Age groups and spread of influenza: implications for vaccination strategy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The unpredictable nature of the potentially devastating impact of 2009 pH1N1 influenza pandemic highlights the need for pandemic preparedness planning, where modeling studies could be most useful for simulations of possible future scenarios.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A compartmental model with pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic influenza infections is proposed which incorporates age groups as well as intervention measures such as age-specific vaccination, in order to study spread of influenza in a community.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We derive the basic reproduction number and other effective reproduction numbers under various intervention measures. For illustration, we make use of the Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) mortality data and vaccination data of the very young (age 0-2) and the very old (age >64) during 2004-2005 Taiwan winter influenza season to fit our model and to compute the relevant reproduction numbers. The reproduction number for this winter flu season is estimated to be slightly above one (~1.0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Comparatively large errors in fitting the P&I mortality data of the elderly (>64) were observed shortly after winter school closings in January, which may indicate the impact of younger, more active age groups transmitting influenza to other age groups outside of the school settings; in particular, to the elderly in the households. Pre-symptomatic infections seemed to have little effect on the model fit, while asymptomatic infection by asymptomatic infectives has a more pronounced impact on the model fit for the elderly mortality, perhaps indicating a larger role in disease transmission by asymptomatic infection. Simulations indicate that the impact of vaccination on the disease incidence might not be fully revealed in the change (or the lack thereof) in the effective reproduction number with interventions, but could still be substantial. The estimated per contact transmission probability for susceptible elderly is significantly higher than that of any other age group, perhaps highlighting the vulnerability of the elderly due to close contacts with their caretakers from other age groups. The relative impact of targeting the very young and the very old for vaccination was weakened by their relative inactivity, thus giving evidence of the lack of impact of vaccinating these two groups on the overall transmissibility of the disease in the community. This further underscores the need for morbidity-based strategy to prevent elderly mortality.</p

The Main Belt Comets and ice in the Solar System

We review the evidence for buried ice in the asteroid belt; specifically the questions around the so-called Main Belt Comets (MBCs). We summarise the evidence for water throughout the Solar System, and describe the various methods for detecting it, including remote sensing from ultraviolet to radio wavelengths. We review progress in the first decade of study of MBCs, including observations, modelling of ice survival, and discussion on their origins. We then look at which methods will likely be most effective for further progress, including the key challenge of direct detection of (escaping) water in these bodies

Excess healthcare burden during 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Taiwan: implications for post-pandemic preparedness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is speculated that the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus might fall into a seasonal pattern during the current post-pandemic period with more severe clinical presentation for high-risk groups identified during the 2009 pandemic. Hence the extent of likely excess healthcare needs during this period must be fully considered. We will make use of the historical healthcare record in Taiwan during and after the 1918 influenza pandemic to ascertain the scope of potential excess healthcare burden during the post-pandemic period.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To establish the healthcare needs after the initial wave in 1918, the yearly healthcare records (hospitalizations, outpatients, etc.) in Taiwan during 1918-1920 are compared with the corresponding data from the adjacent "baseline" years of 1916, 1917, 1921, and 1922 to estimate the excess healthcare burden during the initial outbreak in 1918 and in the years immediately after.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 1918 the number of public hospital outpatients exceeded the yearly average of the baseline years by 20.11% (95% CI: 16.43, 25.90), and the number of hospitalizations exceeded the corresponding yearly average of the baseline years by 12.20% (10.59, 14.38), while the excess number of patients treated by the public medics was statistically significant at 32.21% (28.48, 39.82) more than the yearly average of the baseline years. For 1920, only the excess number of hospitalizations was statistically significant at 19.83% (95% CI: 17.21, 23.38) more than the yearly average of the baseline years.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Considerable extra burden with significant loss of lives was reported in 1918 by both the public medics system and the public hospitals. In comparison, only a substantial number of excess hospitalizations in the public hospitals was reported in 1920, indicating that the population was relatively unprepared for the first wave in 1918 and did not fully utilize the public hospitals. Moreover, comparatively low mortality was reported by the public hospitals and the public medics during the second wave in 1920 even though significantly more patients were hospitalized, suggesting that there had been substantially less fatal illnesses among the hospitalized patients during the second wave. Our results provide viable parameters for assessing healthcare needs for post-pandemic preparedness.</p

Photonic Analogue of Two-dimensional Topological Insulators and Helical One-Way Edge Transport in Bi-Anisotropic Metamaterials

Recent progress in understanding the topological properties of condensed matter has led to the discovery of time-reversal invariant topological insulators. Because of limitations imposed by nature, topologically non-trivial electronic order seems to be uncommon except in small-band-gap semiconductors with strong spin-orbit interactions. In this Article we show that artificial electromagnetic structures, known as metamaterials, provide an attractive platform for designing photonic analogues of topological insulators. We demonstrate that a judicious choice of the metamaterial parameters can create photonic phases that support a pair of helical edge states, and that these edge states enable one-way photonic transport that is robust against disorder.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figure

