using EMGs as inputs, and could account for the abnormal muscle activation patterns of ACL-deficient gait. We validated our model by comparing the calculated results with previous in vitro, in vivo, and numerical studies of healthy and ACL-deficient knees, and this gave us confidence on the accuracy of our model calculations. Our model predicted that ATT increased throughout stance phase for the ACL-deficient knee compared with the healthy knee. The medial collateral ligament functioned as the main passive restraint to anterior shear force in the ACL-deficient knee. Although strong co-contraction of knee flexors was found to help restrain ATT in the ACL-deficient knee, it did not counteract the effect of ACL rupture. Posterior inclination angle of the tibial plateau was found to be a crucial parameter in determining knee mechanics, and increasing the tibial slope inclination in our model would increase the resulting ATT and ligament forces in both healthy and ACL-deficient knees

Evidence-based effect size estimation:An illustration using the case of acupuncture for cancer-related fatigue

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Estimating a realistic effect size is an important issue in the planning of clinical studies of complementary and alternative medicine therapies. When a minimally important difference is not available, researchers may estimate effect size using the published literature. This evidence-based effect size estimation may be used to produce a range of empirically-informed effect size and consequent sample size estimates. We provide an illustration of deriving plausible effect size ranges for a study of acupuncture in the relief of post-chemotherapy fatigue in breast cancer patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A PubMed search identified three uncontrolled studies reporting the effect of acupuncture in relieving fatigue. A separate search identified five randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with a wait-list control of breast cancer patients receiving standard care that reported data on fatigue. We use these published data to produce best, average, and worst-case effect size estimates and related sample size estimates for a trial of acupuncture in the relief of cancer-related fatigue relative to a wait-list control receiving standard care.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Use of evidence-based effect size estimation to calculate sample size requirements for a study of acupuncture in relieving fatigue in breast cancer survivors relative to a wait-list control receiving standard care suggests that an adequately-powered phase III randomized controlled trial comprised of two arms would require at least 101 subjects (52 per arm) if a strong effect is assumed for acupuncture and 235 (118 per arm) if a moderate effect is assumed.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Evidence-based effect size estimation helps justify assumptions in light of empirical evidence and can lead to more realistic sample size calculations, an outcome that would be of great benefit for the field of complementary and alternative medicine.</p

Apoptosis Inducing Effect of Plumbagin on Colonic Cancer Cells Depends on Expression of COX-2

Plumbagin, a quinonoid found in the plants of the Plumbaginaceae, possesses medicinal properties. In this study we investigated the anti-proliferative and apoptotic activity of plumbagin by using two human colonic cancer cell lines, HT29 and HCT15. IC50 of Plumbagin for HCT15 and HT29 cells (22.5 µM and 62.5 µM, respectively) were significantly different. To study the response of cancer cells during treatment strategies, cells were treated with two different concentrations, 15 µM, 30 µM for HCT15 and 50 µM, 75 µM for HT29 cells. Though activation of NFκB, Caspases-3, elevated levels of TNF-α, cytosolic Cytochrome C were seen in both HCT15 cells HT29 treated with plumbagin, aberrant apoptosis with decreased level of pEGFR, pAkt, pGsk-3β, PCNA and Cyclin D1was observed only in 15 µM and 30 µM plumbagin treated HCT15 and 75 µM plumbagin treated HT29 cells. This suggests that plumbagin induces apoptosis in both HCT15 cells and HT29 treated, whereas, proliferation was inhibited only in 15 µM and 30 µM plumbagin treated HCT15 and 75 µM plumbagin treated HT29 cells, but not in 50 µM plumbagin treated HT29 cells. Expression of COX-2 was decreased in 75 µM plumbagin treated HT29 cells when compared to 50 µM plumbagin treated HT29 cells, whereas HCT15 cells lack COX. Hence the observed resistance to induction of apoptosis in 50 µM plumbagin treated HT29 cells are attributed to the expression of COX-2. In conclusion, plumbagin induces apoptosis in colonic cancer cells through TNF-α mediated pathway depending on expression of COX-2 expression

Analytic philosophy for biomedical research: the imperative of applying yesterday's timeless messages to today's impasses

The mantra that "the best way to predict the future is to invent it" (attributed to the computer scientist Alan Kay) exemplifies some of the expectations from the technical and innovative sides of biomedical research at present. However, for technical advancements to make real impacts both on patient health and genuine scientific understanding, quite a number of lingering challenges facing the entire spectrum from protein biology all the way to randomized controlled trials should start to be overcome. The proposal in this chapter is that philosophy is essential in this process. By reviewing select examples from the history of science and philosophy, disciplines which were indistinguishable until the mid-nineteenth century, I argue that progress toward the many impasses in biomedicine can be achieved by emphasizing theoretical work (in the true sense of the word 'theory') as a vital foundation for experimental biology. Furthermore, a philosophical biology program that could provide a framework for theoretical investigations is outlined

Identifying divergent design thinking through the observable behavior of service design novices

© 2018, Springer Nature B.V. Design thinking holds the key to innovation processes, but is often difficult to detect because of its implicit nature. We undertook a study of novice designers engaged in team-based design exercises in order to explore the correlation between design thinking and designers’ physical (observable) behavior and to identify new, objective, design thinking identification methods. Our study addresses the topic by using data collection method of “think aloud” and data analysis method of “protocol analysis” along with the unconstrained concept generation environment. Collected data from the participants without service design experience were analyzed by open and selective coding. Through the research, we found correlations between physical activity and divergent thinking, and also identified physical behaviors that predict a designer’s transition to divergent thinking. We conclude that there are significant relations between designers’ design thinking and the behavioral features of their body and face. This approach opens possible new ways to undertake design process research and also design capability evaluation

Individual and Situational Factors Related to Young Women’s Likelihood of Confronting Sexism in Their Everyday Lives

Factors related to young women’s reported likelihood of confronting sexism were investigated. Participants were 338 U.S. female undergraduates (M = 19 years) attending a California university. They were asked to complete questionnaire measures and to write a personal narrative about an experience with sexism. Approximately half (46%) the women reported confronting the perpetrator. Individual factors (prior experience with sexism, feminist identification, collective action) and situational factors (familiarity and status of perpetrator, type of sexism) were tested as predictors in a logistic regression. Women were less likely to report confronting sexism if (1) they did not identify as feminists, (2) the perpetrator was unfamiliar or high-status/familiar (vs. familiar/equal-status), or (3) the type of sexism involved unwanted sexual attention (vs. sexist comments)