Assessment of human influenza pandemic scenarios in Europe

The response to the emergence of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic was the result of a decade of pandemic planning, largely centred on the threat of an avian influenza A(H5N1) pandemic. Based on a literature review, this study aims to define a set of new pandemic scenarios that could be used in case of a future influenza pandemic. A total of 338 documents were identified using a searching strategy based on seven combinations of keywords. Eighty-three of these documents provided useful information on the 13 virus-related and health-system-related parameters initially considered for describing scenarios. Among these, four parameters were finally selected (clinical attack rate, case fatality rate, hospital admission rate, and intensive care admission rate) and four different levels of severity for each of them were set. The definition of six most likely scenarios results from the combination of four different levels of severity of the four final parameters (256 possible scenarios). Although it has some limitations, this approach allows for more flexible scenarios and hence it is far from the classic scenarios structure used for pandemic plans until 2009

Cardiosphere-derived cells suppress allogeneic lymphocytes by production of PGE2 acting via the EP4 receptor

derived cells (CDCs) are a cardiac progenitor cell population, which have been shown to possess cardiac regenerative properties and can improve heart function in a variety of cardiac diseases. Studies in large animal models have predominantly focussed on using autologous cells for safety, however allogeneic cell banks would allow for a practical, cost-effective and efficient use in a clinical setting. The aim of this work was to determine the immunomodulatory status of these cells using CDCs and lymphocytes from 5 dogs. CDCs expressed MHC I but not MHC II molecules and in mixed lymphocyte reactions demonstrated a lack of lymphocyte proliferation in response to MHC-mismatched CDCs. Furthermore, MHC-mismatched CDCs suppressed lymphocyte proliferation and activation in response to Concanavalin A. Transwell experiments demonstrated that this was predominantly due to direct cell-cell contact in addition to soluble mediators whereby CDCs produced high levels of PGE2 under inflammatory conditions. This led to down-regulation of CD25 expression on lymphocytes via the EP4 receptor. Blocking prostaglandin synthesis restored both, proliferation and activation (measured via CD25 expression) of stimulated lymphocytes. We demonstrated for the first time in a large animal model that CDCs inhibit proliferation in allo-reactive lymphocytes and have potent immunosuppressive activity mediated via PGE2

The misuses of sustainability: adult education, citizenship and the dead hand of neoliberalism

‘‘Sustainability’’ has a captivating but disingenuous simplicity: its meanings are complex, and have political and policy significance. Exploring the application of the term to adult education, this paper argues that a particular discourse of ‘‘sustainability’’ has become a common-sense, short-circuiting critical analysis and understanding of policy options. This ‘‘business discourse’’ of sustainability, strongly influenced by neoliberal ideas, encourages the presumption that educational programmes and movements which have died out were unsustainable, bound to fail, and even responsible – having failed to adapt – for their own demise. Potentially valuable experience is thus excluded from the educational policy canon. The author uses three cases from 20th-century adult education, namely (1) English liberal adult education; (2) ‘‘mass education’’, also known as community development, in the British colonies; and (3) UNESCO’s Fundamental Education, to challenge this presumption. He demonstrates for each case how a business discourse has implied their ‘‘unsustainability’’, but that the reality was more complex and involved external political intervention

Influenza Infectious Dose May Explain the High Mortality of the Second and Third Wave of 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic

