Subgroup effects despite homogeneous heterogeneity test results

Background. Statistical tests of heterogeneity are very popular in meta-analyses, as heterogeneity might indicate subgroup effects. Lack of demonstrable statistical heterogeneity, however, might obscure clinical heterogeneity, meaning clinically relevant subgroup effects. Methods. A qualitative, visual method to explore the potential for subgroup effects was provided by a modification of the forest plot, i.e., adding a vertical axis indicating the proportion of a subgroup variable in the individual trials. Such a plot was used to assess the potential for clinically relevant subgroup effects and was illustrated by a clinical example on the effects of antibiotics in children with acute otitis media. Results. Statistical tests did not indicate heterogeneity in the meta-analysis on the effects of amoxicillin on acute otitis media (Q = 3.29, p = 0.51; I2 = 0%; T2 = 0). Nevertheless, in a modified forest plot, in which the individual trials were ordered by the proportion of children with bilateral otitis, a clear relation between bilaterality and treatment effects was observed (which was also found in an individual patient data meta-analysis of the included trials: p-value for interaction 0.021). Conclusions. A modification of the forest plot, by including an additional (vertical) axis indicating the proportion of a certain subgroup variable, is a qualitative, visual, and easy-to-interpret method to explore potential subgroup effects in studies included in meta-analyse

Abdominal Wound Dehiscence in Adults: Development and Validation of a Risk Model

Background: Several studies have been performed to identify risk factors for abdominal wound dehiscence. No risk model had yet been developed for the general surgical population. The objective of the present study was to identify independent risk factors for abdominal wound dehiscence and to develop a risk model to recognize high-risk patients. Identification of high-risk patients offers opportunities for intervention strategies. Methods: Medical registers from January 1985 to December 2005 were searched. Patients who had primarily undergone appendectomies or nonsurgical (e.g., urological) operations were excluded. Each patient with abdominal wound dehiscence was matched with three controls by systematic random sampling. Putative relevant patient-related, operation-related, and postoperative variables were evaluated in univariate analysis and subsequently entered in multivariate stepwise logistic regression models to delineate major independent predictors of abdominal wound dehiscence. A risk model was developed, which was validated in a population of patients who had undergone operation between January and December 2006. Results: A total of 363 cases and 1,089 controls were analyzed. Major independent risk factors were age, gender, chronic pulmonary disease, ascites, jaundice, anemia, emergency surgery, type of surgery, postoperative coughing, and wound infection. In the validation population, risk scores were significantly higher (P < 0.001) for patients with abdominal wound dehiscence (n = 19) compared to those without (n = 677). Resulting scores ranged from 0 to 8.5, and the risk for abdominal wound dehiscence over this range increased exponentially from 0.02% to 70.1%. Conclusions: The validated risk model shows high predictive value for abdominal wound dehiscence and may help to identify patients at increased risk

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.</p

Differences in the Population Structure of Invasive Streptococcus suis Strains Isolated from Pigs and from Humans in the Netherlands

Streptococcus suis serotype 2 is the main cause of zoonotic S. suis infection despite the fact that other serotypes are frequently isolated from diseased pigs. Studies comparing concurrent invasive human and pig isolates from a single geographical location are lacking. We compared the population structures of invasive S. suis strains isolated between 1986 and 2008 from human patients (N = 24) and from pigs with invasive disease (N = 124) in the Netherlands by serotyping and multi locus sequence typing (MLST). Fifty-six percent of pig isolates were of serotype 9 belonging to 15 clonal complexes (CCs) or singleton sequence types (ST). In contrast, all human isolates were of serotype 2 and belonged to two non-overlapping clonal complexes CC1 (58%) and CC20 (42%). The proportion of serotype 2 isolates among S. suis strains isolated from humans was significantly higher than among strains isolated from pigs (24/24 vs. 29/124; P<0.0001). This difference remained significant when only strains within CC1 and CC20 were considered (24/24 vs. 27/37,P = 0.004). The Simpson diversity index of the S. suis population isolated from humans (0.598) was smaller than of the population isolated from pigs (0.765, P = 0.05) indicating that the S. suis population isolated from infected pigs was more diverse than the S. suis population isolated from human patients. S. suis serotype 2 strains of CC20 were all negative in a PCR for detection of genes encoding extracellular protein factor (EF) variants. These data indicate that the polysaccharide capsule is an important correlate of human S. suis infection, irrespective of the ST and EF encoding gene type of S. suis strains

