Long-run marketing inferences from scanner data.

Good marketing decisions require managers' understanding of the nature of the market-response function relating performance measures such as sales and market share to variations in the marketing mix (product, price, distribution and communications efforts). Our paper focuses on the dynamic aspect of market-response functions, i.e. how current marketing actions affect current and future market response. While conventional econometrics has been the dominant methodology in empirical market-response analyses, time-series analysis offers unique opportunities for pushing the frontier in dynamic research. This paper examines the contributions an d the future outlook of time-series analysis in market-response modeling. We conclude first, that time series analysis has made a relatively limited overall contribution to the discipline, and investigate reasons why that has been the case. However, major advances in data (transactions-based databases and in modeling technology (long-term time-series modeling) create new opportunities for time-series techniques in marketing, in particular for the study of long-run marketing effectiveness. We discuss four major aspects of long -term time-series modeling, relate them to substantive marketing problems, and describe some early applications. Combining the new data with the new methods, we then present original empirical results on the long-term behavior of brand sales and category sales for four consumer products. We discuss the implications of our findings for future research in market response. Our observations lead us to identify three areas where additional research could enhance the diffusion of the identified time-series concepts in marketing.Data; Marketing;

Sales promotions and channel coordination

Consumer sales promotions are usually the result of the decisions of two marketing channel parties, the manufacturer and the retailer. In making these decisions, each party normally follows its own interest: i.e. maximizes its own profit. Unfortunately, this results in a suboptimal outcome for the channel as a whole. Independent profit maximization by channel parties leads to a lack of channel coordination with the implication of leaving money on the table. This may well contribute to the notoriously low profitability of sales promotions. This paper first shows analytically why the suboptimality occurs, and then presents an empirical demonstration, using a unique dataset from an Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) project; ECR is a movement in which parties work together to optimize the distribution channel). In this dataset, actual profit is only a small fraction of potential profit, implying that there is a large degree of suboptimality. It is important that (1) channel parties are aware of this suboptimality; and (2) that they have tools to deal with it. Solutions to the channel coordination problem should ensure that the goals of the individual channel parties are aligned with the goals of the channel as a whole. The paper proposes one particular agreement for this purpose, called proportional discount sharing. Application to the ECR data shows a win-win result for both the manufacturer and the retailer. Recognition of the channel coordination problem by the manufacturer and the retailer is the necessary starting point for agreeing on a way of solving it in a win-win fashion

Profiling the Responses of Soccer Substitutes: A Review of Current Literature.

Depending upon competition regulations, the laws of soccer allow between three and an unlimited number of substitutions that can be made on either a permanent or rolling basis. Substitutes are typically introduced to minimise/offset the effects of fatigue, alter tactics, replace players deemed as underperforming or injured, and/or give playing time to youth players or to squad members returning from injury. While the match-day practices of substitutes include participation in the pre-match warm-up, and sporadic periods of rewarm-up activity, it is currently unclear as to whether these pre-entry preparations facilitate optimal match performance thereafter. Acknowledging the contextual factors that possibly influence substitutes' performance, this review summarises the presently available literature on soccer substitutes, and makes recommendations for future research. Literature searching and screening yielded 13 studies, which have typically focused on characterising: (1) the patterns, including timing, of substitutes' introduction; (2) indices of match-performance; and (3) the emotional experiences of soccer substitutes. The majority of substitutions occur after the first-half has ended (i.e. at half-time or during the second-half), with introduced players exceeding the second-half physical performances of those who started the match. Observations of progressive improvements in running performance as playing time increases, and findings that substitutes mostly experience negative emotions, highlight the potential inadequacies of pre-match preparations, and present future research opportunities. Additional work is therefore needed to confirm these findings and to determine the efficacy of current preparation strategies, thereby providing opportunities to assess then address substitutes' pre-pitch entry preparations, on-field performance and emotional responses

Long-run marketing inferences from scanner data

Good marketing decisions require managers' understanding of the nature of the market-response function relating performance measures such as sales and market share to variations in the marketing mix (product, price, distribution and communications efforts). Our paper focuses on the dynamic aspect of market-response functions, i.e. how current marketing actions affect current and future market response. While conventional econometrics has been the dominant methodology in empirical market-response analyses, time-series analysis offers unique opportunities for pushing the frontier in dynamic research. This paper examines the contributions an d the future outlook of time-series analysis in market-response modeling. We conclude first, that time series analysis has made a relatively limited overall contribution to the discipline, and investigate reasons why that has been the case. However, major advances in data (transactions-based databases and in modeling technology (long-term time-series modeling) create new opportunities for time-series techniques in marketing, in particular for the study of long-run marketing effectiveness. We discuss four major aspects of long -term time-series modeling, relate them to substantive marketing problems, and describe some early applications. Combining the new data with the new methods, we then present original empirical results on the long-term behavior of brand sales and category sales for four consumer products. We discuss the implications of our findings for future research in market response. Our observations lead us to identify three areas where additional research could enhance the diffusion of the identified time-series concepts in marketing.status: publishe