The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the summer season (June to September). Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of this circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind stress curl, and upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed coupled ocean-atmosphere system variability timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon subseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet

Choosing Organic Pesticides over Synthetic Pesticides May Not Effectively Mitigate Environmental Risk in Soybeans

Background: Selection of pesticides with small ecological footprints is a key factor in developing sustainable agricultural systems. Policy guiding the selection of pesticides often emphasizes natural products and organic-certified pesticides to increase sustainability, because of the prevailing public opinion that natural products are uniformly safer, and thus more environmentally friendly, than synthetic chemicals. Methodology/Principal Findings: We report the results of a study examining the environmental impact of several new synthetic and certified organic insecticides under consideration as reduced-risk insecticides for soybean aphid (Aphis glycines) control, using established and novel methodologies to directly quantify pesticide impact in terms of biocontrol services. We found that in addition to reduced efficacy against aphids compared to novel synthetic insecticides, organic approved insecticides had a similar or even greater negative impact on several natural enemy species in lab studies, were more detrimental to biological control organisms in field experiments, and had higher Environmental Impact Quotients at field use rates. Conclusions/Significance: These data bring into caution the widely held assumption that organic pesticides are more environmentally benign than synthetic ones. All pesticides must be evaluated using an empirically-based risk assessment

Personalised profiling to identify clinically relevant changes in tremor due to multiple sclerosis

Background: There is growing interest in sensor-based assessment of upper limb tremor in multiple sclerosis and other movement disorders. However, previously such assessments have not been found to offer any improvement over conventional clinical observation in identifying clinically relevant changes in an individual's tremor symptoms, due to poor test-retest repeatability. Method: We hypothesised that this barrier could be overcome by constructing a tremor change metric that is customised to each individual's tremor characteristics, such that random variability can be distinguished from clinically relevant changes in symptoms. In a cohort of 24 people with tremor due to multiple sclerosis, the newly proposed metrics were compared against conventional clinical and sensor-based metrics. Each metric was evaluated based on Spearman rank correlation with two reference metrics extracted from the Fahn-Tolosa-Marin Tremor Rating Scale: a task-based measure of functional disability (FTMTRS B) and the subject's self-assessment of the impact of tremor on their activities of daily living (FTMTRS C). Results: Unlike the conventional sensor-based and clinical metrics, the newly proposed ’change in scale’ metrics presented statistically significant correlations with changes in self-assessed impact of tremor (max R2>0.5,p< 0.05 after correction for false discovery rate control). They also outperformed all other metrics in terms of correlations with changes in task-based functional performance (R2=0.25 vs. R2=0.15 for conventional clinical observation, both p< 0.05).Conclusions: The proposed metrics achieve an elusive goal of sensor-based tremor assessment: improving on conventional visual observation in terms of sensitivity to change. Further refinement and evaluation of the proposed techniques is required, but our core findings imply that the main barrier to translational impact for this application can be overcome. Sensor-based tremor assessments may improve personalised treatment selection and the efficiency of clinical trials for new treatments by enabling greater standardisation and sensitivity to clinically relevant changes in symptoms

Experimental forecasts of El Niño

Experimental forecasts of El Niño events occurring since 1970, made with a deterministic model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, indicate that El Niño is generally predictable one or two years ahead. A forecast for 1986 is also presented

Signatures of Indian ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation events in sea level variations in the Bay of Bengal

We investigate the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean during 1957-2008. Using tide-gauge and altimeter data, we show that IOD and ENSO leave characteristic signatures in the sea level anomalies (SLAs) in the Bay of Bengal. During a positive IOD event, negative SLAs are observed during April-December, with the SLAs decreasing continuously to a peak during September-November. During El Nino, negative SLAs are observed twice (April-December and November-July), with a relaxation between the two peaks. SLA signatures during negative IOD and La Nina events are much weaker. We use a linear, continuously stratified model of the Indian Ocean to simulate their sea level patterns of IOD and ENSO events. We then separate solutions into parts that correspond to specific processes: coastal alongshore winds, remote forcing from the equator via reflected Rossby waves, and direct forcing by interior winds within the bay. During pure IOD events, the SLAs are forced both from the equator and by direct wind forcing. During ENSO events, they are primarily equatorially forced, with only a minor contribution from direct wind forcing. Using a lead/lag covariance analysis between the Nino-3.4 SST index and Indian Ocean wind stress, we derive a composite wind field for a typical El Nino event: the resulting solution has two negative SLA peaks. The IOD and ENSO signatures are not evident off the west coast of India