Re-Examining Mortality Sources and Population Trends in a Declining Seabird: Using Bayesian Methods to Incorporate Existing Information and New Data

The population of flesh-footed shearwaters (Puffinus carneipes) breeding on Lord Howe Island was shown to be declining from the 1970’s to the early 2000’s. This was attributed to destruction of breeding habitat and fisheries mortality in the Australian Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery. Recent evidence suggests these impacts have ceased; presumably leading to population recovery. We used Bayesian statistical methods to combine data from the literature with more recent, but incomplete, field data to estimate population parameters and trends. This approach easily accounts for sources of variation and uncertainty while formally incorporating data and variation from different sources into the estimate. There is a 70% probability that the flesh-footed shearwater population on Lord Howe continued to decline during 2003–2009, and a number of possible reasons for this are suggested. During the breeding season, road-based mortality of adults on Lord Howe Island is likely to result in reduced adult survival and there is evidence that breeding success is negatively impacted by marine debris. Interactions with fisheries on flesh-footed shearwater winter grounds should be further investigated

Endometrial stromal cells of women with recurrent miscarriage fail to discriminate between high- and low-quality human embryos

Background The aetiology of recurrent miscarriage (RM) remains largely unexplained. Women with RM have a shorter time to pregnancy interval than normally fertile women, which may be due to more frequent implantation of non-viable embryos. We hypothesized that human endometrial stromal cells (H-EnSCs) of women with RM discriminate less effectively between high-and low-quality human embryos and migrate more readily towards trophoblast spheroids than H-EnSCs of normally fertile women. Methodology/Principal Findings Monolayers of decidualized H-EnSCs were generated from endometrial biopsies of 6 women with RM and 6 fertile controls. Cell-free migration zones were created and the effect of the presence of a high-quality (day 5 blastocyst, n = 13), a low-quality (day 5 blastocyst with three pronuclei or underdeveloped embryo, n = 12) or AC-1M88 trophoblast cell line spheroid on H-ESC migratory activity was analyzed after 18 hours. In the absence of a spheroid or embryo, migration of H-EnSCs from fertile or RM women was similar. In the presence of a low-quality embryo in the zone, the migration of H-EnSCs of control women was inhibited compared to the basal migration in the absence of an embryo (P<0.05) and compared to the migration in the presence of high-quality embryo (p<0.01). Interestingly, the migratory response H-EnSCs of women with RM did not differ between high- and low-quality embryos. Furthermore, in the presence of a spheroid their migration was enhanced compared to the H-EnSCs of controls (p<0.001). Conclusions H-EnSCs of fertile women discriminate between high- and low-quality embryos whereas H-EnSCs of women with RM fail to do so. H-EnSCs of RM women have a higher migratory response to trophoblast spheroids. Future studies will focus on the mechanisms by which low-quality embryos inhibit the migration of H-EnSCs and how this is deregulated in women with RM

Thinking outside the curve, part I: modeling birthweight distribution

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Greater epidemiologic understanding of the relationships among fetal-infant mortality and its prognostic factors, including birthweight, could have vast public health implications. A key step toward that understanding is a realistic and tractable framework for analyzing birthweight distributions and fetal-infant mortality. The present paper is the first of a two-part series that introduces such a framework.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose describing a birthweight distribution via a normal mixture model in which the number of components is determined from the data using a model selection criterion rather than fixed <it>a priori</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We address a number of methodological issues, including how the number of components selected depends on the sample size, how the choice of model selection criterion influences the results, and how estimates of mixture model parameters based on multiple samples from the same population can be combined to produce confidence intervals. As an illustration, we find that a 4-component normal mixture model reasonably describes the birthweight distribution for a population of white singleton infants born to heavily smoking mothers. We also compare this 4-component normal mixture model to two competitors from the existing literature: a contaminated normal model and a 2-component normal mixture model. In a second illustration, we discover that a 6-component normal mixture model may be more appropriate than a 4-component normal mixture model for a general population of black singletons.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The framework developed in this paper avoids assuming the existence of an interval of birthweights over which there are no compromised pregnancies and does not constrain birthweights within compromised pregnancies to be normally distributed. Thus, the present framework can reveal heterogeneity in birthweight that is undetectable via a contaminated normal model or a 2-component normal mixture model.</p

Centile charts for birthweight for gestational age for Scottish singleton births

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Centile charts of birthweight for gestational age are used to identify low birthweight babies. The charts currently used in Scotland are based on data from the 1970s and require updating given changes in birthweight and in the measurement of gestational age since then.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Routinely collected data of 100,133 singleton births occurring in Scotland from 1998–2003 were used to construct new centile charts using the LMS method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Centile charts for birthweight for sex and parity groupings were constructed for singleton birth and compared to existing charts used in Scottish hospitals.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Mean birthweight has been shown to have increased over recent decades. The differences shown between the new and currently used centiles confirm the need for more up-to-date centiles for birthweight for gestational age.</p

