A Comprehensive Modeling Approach Towards Understanding and Prediction

Long-Term Goals: Our research combines state-of-the-art regional modeling of sea ice, ocean, atmosphere and ecosystem to provide a system approach to advance the knowledge and predictive capability of the diverse impacts of changing sea ice cover on the bio-physical marine environment of coastal Alaska and over the larger region of the western Arctic Ocean. The focus of this project on seasonally ice-free Alaskan coasts and shelves is in direct support of the ‘Coastal Effects of a Diminished-ice Arctic Ocean’ and littoral studies of interest to the U.S. Navy. Given the continued warming and summer sea ice cover decrease in the Arctic during the past decades, this research will have broader and long-term impacts by facilitating studies of the potential increased exploration of natural resources along the seasonally ice-free northern Alaskan coasts and shelves and of the use of northern sea routes from the Pacific Ocean to Europe. Such activities will change the strategic importance of the entire pan-Arctic region. The research will allow a better understanding and planning of current and future operational needs in support of the continued US commercial and tactical interests in the region.Award Number: N0001407WR2029

2008 Report for the project entitled: A Comprehensive Modeling Approach Towards Understanding and Prediction of the Alaskan Coastal System Response to Changes in an Ice-diminished Arctic

LONG-TERM GOALS: Our research combines state-of-the-art regional modeling of sea ice, ocean, atmosphere and ecosystem to provide a system approach to advance the knowledge and predictive capability of the diverse impacts of changing sea ice cover on the bio-physical marine environment of coastal Alaska and over the larger region of the western Arctic Ocean. The focus of this project on seasonally ice-free Alaskan coasts and shelves is in direct support of the ‘Coastal Effects of a Diminished-ice Arctic Ocean’ and littoral studies of interest to the U.S. Navy. Given the continued warming and summer sea ice cover decrease in the Arctic during the past decades, this research will have broader and long-term impacts by facilitating studies of the potential increased exploration of natural resources along the seasonally ice-free northern Alaskan coasts and shelves and of the use of northern sea routes from the Pacific Ocean to Europe. Such activities will change the strategic importance of the entire pan-Arctic region. The research will allow a better understanding and planning of current and future operational needs in support of the continued US commercial and tactical interests in the region.Award Number: N0001407WR2029

Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981&ndash;2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5&deg;C to 4&deg;C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the SSP3 at GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981&ndash;2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 at GWL4, approximately 2&thinsp;&times;&thinsp;106&thinsp;km2 of forests and croplands (respectively, 6% and 11%) and 1.5&thinsp;&times;&thinsp;106&thinsp;km2 of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17&thinsp;&times;&thinsp;106&thinsp;km2 of forests (49%), 6&thinsp;&times;&thinsp;106&thinsp;km2 of pastures (78%) and 12&thinsp;&times;&thinsp;106&thinsp;km2 of croplands (67%), being mid-latitudes the most affected. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.</p

Analysis of WRF extreme daily precipitation over Alaska using self-organizing maps

We analyze daily precipitation extremes from simulations of a polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulations cover 19 years and use the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) domain. We focus on Alaska because of its proximity to the Pacific and Arctic oceans; both provide large moisture fetch inland. Alaska\u27s topography also has important impacts on orographically forced precipitation. We use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand circulation characteristics conducive for extreme precipitation events. The SOM algorithm employs an artificial neural network that uses an unsupervised training process, which results in finding general patterns of circulation behavior. The SOM is trained with mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies. Widespread extreme events, defined as at least 25 grid points experiencing 99th percentile precipitation, are examined using SOMs. Widespread extreme days are mapped onto the SOM of MSLP anomalies, indicating circulation patterns. SOMs aid in determining high-frequency nodes, and hence, circulations are conducive to extremes. Multiple circulation patterns are responsible for extreme days, which are differentiated by where extreme events occur in Alaska. Additionally, several meteorological fields are composited for nodes accessed by extreme and nonextreme events to determine specific conditions necessary for a widespread extreme event. Individual and adjacent node composites produce more physically reasonable circulations as opposed to composites of all extremes, which include multiple synoptic regimes. Temporal evolution of extreme events is also traced through SOM space. Thus, this analysis lays the groundwork for diagnosing differences in atmospheric circulations and their associated widespread, extreme precipitation events

Present Temperature, Precipitation, and Rain‐on‐Snow Climate in Svalbard

The Svalbard Archipelago has undergone rapid warming in the recent decades leading to warmer and wetter winter conditions. This study relates the present (2013–2018) 2 m temperature, precipitation, and rain-on-snow (ROS) climate in Svalbard to different atmospheric circulation (AC) types utilizing the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME)-Arctic. We find that the 2 m median temperatures vary most across AC types in winter and spring and in summer they vary the least. In all seasons the 10th percentile 2 m temperatures are above 0°C with southwesterly AC types over Svalbard. In comparison, the relationship between AC type and precipitation varies more spatially, with most accumulated precipitation and highest median precipitation intensities with onshore flow over open water. Our results suggest that sea ice explains a large part of the local variability in both 2 m temperature and precipitation. In the studied period ROS is a frequent phenomenon up to 150 m above sea level (ASL) on land, with most events in the southwestern parts of the archipelago (57 cases during five winter seasons). ROS events in winter occur predominantly with AC types from the southerly sector or during a low-pressure center/trough passage. The southwesterly cyclonic AC type, with a low-pressure center west of Svalbard, is the most frequent AC type for ROS events. In addition to being the most frequent, the southwesterly AC has the largest spatial coverage of ROS.publishedVersio

