Decision-Making in Research Tasks with Sequential Testing

Background: In a recent controversial essay, published by JPA Ioannidis in PLoS Medicine, it has been argued that in some research fields, most of the published findings are false. Based on theoretical reasoning it can be shown that small effect sizes, error-prone tests, low priors of the tested hypotheses and biases in the evaluation and publication of research findings increase the fraction of false positives. These findings raise concerns about the reliability of research. However, they are based on a very simple scenario of scientific research, where single tests are used to evaluate independent hypotheses. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this study, we present computer simulations and experimental approaches for analyzing more realistic scenarios. In these scenarios, research tasks are solved sequentially, i.e. subsequent tests can be chosen depending on previous results. We investigate simple sequential testing and scenarios where only a selected subset of results can be published and used for future rounds of test choice. Results from computer simulations indicate that for the tasks analyzed in this study, the fraction of false among the positive findings declines over several rounds of testing if the most informative tests are performed. Our experiments show that human subjects frequently perform the most informative tests, leading to a decline of false positives as expected from the simulations. Conclusions/Significance: For the research tasks studied here, findings tend to become more reliable over time. We also find that the performance in those experimental settings where not all performed tests could be published turned out to be surprisingly inefficient. Our results may help optimize existing procedures used in the practice of scientific research and provide guidance for the development of novel forms of scholarly communication.Engineering and Applied SciencesPsycholog

Evidence for a fractional quantum Hall state with anisotropic longitudinal transport

At high magnetic fields, where the Fermi level lies in the N=0 lowest Landau level (LL), a clean two-dimensional electron system (2DES) exhibits numerous incompressible liquid phases which display the fractional quantized Hall effect (FQHE) (Das Sarma and Pinczuk, 1997). These liquid phases do not break rotational symmetry, exhibiting resistivities which are isotropic in the plane. In contrast, at lower fields, when the Fermi level lies in the $N\ge2$ third and several higher LLs, the 2DES displays a distinctly different class of collective states. In particular, near half filling of these high LLs the 2DES exhibits a strongly anisotropic longitudinal resistance at low temperatures (Lilly et al., 1999; Du et al., 1999). These "stripe" phases, which do not exhibit the quantized Hall effect, resemble nematic liquid crystals, possessing broken rotational symmetry and orientational order (Koulakov et al., 1996; Fogler et al., 1996; Moessner and Chalker, 1996; Fradkin and Kivelson, 1999; Fradkin et al, 2010). Here we report a surprising new observation: An electronic configuration in the N=1 second LL whose resistivity tensor simultaneously displays a robust fractionally quantized Hall plateau and a strongly anisotropic longitudinal resistance resembling that of the stripe phases.Comment: Nature Physics, (2011

Anomalous structure in the single particle spectrum of the fractional quantum Hall effect

The two-dimensional electron system (2DES) is a unique laboratory for the physics of interacting particles. Application of a large magnetic field produces massively degenerate quantum levels known as Landau levels. Within a Landau level the kinetic energy of the electrons is suppressed, and electron-electron interactions set the only energy scale. Coulomb interactions break the degeneracy of the Landau levels and can cause the electrons to order into complex ground states. In the high energy single particle spectrum of this system, we observe salient and unexpected structure that extends across a wide range of Landau level filling fractions. The structure appears only when the 2DES is cooled to very low temperature, indicating that it arises from delicate ground state correlations. We characterize this structure by its evolution with changing electron density and applied magnetic field. We present two possible models for understanding these observations. Some of the energies of the features agree qualitatively with what might be expected for composite Fermions, which have proven effective for interpreting other experiments in this regime. At the same time, a simple model with electrons localized on ordered lattice sites also generates structure similar to those observed in the experiment. Neither of these models alone is sufficient to explain the observations across the entire range of densities measured. The discovery of this unexpected prominent structure in the single particle spectrum of an otherwise thoroughly studied system suggests that there exist core features of the 2DES that have yet to be understood.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figure

High Resolution Spectroscopy of Two-Dimensional Electron Systems

Spectroscopic methods involving the sudden injection or ejection of electrons in materials are a powerful probe of electronic structure and interactions. These techniques, such as photoemission and tunneling, yield measurements of the "single particle" density of states (SPDOS) spectrum of a system. The SPDOS is proportional to the probability of successfully injecting or ejecting an electron in these experiments. It is equal to the number of electronic states in the system able to accept an injected electron as a function of its energy and is among the most fundamental and directly calculable quantities in theories of highly interacting systems. However, the two-dimensional electron system (2DES), host to remarkable correlated electron states such as the fractional quantum Hall effect, has proven difficult to probe spectroscopically. Here we present an improved version of time domain capacitance spectroscopy (TDCS) that now allows us to measure the SPDOS of a 2DES with unprecedented fidelity and resolution. Using TDCS, we perform measurements of a cold 2DES, providing the first direct measurements of the single-particle exchange-enhanced spin gap and single particle lifetimes in the quantum Hall system, as well as the first observations of exchange splitting of Landau levels not at the Fermi surface. The measurements reveal the difficult to reach and beautiful structure present in this highly correlated system far from the Fermi surface.Comment: There are formatting and minor textual differences between this version and the published version in Nature (follow the DOI link below

Quantifying Selective Reporting and the Proteus Phenomenon for Multiple Datasets with Similar Bias