Characterisation of Clostridium difficile Hospital Ward–Based Transmission Using Extensive Epidemiological Data and Molecular Typing

A population-based study in Oxfordshire (UK) hospitals by Sarah Walker and colleagues finds that in an endemic setting with good infection control, ward-based contact cannot account for most new cases of Clostridium difficile infection

Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) to assess cognitive function in infants in rural Africa

Cortical mapping of cognitive function during infancy is poorly understood in low-income countries due to the lack of transportable neuroimaging methods. We have successfully piloted functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) as a neuroimaging tool in rural Gambia. Four-to-eight month old infants watched videos of Gambian adults perform social movements, while haemodynamic responses were recorded using fNIRS. We found distinct regions of the posterior superior temporal and inferior frontal cortex that evidenced either visual-social activation or vocally selective activation (vocal > non-vocal). The patterns of selective cortical activation in Gambian infants replicated those observed within similar aged infants in the UK. These are the first reported data on the measurement of localized functional brain activity in young infants in Africa and demonstrate the potential that fNIRS offers for field-based neuroimaging research of cognitive function in resource-poor rural communities

Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) to assess cognitive function in infants in rural Africa

Cortical mapping of cognitive function during infancy is poorly understood in low-income countries due to the lack of transportable neuroimaging methods. We have successfully piloted functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) as a neuroimaging tool in rural Gambia. Four-to-eight month old infants watched videos of Gambian adults perform social movements, while haemodynamic responses were recorded using fNIRS. We found distinct regions of the posterior superior temporal and inferior frontal cortex that evidenced either visual-social activation or vocally selective activation (vocal > non-vocal). The patterns of selective cortical activation in Gambian infants replicated those observed within similar aged infants in the UK. These are the first reported data on the measurement of localized functional brain activity in young infants in Africa and demonstrate the potential that fNIRS offers for field-based neuroimaging research of cognitive function in resource-poor rural communities

Association between proton pump inhibitor therapy and clostridium difficile infection: a contemporary systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract Introduction Emerging epidemiological evidence suggests that proton pump inhibitor (PPI) acid-suppression therapy is associated with an increased risk of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Methods Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, and Scopus were searched from 1990 to January 2012 for analytical studies that reported an adjusted effect estimate of the association between PPI use and CDI. We performed random-effect meta-analyses. We used the GRADE framework to interpret the findings. Results We identified 47 eligible citations (37 case-control and 14 cohort studies) with corresponding 51 effect estimates. The pooled OR was 1.65, 95% CI (1.47, 1.85), I2 = 89.9%, with evidence of publication bias suggested by a contour funnel plot. A novel regression based method was used to adjust for publication bias and resulted in an adjusted pooled OR of 1.51 (95% CI, 1.26–1.83). In a speculative analysis that assumes that this association is based on causality, and based on published baseline CDI incidence, the risk of CDI would be very low in the general population taking PPIs with an estimated NNH of 3925 at 1 year. Conclusions In this rigorously conducted systemic review and meta-analysis, we found very low quality evidence (GRADE class) for an association between PPI use and CDI that does not support a cause-effect relationship

Comparison of two methods based on cross-sectional data for correcting corpus uterine cancer incidence and probabilities

BACKGROUND: Two methods are presented for obtaining hysterectomy prevalence corrected estimates of invasive cancer incidence rates and probabilities of the corpus uterine. METHODS: The first method involves cross-sectional hysterectomy data from the Utah Hospital Discharge Data Base and mortality data applied to life-table methods. The second involves hysterectomy prevalence estimates obtained directly from the Utah Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey. RESULTS: Hysterectomy prevalence estimates based on the first method are lower than those obtained from the second method through age 74, but higher in the remaining ages. Correction for hysterectomy prevalence is greatest among women ages 75–79. In this age group, the uncorrected rate is 125 (per 100,000) and the corrected rate based on the life-table method is 223 using 1995–97 data, 243 using 1992–94 data, and 228 from the survey method. The uncorrected lifetime probability of developing corpus uterine cancer is 2.6%; the corrected probability from the life-table method using 1995–97 data is 4.2%, using 1992–94 data is 4.5%; and based on prevalence data from the survey method is 4.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Both methods provide reasonable hysterectomy prevalence estimates for correcting corpus uterine cancer rates and probabilities. Because of declining trends in hysterectomy in recent decades, corrected estimates from the life-table method are less pronounced than those based on the survey method. These methods may be useful for obtaining corrected uterine cancer rates and probabilities in areas of the world that do not have sufficient years of hysterectomy data to directly compute prevalence