Reconstructing transmission trees for communicable diseases using densely sampled genetic data.

Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of control measures. We considered disease outbreaks in a setting with dense genomic sampling, and formulated stochastic epidemic models to investigate person-to-person transmission, based on observed genomic and epidemiological data. We constructed models in which the genetic distance between sampled genotypes depends on the epidemiological relationship between the hosts. A data augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used to sample over the transmission trees, providing a posterior probability for any given transmission route. We investigated the predictive performance of our methodology using simulated data, demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity, particularly for rapidly mutating pathogens with low transmissibility. We then analyzed data collected during an outbreak of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a hospital, identifying probable transmission routes and estimating epidemiological parameters. Our approach overcomes limitations of previous methods, providing a framework with the flexibility to allow for unobserved infection times, multiple independent introductions of the pathogen, and within-host genetic diversity, as well as allowing forward simulation.Funding received from the following: The European Community [Mastering Hospital Antimicrobial Resistance (MOSAR) network contract LSHP-CT-2007-037941]. The National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under award number U54GM088558. The UK Medical Research Council (Unit Programme number U105260566). The UKCRC Translational Infection Research Initiative (MRC Grant number G1000803) and Public Health England. The Medical Research Council and Department for International Development (Grant number MR/K006924/1). The Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit is part of the Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme in SE Asia (Grant number 106698/Z/14/Z).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Institute of Mathematical Statistics via http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS89

Duration of exposure to multiple antibiotics is associated with increased risk of VRE bacteraemia: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: VRE bacteraemia has a high mortality and continues to defy control. Antibiotic risk factors for VRE bacteraemia have not been adequately defined. We aimed to determine the risk factors for VRE bacteraemia focusing on duration of antibiotic exposure. METHODS: A retrospective matched nested case-control study was conducted amongst hospitalized patients at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUH) from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012. Cases who developed a first episode of VRE bacteraemia were matched 1:1 to controls by length of stay, year, specialty and ward type. Independent risk factors for VRE bacteraemia were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Two hundred and thirty-five cases were compared with 220 controls. Duration of exposure to parenteral vancomycin, fluoroquinolones and meropenem was independently associated with VRE bacteraemia. Compared with patients with no exposure to vancomycin, those who received courses of 1-3 days, 4-7 days or >7 days had a stepwise increase in risk of VRE bacteraemia [conditional OR (cOR) 1.2 (95% CI 0.4-3.8), 3.8 (95% CI 1.2-11.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 1.9-22.8), respectively]. Other risk factors were: presence of a central venous catheter (CVC) [cOR 8.7 (95% CI 2.6-29.5)]; neutropenia [cOR 15.5 (95% CI 4.2-57.0)]; hypoalbuminaemia [cOR 8.5 (95% CI 2.4-29.5)]; malignancy [cOR 4.4 (95% CI 1.6-12.0)]; gastrointestinal disease [cOR 12.4 (95% CI 4.2-36.8)]; and hepatobiliary disease [cOR 7.9 (95% CI 2.1-29.9)]. CONCLUSIONS: Longer exposure to vancomycin, fluoroquinolones or meropenem was associated with VRE bacteraemia. Antimicrobial stewardship interventions targeting high-risk antibiotics are required to complement infection control procedures against VRE bacteraemia

Detection of weak gravitational lensing distortions of distant galaxies by cosmic dark matter at large scales

Most of the matter in the universe is not luminous and can be observed directly only through its gravitational effect. An emerging technique called weak gravitational lensing uses background galaxies to reveal the foreground dark matter distribution on large scales. Light from very distant galaxies travels to us through many intervening overdensities which gravitationally distort their apparent shapes. The observed ellipticity pattern of these distant galaxies thus encodes information about the large-scale structure of the universe, but attempts to measure this effect have been inconclusive due to systematic errors. We report the first detection of this ``cosmic shear'' using 145,000 background galaxies to reveal the dark matter distribution on angular scales up to half a degree in three separate lines of sight. The observed angular dependence of this effect is consistent with that predicted by two leading cosmological models, providing new and independent support for these models.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures: To appear in Nature. (This replacement fixes tex errors and typos.