Efficacy of aerobic exercise and a prudent diet for improving selected lipids and lipoproteins in adults: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background Studies addressing the effects of aerobic exercise and a prudent diet on lipid and lipoprotein concentrations in adults have reached conflicting conclusions. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of aerobic exercise combined with a prudent diet on lipid and lipoprotein concentrations in adults. Methods Studies were located by searching nine electronic databases, cross-referencing, and expert review. Two independent reviewers selected studies that met the following criteria: (1) randomized controlled trials, (2) aerobic exercise combined with diet recommendations (saturated/trans fat intake less than 10% of total calories and cholesterol less than 300 mg/day and/or fiber intake ≥25 g/day in women and ≥35 grams per day in men), (3) intervention ≥4 weeks, (4) humans ≥18 years of age, (5) published studies, including dissertations and Master\u27s theses, (6) studies published in any language, (7) studies published between January 1, 1955 and May 1, 2009, (8) assessment of one or more of the following lipid and lipoprotein concentrations: total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), ratio of TC to HDL-C, non-HDL-C, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglycerides (TG). Two reviewers independently extracted all data. Random-effects models that account for heterogeneity and 95% confidence intervals were used to pool findings. Results Of the 1,401 citations reviewed, six studies representing 16 groups (8 intervention, 8 control) and up to 559 men and women (282 intervention, 277 control) met the criteria for analysis. Statistically significant intervention minus control reductions were found for TC (-15.5 mg/dl, 95% CI, -20.3 to -10.7), TC:HDL-C (-0.4 mg/dl, 95% CI, -0.7 to -0.2), LDL-C (-9.2 mg/dl, 95% CI, -12.7 to -5.8) and TG (-10.6 mg/dl, 95% CI, -17.2 to -4.0) but not HDL-C (-0.5 mg/dl, 95% CI, -4.0 to 3.1). Changes were equivalent to reductions of 7.5%, 6.6%, 7.2% and 18.2% respectively, for TC, TC:HDL-C, LDL-C and TG. Because of missing variance statistics, non-HDL-C was excluded. Conclusions Aerobic exercise combined with a prudent diet is highly efficacious for improving TC, TC:HDL-C, LDL-C and TG, but not HDL-C concentrations, in adults. However, additional studies are needed, including effectiveness studies using intention-to-treat analysis

An investigation of the phase locking index for measuring of interdependency of cortical source signals recorded in the EEG

The phase locking index (PLI) was introduced to quantify in a statistical sense the phase synchronization of two signals. It has been commonly used to process biosignals. In this article, we investigate the PLI for measuring the interdependency of cortical source signals (CSSs) recorded in the Electroencephalogram (EEG). To this end, we consider simple analytical models for the mapping of simulated CSSs into the EEG. For these models, the PLI is investigated analytically and through numerical simulations. An evaluation is made of the sensitivity of the PLI to the amount of crosstalk between the sources through biological tissues of the head. It is found that the PLI is a useful interdependency measure for CSSs, especially when the amount of crosstalk is small. Another common interdependency measure is the coherence. A direct comparison of both measures has not been made in the literature so far. We assess the performance of the PLI and coherence for estimation and detection purposes based on, respectively, a normalized variance and a novel statistical measure termed contrast. Based on these performance measures, it is found that the PLI is similar or better than the CM in most cases. This result is also confirmed through analysis of EEGs recorded from epileptic patients