BACKGROUND: It is widely accepted that the shift in case-fatality rate between waves during the 1918 influenza pandemic was due to a genetic change in the virus. In animal models, the infectious dose of influenza A virus was associated to the severity of disease which lead us to propose a new hypothesis. We propose that the increase in the case-fatality rate can be explained by the dynamics of disease and by a dose-dependent response mediated by the number of simultaneous contacts a susceptible person has with infectious ones. METHODS: We used a compartment model with seasonality, waning of immunity and a Holling type II function, to model simultaneous contacts between a susceptible person and infectious ones. In the model, infected persons having mild or severe illness depend both on the proportion of infectious persons in the population and on the level of simultaneous contacts between a susceptible and infectious persons. We further allowed for a high or low rate of waning immunity and volunteer isolation at different times of the epidemic. RESULTS: In all scenarios, case-fatality rate was low during the first wave (Spring) due to a decrease in the effective reproduction number. The case-fatality rate in the second wave (Autumn) depended on the ratio between the number of severe cases to the number of mild cases since, for each 1000 mild infections only 4 deaths occurred whereas for 1000 severe infections there were 20 deaths. A third wave (late Winter) was dependent on the rate for waning immunity or on the introduction of new susceptible persons in the community. If a group of persons became voluntarily isolated and returned to the community some days latter, new waves occurred. For a fixed number of infected persons the overall case-fatality rate decreased as the number of waves increased. This is explained by the lower proportion of infectious individuals in each wave that prevented an increase in the number of severe infections and thus of the case-fatality rate. CONCLUSION: The increase on the proportion of infectious persons as a proxy for the increase of the infectious dose a susceptible person is exposed, as the epidemic develops, can explain the shift in case-fatality rate between waves during the 1918 influenza pandemic.TD acknowledges the support of the Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnologia through grant PPCDT/AMB/55701/2004. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Impact of two interventions on timeliness and data quality of an electronic disease surveillance system in a resource limited setting (Peru): a prospective evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A timely detection of outbreaks through surveillance is needed in order to prevent future pandemics. However, current surveillance systems may not be prepared to accomplish this goal, especially in resource limited settings. As data quality and timeliness are attributes that improve outbreak detection capacity, we assessed the effect of two interventions on such attributes in Alerta, an electronic disease surveillance system in the Peruvian Navy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>40 Alerta reporting units (18 clinics and 22 ships) were included in a 12-week prospective evaluation project. After a short refresher course on the notification process, units were randomly assigned to either a phone, visit or control group. Phone group sites were called three hours before the biweekly reporting deadline if they had not sent their report. Visit group sites received supervision visits on weeks 4 & 8, but no phone calls. The control group sites were not contacted by phone or visited. Timeliness and data quality were assessed by calculating the percentage of reports sent on time and percentage of errors per total number of reports, respectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Timeliness improved in the phone group from 64.6% to 84% in clinics (+19.4 [95% CI, +10.3 to +28.6]; p < 0.001) and from 46.9% to 77.3% on ships (+30.4 [95% CI, +16.9 to +43.8]; p < 0.001). Visit and control groups did not show significant changes in timeliness. Error rates decreased in the visit group from 7.1% to 2% in clinics (-5.1 [95% CI, -8.7 to -1.4]; p = 0.007), but only from 7.3% to 6.7% on ships (-0.6 [95% CI, -2.4 to +1.1]; p = 0.445). Phone and control groups did not show significant improvement in data quality.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Regular phone reminders significantly improved timeliness of reports in clinics and ships, whereas supervision visits led to improved data quality only among clinics. Further investigations are needed to establish the cost-effectiveness and optimal use of each of these strategies.</p

Variants in ALDH1A2 reveal an anti-inflammatory role for retinoic acid and a new class of disease-modifying drugs in osteoarthritis

More than 40% of individuals will develop osteoarthritis (OA) during their lifetime, yet there are currently no licensed disease-modifying treatments for this disabling condition. Common polymorphic variants in ALDH1A2, which encodes the key enzyme for synthesis of all-trans retinoic acid (atRA), are associated with severe hand OA. Here, we sought to elucidate the biological significance of this association. We first confirmed that ALDH1A2 risk variants were associated with hand OA in the U.K. Biobank. Articular cartilage was acquired from 33 individuals with hand OA at the time of routine hand OA surgery. After stratification by genotype, RNA sequencing was performed. A reciprocal relationship between ALDH1A2 mRNA and inflammatory genes was observed. Articular cartilage injury up-regulated similar inflammatory genes by a process that we have previously termed mechanoflammation, which we believe is a primary driver of OA. Cartilage injury was also associated with a concomitant drop in atRA-inducible genes, which were used as a surrogate measure of cellular atRA concentration. Both responses to injury were reversed using talarozole, a retinoic acid metabolism blocking agent (RAMBA). Suppression of mechanoflammation by talarozole was mediated by a peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor gamma (PPARγ)–dependent mechanism. Talarozole was able to suppress mechano-inflammatory genes in articular cartilage in vivo 6 hours after mouse knee joint destabilization and reduced cartilage degradation and osteophyte formation after 26 days. These data show that boosting atRA suppresses mechanoflammation in the articular cartilage in vitro and in vivo and identifies RAMBAs as potential disease-modifying drugs for OA

Exploring health systems research and its influence on policy processes in low income countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The interface between research and policymaking in low-income countries is highly complex. The ability of health systems research to influence policy processes in such settings face numerous challenges. Successful analysis of the research-policy interface in these settings requires understanding of contextual factors as well as key influences on the interface. <it>Future Health Systems (FHS): Innovations for Equity </it>is a consortium conducting research in six countries in Asia and Africa. One of the three cross-country research themes of the consortium is analysis of the relationship between research (evidence) and policy making, especially their impact on the poor; insights gained in the initial conceptual phase of FHS activities can inform the global knowledge pool on this subject.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This paper provides a review of the research-policy interface in low-income countries and proposes a conceptual framework, followed by directions for empirical approaches. First, four developmental perspectives are considered: social institutional factors; virtual versus grassroots realities; science-society relationships; and construction of social arrangements. Building on these developmental perspectives three research-policy interface entry points are identified: 1. Recognizing policy as complex processes; 2. Engaging key stakeholders: decision-makers, providers, scientists, and communities; and 3. Enhancing accountability. A conceptual framework with three entry points to the research-policy interface – policy processes; stakeholder interests, values, and power; and accountability – within a context provided by four developmental perspectives is proposed. Potential empirical approaches to the research-policy interface are then reviewed. Finally, the value of such innovative empirical analysis is considered.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The purpose of this paper is to provide the background, conceptual framework, and key research directions for empirical activities focused on the research-policy interface in low income settings. The interface can be strengthened through such analysis leading to potential improvements in population health in low-income settings. Health system development cognizant of the myriad factors at the research-policy interface can form the basis for innovative future health systems.</p