Subpopulations of Staphylococcus aureus clonal complex 121 are associated with distinct clinical entities

We investigated the population structure of Staphylococcus aureus clonal complex CC121 by mutation discovery at 115 genetic housekeeping loci from each of 154 isolates, sampled on five continents between 1953 and 2009. In addition, we pyro-sequenced the genomes from ten representative isolates. The genome-wide SNPs that were ascertained revealed the evolutionary history of CC121, indicating at least six major clades (A to F) within the clonal complex and dating its most recent common ancestor to the pre-antibiotic era. The toxin gene complement of CC121 isolates was correlated with their SNP-based phylogeny. Moreover, we found a highly significant association of clinical phenotypes with phylogenetic affiliations, which is unusual for S. aureus. All isolates evidently sampled from superficial infections (including staphylococcal scalded skin syndrome, bullous impetigo, exfoliative dermatitis, conjunctivitis) clustered in clade F, which included the European epidemic fusidic-acid resistant impetigo clone (EEFIC). In comparison, isolates from deep-seated infections (abscess, furuncle, pyomyositis, necrotizing pneumonia) were disseminated in several clades, but not in clade F. Our results demonstrate that phylogenetic lineages with distinct clinical properties exist within an S. aureus clonal complex, and that SNPs serve as powerful discriminatory markers, able to identify these lineages. All CC121 genomes harboured a 41-kilobase prophage that was dissimilar to S. aureus phages sequenced previously. Community-associated MRSA and MSSA from Cambodia were extremely closely related, suggesting this MRSA arose in the region

Skeletal Site-Related Variation in Human Trabecular Bone Transcriptome and Signaling

BACKGROUND: The skeletal site-specific influence of multiple genes on bone morphology is recognised, but the question as to how these influences may be exerted at the molecular and cellular level has not been explored. METHODOLOGY: To address this question, we have compared global gene expression profiles of human trabecular bone from two different skeletal sites that experience vastly different degrees of mechanical loading, namely biopsies from iliac crest and lumbar spinal lamina. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the lumbar spine, compared to the iliac crest, the majority of the differentially expressed genes showed significantly increased levels of expression; 3406 transcripts were up- whilst 838 were down-regulated. Interestingly, all gene transcripts that have been recently demonstrated to be markers of osteocyte, as well as osteoblast and osteoclast-related genes, were markedly up-regulated in the spine. The transcriptome data is consistent with osteocyte numbers being almost identical at the two anatomical sites, but suggesting a relatively low osteocyte functional activity in the iliac crest. Similarly, osteoblast and osteoclast expression data suggested similar numbers of the cells, but presented with higher activity in the spine than iliac crest. This analysis has also led to the identification of expression of a number of transcripts, previously known and novel, which to our knowledge have never earlier been associated with bone growth and remodelling. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides molecular evidence explaining anatomical and micro-architectural site-related changes in bone cell function, which is predominantly attributable to alteration in cell transcriptional activity. A number of novel signaling molecules in critical pathways, which have been hitherto not known to be expressed in bone cells of mature vertebrates, were identified

The effects of short-term, progressive exercise training on disease activity in smouldering multiple myeloma and monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance:a single-arm pilot study

Background: High levels of physical activity are associated with reduced risk of the blood cancer multiple myeloma (MM). MM is preceded by the asymptomatic stages of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smouldering multiple myeloma (SMM) which are clinically managed by watchful waiting. A case study (N = 1) of a former elite athlete aged 44 years previously indicated that a multi-modal exercise programme reversed SMM disease activity. To build from this prior case study, the present pilot study firstly examined if short-term exercise training was feasible and safe for a group of MGUS and SMM patients, and secondly investigated the effects on MGUS/SMM disease activity. Methods: In this single-arm pilot study, N = 20 participants diagnosed with MGUS or SMM were allocated to receive a 16-week progressive exercise programme. Primary outcome measures were feasibility and safety. Secondary outcomes were pre- to post-exercise training changes to blood biomarkers of MGUS and SMM disease activity– monoclonal (M)-protein and free light chains (FLC)– plus cardiorespiratory and functional fitness, body composition, quality of life, blood immunophenotype, and blood biomarkers of inflammation. Results: Fifteen (3 MGUS and 12 SMM) participants completed the exercise programme. Adherence was 91 ± 11%. Compliance was 75 ± 25% overall, with a notable decline in compliance at intensities > 70% V̇O2PEAK. There were no serious adverse events. There were no changes to M-protein (0.0 ± 1.0 g/L, P =.903), involved FLC (+ 1.8 ± 16.8 mg/L, P =.839), or FLC difference (+ 0.2 ± 15.6 mg/L, P =.946) from pre- to post-exercise training. There were pre- to post-exercise training improvements to diastolic blood pressure (− 3 ± 5 mmHg, P =.033), sit-to-stand test performance (+ 5 ± 5 repetitions, P =.002), and energy/fatigue scores (+ 10 ± 15%, P =.026). Other secondary outcomes were unchanged. Conclusions: A 16-week progressive exercise programme was feasible and safe, but did not reverse MGUS/SMM disease activity, contrasting a prior case study showing that five years of exercise training reversed SMM in a 44-year-old former athlete. Longer exercise interventions should be explored in a group of MGUS/SMM patients, with measurements of disease biomarkers, along with rates of disease progression (i.e., MGUS/SMM to MM). Registration: https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN65527208 (14/05/2018)

