Information, Multifaceted Forest Ownership and Timber Supply

Existing decision support systems (DSS) do not account for forest owner heterogeneity, nor do they explicitly model the reaction of forest owners to policy. Hence, current DSS are suitable for response analysis, but much less useful for policy impact assessment or forecasting. The current study presents a theoretical model of harvesting behavior which provides the basis for a simulation model, Expected Value Asymmetries (EVA), useful for analyzing how timber supply and forest characteristics are affected when forest owners differ as to responsiveness to information, risk aversion, and patience as regards postponement of harvesting revenues. The simulation results clearly indicate that the model is well adapted for considering forest owner heterogeneity when assessing the impact of policy on the inter-temporal development of forest resources and timber market conditions. Finally, it is outlined how EVA could integrate forest owner specific harvesting behavior in an augmented Decision Support System (DSS), thus addressing the inability of DSS operational at pan-European level to model the interaction between policy and forest management decisions.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

The opinions of some stakeholders on the European Union Timber Regulation (EUTR): an analysis of secondary sources

The EU Timber Regulation (EUTR) is the most recent effort by the European Union (EU) to curb imports of illegally sourced timber. The regulation raises important questions concerning the international timber trade. In order to successfully implement this regulation it is of paramount importance to classify the actors concerned, and examine how they regard it. The current study records and summarizes opinion statements of stakeholders as found in different online publications. Though the problem of illegal logging and its associated trade is acknowledged by all parties, there are concerns as to whether the EUTR is the proper instrument to address this issue. Whilst some stakeholders see the EUTR as advantageous for their businesses, others see it as an impediment. Law enforcement, lack of guidance, and bureaucracy were other issues raised. The trade-off between effective legislation and ease of trade was also highlighted. Transparent and consistent application of the EUTR, with clear guidelines for exerting due diligence, should diminish the degree of possible unwanted side-effects such as trade diversion and substitution of temperate timber for tropical timber.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

The Global Forest Trade Model - GFTM

A meaningful assessment of policy options within the forest-based bioeconomy presupposes the capability to model market implications. To this end, an economic forest-based sector model, the Global Forest Trade Model (GFTM), is being developed at the Forest Resources and Climate unit of the Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES). The GFTM is an equilibrium trade-based model for the forest sector with the aim of providing projections of production and trade of wood-based products and pellets for 48 countries/sub-regions of the world, with a focus on EU. This technical report describes the set-up of the model.The study outlines the theoretical framework, the programming of the model in MatLab, data collection, parameters used, and the calibration of the model. Presented test runs with GFTM indicates that the model behaves in a logically consistent way, all in all well in line what can be expected from economic theory. The next steps in the development process entail trying out linkages with a forest resource model and a dedicated energy model.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

The impact on global wood-product markets of increasing consumption of wood pellets within the European Union

The targets for renewable energy set by the European Union have resulted in a surge in consumption of wood pellets, and the demand is expected to further increase the next decade. We use economic modelling to assess the impact on global wood-based product markets of gradually increasing wood pellets consumption within the EU. Comparing a scenario wherein consumption is determined exclusively by market forces with one where EU consumption is set to double between 2015 and 2030, we characterize the deviation from the unregulated market equilibrium that would attain. Our results highlight the necessity of assessing market impacts over time, with a sufficient geographical disaggregation. An increased EU demand for wood pellets would, apart from increased EU production, results in increased imports. The main sources are projected to be Russia, Canada, and, particularly, the USA. The results indicate synergies and competition between wood-based products and wood pellets. In general sawmilling stand to gain from increased wood pellets' consumption, while the opposite holds for wood-based panels and most paper grades. Due to the feedstock mix used in production of wood pellets and wood-based products, effects vary over time and among different EU members, as well as between EU and other regions.JRC.D.1-Bio-econom

European Union Timber Regulation Impact on International Timber Markets

The trade of illegal timber, often from illegal logging, has severe environmental, social and economic consequences. The EU’s response to this problem came with the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan, with its specific goal to end illegal logging, thereby improving sustainability of forest resources. In March 2013, an additional step was taken by implementing the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR). The EUTR requires proof of timber’s origin and legality to ensure that no illegal timber is imported into the EU. To this end the EU intends to block imports of any wood or wood product which comes from unknown sources. Certification of sustainable forest management will help EU importers minimize risk, which is an essential part of their required due diligence system. Monitoring organizations are established to assist trade associations and businesses to construct comprehensive due diligence systems. National competent authorities are designated to follow the trade of the new FLEGT-licensed timber and timber products. In the first year of the EUTR there are positive impacts, of which the most important is awareness of the disastrous situation with illegal logging, driven by exports of illegal timber. Another positive development is tropical timber exporters documenting the legality of their wood exports. Yet another positive feature is establishment of due diligence systems by EU importers. However, there are considerable problems for ensuring legal trade; for example the lack of comprehensive documentation of origin and legality. Analysis of recent trends establishes changes in the European timber trade in terms of sourcing, substitution, diversion to less-demanding countries. Short-term forecasts of market trends and changes will enable further policy assessment to achieve the objectives of improved legality in international timber markets.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Force Feedback for Assembly of Aircraft Structures