Random walks on combs

We develop techniques to obtain rigorous bounds on the behaviour of random walks on combs. Using these bounds we calculate exactly the spectral dimension of random combs with infinite teeth at random positions or teeth with random but finite length. We also calculate exactly the spectral dimension of some fixed non-translationally invariant combs. We relate the spectral dimension to the critical exponent of the mass of the two-point function for random walks on random combs, and compute mean displacements as a function of walk duration. We prove that the mean first passage time is generally infinite for combs with anomalous spectral dimension.Comment: 42 pages, 4 figure

ウィスコンシン ダイガク マディソンコウ ガ ジッシ シテイル ナンキョク ムジン キショウ カンソク (AWS) ケイカク ノ 2011-2012 ネン カキ ノ カツドウ

ウィスコンシン大学マディソン校で推進している南極無人気象観測計画(Antarctic Automatic Weather Station(AWS)program)の32 年目の観測が,2011/2012年の南半球夏期に完了した.無人気象観測網を利用して南極の気象と気候の研究が行われている.今シーズンはロス島周辺域,ロス棚氷,西南極,東南極にわたる領域で活動した.基本的に観測点のデータはアルゴス衛星を中継して配信されるが,今年はロス島周辺域の多くの観測点で,マクマード基地を中継して"Freewave modem"を通して配信された.各無人気象観測点報告には,現在設置されている測器と動作状況が含まれる.また,無人気象観測計画の全体像を,野外活動の実施状況に沿って示す.During the 2011-2012 austral summer, the Antarctic Automatic Weather Station (AWS) program at the University of Wisconsin?Madison completed its 32nd year of observations. Ongoing studies utilizing the network include topics in Antarctic meteorology and climate studies. This field season consisted of work throughout the Ross Island area, the Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, and East Antarctica. Argos satellite transmissions are the primary method for relaying station data, but throughout this year, a number of stations in the Ross Island area have been converted to Freewave modems, with their data being relayed through McMurdo station. Each AWS station report contains information regarding the instrumentation currently installed and the work performed at each site. An overview of the AWS applications is included along with field work accomplished

An arctic hydrologic system in transition: Feedbacks and impacts on terrestrial, marine, and human life

The pace of change in the arctic system during recent decades has captured the world\u27s attention. Observations and model simulations both indicate that the arctic experiences an amplified response to climate forcing relative to that at lower latitudes. At the core of these changes is the arctic hydrologic system, which includes ice, gaseous vapor in the atmosphere, liquid water in soils and fluvial networks on land, and the freshwater content of the ocean. The changes in stores and fluxes of freshwater have a direct impact on biological systems, not only of the arctic region itself, but also well beyond its bounds. In this investigation, we used a heuristic, graphical approach to distill the system into its fundamental parts, documented the key relationships between those parts as best we know them, and identified the feedback loops within the system. The analysis illustrates relationships that are well understood, but also reveals others that are either unfamiliar, uncertain, or unexplored. The graphical approach was used to provide a visual assessment of the arctic hydrologic system in one possible future state in which the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free

Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Program operated by the University of Wisconsin-Madison during the 2012-2013 field season: Challenges and Successes

ウィスコンシン大学マディソン校で推進している南極無人気象観測計画（Antarctic Automatic Weather Station（AWS）program）の，2012-2013年のフィールド調査および結果の概要を報告する．今期はAWS 観測網の歴史上，特異なシーズンであった．ロス島地域が温暖であったことは氷上滑走路の利用に影響を及ぼし，いくつかの設営面での制約に直面した． 柔軟な計画により，限られた条件下でAWS サービルを最大化し，自動観測ネットワークへの要求に対応する最善の手段をとることができた．This report reviews 2012-2013 field season activities of the University of Wisconsin-Madison＇s Antarctic Automatic Weather Station (AWS) program, summarizes the science that these sites are supporting, and outlines the factors that impact the number of AWS sites serviced in any given field season. The 2012-2013 austral summer season was unusual in the AWS network history. Challenges encountered include, but are not limited to, warmer than normal conditions in the Ross Island area impacting airfield operations, changes to logistical procedures, and competition for shared resources. A flexible work plan provides the best means for taking on these challenges while maximizing AWS servicing efforts under restricted conditions and meeting the need for routine servicing that maintaining an autonomous observing network demands