Behaviour in therapeutic medical care: evidence from general practitioners in Austria

Aim: The present study examines monetary effects of general practioners’ behaviour in therapeutic medical care to identify sample characteristics that allow differentiating between the individual general practitioner and the basic population. Subjects and methods: Medical services, provided by 3,919 general practitioners in Austria, were operationalized by means of the dependent variable “costs per patient”. Statistical outliers were identified using Chebyshev’s inequality and categorized by investigating bivariate correlations between the dependent variable and the personal characteristics of each physician. Results: Variables that relate to the size of the customer base such as number of consultations (r = 0.385) and office days (r = 0.376), correlate positively with the costs for medical services. By analyzing the portfolio of the general practitioners, we found a correlation of 0.451 between this coefficient and the costs. Statistical outliers feature an average portfolio of 44.5 different services, compared to 30.45 among non-outliers. Laboratory services especially were identified as cost drivers (r = 0.408). Statistical outliers generate at least one laboratory parameter for 44.34% of their patients, opposed to 27.2% within the rest of the sample. Consequently outliers produce higher laboratory costs than their counterparts. Conclusion: We found some evidence that physicians have influence in the provision of their services. Considering entrepreneurial objectives, the extension of the portfolio can increase their profit. Our findings indicate supplier-induced demand for several groups of services. We assume that the effect is consolidated by the fee for service system and could be compensated by adequate reform

Twenty bone-mineral-density loci identified by large-scale meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links fieldBone mineral density (BMD) is a heritable complex trait used in the clinical diagnosis of osteoporosis and the assessment of fracture risk. We performed meta-analysis of five genome-wide association studies of femoral neck and lumbar spine BMD in 19,195 subjects of Northern European descent. We identified 20 BMD loci that reached genome-wide significance (GWS; P < 5 x 10(-8)), of which 13 map to regions not previously associated with this trait: 1p31.3 (GPR177), 2p21 (SPTBN1), 3p22 (CTNNB1), 4q21.1 (MEPE), 5q14 (MEF2C), 7p14 (STARD3NL), 7q21.3 (FLJ42280), 11p11.2 (LRP4, ARHGAP1, F2), 11p14.1 (DCDC5), 11p15 (SOX6), 16q24 (FOXL1), 17q21 (HDAC5) and 17q12 (CRHR1). The meta-analysis also confirmed at GWS level seven known BMD loci on 1p36 (ZBTB40), 6q25 (ESR1), 8q24 (TNFRSF11B), 11q13.4 (LRP5), 12q13 (SP7), 13q14 (TNFSF11) and 18q21 (TNFRSF11A). The many SNPs associated with BMD map to genes in signaling pathways with relevance to bone metabolism and highlight the complex genetic architecture that underlies osteoporosis and variation in BMD

The Cosmological Constant

This is a review of the physics and cosmology of the cosmological constant. Focusing on recent developments, I present a pedagogical overview of cosmology in the presence of a cosmological constant, observational constraints on its magnitude, and the physics of a small (and potentially nonzero) vacuum energy.Comment: 50 pages. Submitted to Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org/), December 199

The Pioneer Anomaly

Radio-metric Doppler tracking data received from the Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft from heliocentric distances of 20-70 AU has consistently indicated the presence of a small, anomalous, blue-shifted frequency drift uniformly changing with a rate of ~6 x 10^{-9} Hz/s. Ultimately, the drift was interpreted as a constant sunward deceleration of each particular spacecraft at the level of a_P = (8.74 +/- 1.33) x 10^{-10} m/s^2. This apparent violation of the Newton's gravitational inverse-square law has become known as the Pioneer anomaly; the nature of this anomaly remains unexplained. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge of the physical properties of the anomaly and the conditions that led to its detection and characterization. We review various mechanisms proposed to explain the anomaly and discuss the current state of efforts to determine its nature. A comprehensive new investigation of the anomalous behavior of the two Pioneers has begun recently. The new efforts rely on the much-extended set of radio-metric Doppler data for both spacecraft in conjunction with the newly available complete record of their telemetry files and a large archive of original project documentation. As the new study is yet to report its findings, this review provides the necessary background for the new results to appear in the near future. In particular, we provide a significant amount of information on the design, operations and behavior of the two Pioneers during their entire missions, including descriptions of various data formats and techniques used for their navigation and radio-science data analysis. As most of this information was recovered relatively recently, it was not used in the previous studies of the Pioneer anomaly, but it is critical for the new investigation.Comment: 165 pages, 40 figures, 16 tables; accepted for publication in Living Reviews in Relativit