Variability in composite manufacture and the limitations in positional accuracy of common industrial robots have hampered automation of assembly tasks within aircraft manufacturing. One way to handle geometry variations and robot compliancy is to use force control. Force control technology utilizes a sensor mounted on the robot to feedback force data to the controller system so instead of being position driven, i.e. programmed to achieve a certain position with the tool, the robot can be programmed to achieve a certain force. This paper presents an experimental case where a compliant rib is aligned to multiple surfaces using force feedback and an industrial robot system from ABB. Two types of ribs where used, one full size carbon fiber rib, and one smaller metal replica for evaluation purposes. The alignment sequence consisted of several iterative steps and a search procedure was implemented within the robot control system. The technology has the potential to lessen the need for dedicated tooling, reduce the need for traditional workspace calibration and can be used in several other applications, such as pin and socket type assemblies found in pylons or landing gear or 'part to part' assemblies such as leading edge ribs to spar

Health-related quality of life, utility, and productivity outcomes instruments: ease of completion by subjects with COPD

An important outcome of any clinical intervention is the change in the subject's own perceived state of health. This can be categorized as health-related quality of life (HRQL), utility (preference-based health state), and daily life performance. 174 Swedish subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (mean age 64.3 ± 12 years) completed five self-administered questionnaires: Short Form 36 (SF-36), St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D), Health States-COPD (HS-COPD), and Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire for COPD (WPAI-COPD). The subjects scored these outcomes instruments for ease of completion using a 5-point scale. The time taken to complete them was noted and the administrators' opinion of the subjects' comprehension of the questionnaires recorded using a 4-point scale. A score of 1–3 ("very easy" to "acceptable") was recorded by 92% of subjects for the SF-36, 90% for SGRQ, 80% for EQ-5D, 83% for WPAI-COPD, and 53% for HS-COPD. The HS-COPD was graded "very difficult" to complete by 21% of subjects compared with 3–5% of subjects for the other questionnaires. The mean time taken to complete all questionnaires was 39 minutes, and the large majority of subjects scored "good" for understanding by the administrator. Age correlated significantly with the degree of the subject's opinion of the ease of completion of five outcomes instruments, while the influence of gender, socio-economic status and disease severity was not statistically significant

Preoperative biomarkers related to inflammation may identify high-risk anastomoses in colorectal cancer surgery : explorative study

Anastomotic leakage is a major complication after colorectal surgery, presumed to correspond with a process of failed wound healing, involving inflammation. Circulating levels of inflammation-related biomarkers were investigated in preoperative samples from 41 patients with leakage, who had elective treatment with a primary anastomosis for non-disseminated colorectal cancer, matched to 41 complication-free controls. A total of 15 inflammation-related proteins were elevated before surgery in patients with rectal cancer with leakage, of which C-X-C motif chemokine 6 and C-C motif chemokine 11 remained significantly increased after controlling for multiplicity. As a corresponding expression pattern difference did not emerge when tissue adjacent to the anastomosis was evaluated with immunohistochemistry, findings may reflect a systemic rather than a local host response. While these findings require validation before implementation into surgical practice, they highlight the need for further translational investigations as a promising research area to help decrease leakage rates. Background Colorectal anastomotic leakage can be considered a process of failed wound healing, for which related biomarkers might be a promising research area to decrease leak rates. Methods Patients who had elective surgery with a primary anastomosis for non-metastatic colorectal cancer, at two university hospitals between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2015 were included. Patients with an anastomotic leak were identified and matched (1:1) to complication-free controls on the basis of sex, age, tumour stage, tumour location, and operating hospital. Preoperative blood samples were analysed by use of protein panels associated with systemic or enteric inflammation by proteomics, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Multivariable projection methods were used in the statistical analyses and adjusted for multiple comparisons to reduce false positivity. Rectal cancer tissue samples were evaluated with immunohistochemistry to determine local expression of biomarkers that differed significantly between cases and controls. Results Out of 726 patients undergoing resection, 41 patients with anastomotic leakage were matched to 41 controls. Patients with rectal cancer with leakage displayed significantly elevated serum levels of 15 proteins related to inflammation. After controlling for a false discovery rate, levels of C-X-C motif chemokine 6 (CXCL6) and C-C motif chemokine 11 (CCL11) remained significant. In patients with colonic cancer with leakage, levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were increased before surgery. Local expression of CXCL6 and CCL11, and their receptors, were similar in rectal tissues between cases and controls. Conclusion Patients with anastomotic leakage could have an upregulated inflammatory response before surgery, as expressed by elevated serological levels of CXCL6 and CCL11 for rectal cancer and hs-CRP levels in patients with colonic cancer respectively. Preoperative inflammation-related serum proteins were evaluated in a case-control study of 41 patients with anastomotic leakage matched 1:1 with 41 complication-free controls. The chemokines C-X-C motif chemokine 6 and C-C motif chemokine 11 were significantly increased before surgery in patients with rectal cancer and leakage, a finding requiring further validation.Peer reviewe

Sankey diagrams of woody biomass flows in the EU-28

Sankey diagrams of woody biomass flows in the European Union as a whole are now available for the years 2009 to 2015 on the European Commission’s Knowledge Centre for Bioeconomy web portal at: https://ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/publication/forestry-sankey. This technical brief provides definitions, data sources and methods applied to derive the estimates.JRC.D.1-Bio-econom