Meta-analyses play an important role in synthesizing evidence from diverse studies and datasets that address similar questions. A major obstacle for meta-analyses arises from biases in reporting. In particular, it is speculated that findings which do not achieve formal statistical significance are less likely reported than statistically significant findings. Moreover, the patterns of bias can be complex and may also depend on the timing of the research results and their relationship with previously published work. In this paper, we present an approach that is specifically designed to analyze large-scale datasets on published results. Such datasets are currently emerging in diverse research fields, particularly in molecular medicine. We use our approach to investigate a dataset on Alzheimer's disease (AD) that covers 1167 results from case-control studies on 102 genetic markers. We observe that initial studies on a genetic marker tend to be substantially more biased than subsequent replications. The chances for initial, statistically non-significant results to be published are estimated to be about 44% (95% CI, 32% to 63%) relative to statistically significant results, while statistically non-significant replications have almost the same chance to be published as statistically significant replications (84%; 95% CI, 66% to 107%). Early replications tend to be biased against initial findings, an observation previously termed Proteus phenomenon: The chances for non-significant studies going in the same direction as the initial result are estimated to be lower than the chances for non-significant studies opposing the initial result (73%; 95% CI, 55% to 96%). Such dynamic patters in bias are difficult to capture by conventional methods, where typically simple publication bias is assumed to operate. Our approach captures and corrects for complex dynamic patterns of bias, and thereby helps generating conclusions from published results that are more robust against the presence of different coexisting types of selective reporting

Exciton Condensation and Perfect Coulomb Drag

Coulomb drag is a process whereby the repulsive interactions between electrons in spatially separated conductors enable a current flowing in one of the conductors to induce a voltage drop in the other. If the second conductor is part of a closed circuit, a net current will flow in that circuit. The drag current is typically much smaller than the drive current owing to the heavy screening of the Coulomb interaction. There are, however, rare situations in which strong electronic correlations exist between the two conductors. For example, bilayer two-dimensional electron systems can support an exciton condensate consisting of electrons in one layer tightly bound to holes in the other. One thus expects "perfect" drag; a transport current of electrons driven through one layer is accompanied by an equal one of holes in the other. (The electrical currents are therefore opposite in sign.) Here we demonstrate just this effect, taking care to ensure that the electron-hole pairs dominate the transport and that tunneling of charge between the layers is negligible.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Beliefs about the Minds of Others Influence How We Process Sensory Information

Attending where others gaze is one of the most fundamental mechanisms of social cognition. The present study is the first to examine the impact of the attribution of mind to others on gaze-guided attentional orienting and its ERP correlates. Using a paradigm in which attention was guided to a location by the gaze of a centrally presented face, we manipulated participants' beliefs about the gazer: gaze behavior was believed to result either from operations of a mind or from a machine. In Experiment 1, beliefs were manipulated by cue identity (human or robot), while in Experiment 2, cue identity (robot) remained identical across conditions and beliefs were manipulated solely via instruction, which was irrelevant to the task. ERP results and behavior showed that participants' attention was guided by gaze only when gaze was believed to be controlled by a human. Specifically, the P1 was more enhanced for validly, relative to invalidly, cued targets only when participants believed the gaze behavior was the result of a mind, rather than of a machine. This shows that sensory gain control can be influenced by higher-order (task-irrelevant) beliefs about the observed scene. We propose a new interdisciplinary model of social attention, which integrates ideas from cognitive and social neuroscience, as well as philosophy in order to provide a framework for understanding a crucial aspect of how humans' beliefs about the observed scene influence sensory processing

Insulin autoantibodies as determined by competitive radiobinding assay are positively correlated with impaired beta-cell function — The Ulm-Frankfurt population study

Out of a random population of 4208 non-diabetic pupils without a family history of Type I diabetes 44 (1.05%) individuals had islet cell antibody (ICA) levels greater or equal to 5 Juvenile Diabetes Foundation (JDF) units. 39 of these ICA-positives could be repeatedly tested for circulating insulin autoantibodies (CIAA) using a competitive radiobinding assay. The results were compared with the insulin responses in the intravenous glucose tolerance tests (IVGTT) and with HLA types. Six pupils were positive for CIAA. All of them had complement-fixing ICA, and 5 of them were HLA-DR4 positive. Three of the 6 showed a first-phase insulin response below the first percentile of normal controls. Our data indicate that in population-based studies CIAA can be considered as a high risk marker for impaired beta-cell function in non-diabetic ICA-positive individuals

Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods-wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling-we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens

Fractional quantum Hall effect in a quantum point contact at filling fraction 5/2

Recent theories suggest that the excitations of certain quantum Hall states may have exotic braiding statistics which could be used to build topological quantum gates. This has prompted an experimental push to study such states using confined geometries where the statistics can be tested. We study the transport properties of quantum point contacts (QPCs) fabricated on a GaAs/AlGaAs two dimensional electron gas that exhibits well-developed fractional quantum Hall effect, including at bulk filling fraction 5/2. We find that a plateau at effective QPC filling factor 5/2 is identifiable in point contacts with lithographic widths of 1.2 microns and 0.8 microns, but not 0.5 microns. We study the temperature and dc-current-bias dependence of the 5/2 plateau in the QPC, as well as neighboring fractional and integer plateaus in the QPC while keeping the bulk at filling factor 3. Transport near QPC filling factor 5/2 is consistent with a picture of chiral Luttinger liquid edge-states with inter-edge tunneling, suggesting that an incompressible state at 5/2 forms in this confined geometry