Robotic Wireless Sensor Networks

In this chapter, we present a literature survey of an emerging, cutting-edge, and multi-disciplinary field of research at the intersection of Robotics and Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) which we refer to as Robotic Wireless Sensor Networks (RWSN). We define a RWSN as an autonomous networked multi-robot system that aims to achieve certain sensing goals while meeting and maintaining certain communication performance requirements, through cooperative control, learning and adaptation. While both of the component areas, i.e., Robotics and WSN, are very well-known and well-explored, there exist a whole set of new opportunities and research directions at the intersection of these two fields which are relatively or even completely unexplored. One such example would be the use of a set of robotic routers to set up a temporary communication path between a sender and a receiver that uses the controlled mobility to the advantage of packet routing. We find that there exist only a limited number of articles to be directly categorized as RWSN related works whereas there exist a range of articles in the robotics and the WSN literature that are also relevant to this new field of research. To connect the dots, we first identify the core problems and research trends related to RWSN such as connectivity, localization, routing, and robust flow of information. Next, we classify the existing research on RWSN as well as the relevant state-of-the-arts from robotics and WSN community according to the problems and trends identified in the first step. Lastly, we analyze what is missing in the existing literature, and identify topics that require more research attention in the future

Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza: Entry Pathways into North America via Bird Migration

Given the possibility of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza arriving in North America and monitoring programs that have been established to detect and track it, we review intercontinental movements of birds. We divided 157 bird species showing regular intercontinental movements into four groups based on patterns of movement—one of these groups (breed Holarctic, winter Eurasia) fits well with the design of the monitoring programs (i.e., western Alaska), but the other groups have quite different movement patterns, which would suggest the importance of H5N1 monitoring along the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf coasts of North America

Are mice good models for human neuromuscular disease? Comparing muscle excursions in walking between mice and humans

The mouse is one of the most widely used animal models to study neuromuscular diseases and test new therapeutic strategies. However, findings from successful pre-clinical studies using mouse models frequently fail to translate to humans due to various factors. Differences in muscle function between the two species could be crucial but often have been overlooked. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare muscle excursions in walking between mice and humans

S100A6 (Calcyclin) is a prostate basal cell marker absent in prostate cancer and its precursors

S100A6 (Calcyclin) is a calcium-binding protein that has been implicated in a variety of biological functions as well as tumorigenesis. The aim of our study was to investigate the involvement of S100A6 during prostate cancer development and progression. Using immunohistochemistry, the expression of S100A6 was examined in benign (n ¼ 66), premalignant (n ¼ 10), malignant (n ¼ 66) and metastatic prostate (n ¼ 5) tissues arranged in a tissue-microarray or whole sections as well as in prostate cancer cell lines. The S100A6 immunostaining pattern in tissues was compared with that of cytokeratin 5 (a basal cell marker) and 18 (a benign luminal cell marker). In all cases of benign epithelium, intense S100A6 expression was seen in the basal cell layer with absent staining in luminal cells. In all cases of prostatic adenocarcinoma (matched), metastatic lesions and 3/10 high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia lesions, an absence of S100A6 was seen. Western blotting and RT–PCR analysis of cell lines showed S100A6 expression to be absent in LNCaP, LNCaP-LN3 and LNCaP-Pro5 but present in Du145, PC3, PC-3M and PC-3M-LN4. LNCaP cells treated with 5- Azacytidine, caused re-expression of S100A6 mRNA. Sequencing of bisulphite modified DNA showed CpG methylation within the S100A6 promoter region and exon 1 of LNCaP, LNCaP-LN3 and LNCaP-Pro5 cell lines but not in Du145 cells. Our data suggest that loss of S100A6 protein expression is common in prostate cancer development and may occur at an early stage. The mechanism of loss of expression may involve hypermethylation of CpG sites. The finding of intense S100A6 expression in the basal cells of benign glands but loss of expression in cancer could be useful as a novel diagnostic marker for prostate cancer

Obesity and renal cell cancer – a quantitative review

Obesity has been associated with an increased risk of renal cell cancer among women, while the evidence for men is considered weaker. We conducted a quantitative summary analysis to evaluate the existing evidence that obesity increases the risk of renal cell cancer both among men and women. We identified all studies examining body weight in relation to kidney cancer, available in MEDLINE from 1966 to 1998. The quantitative summary analysis was limited to studies assessing obesity as body mass index (BMI, kg m−2), or equivalent. The risk estimates and the confidence intervals were extracted from the individual studies, and a mixed effect weighted regression model was used. We identified 22 unique studies on each sex, and the quantitative analysis included 14 studies on men and women, respectively. The summary relative risk estimate was 1.07 (95% CI 1.05–1.09) per unit of increase in BMI (corresponding to 3 kg body weight increase for a subject of average height). We found no evidence of effect modification by sex. Our quantitative summary shows that increased BMI is equally strongly associated with an increased risk of renal cell cancer among men and women. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaignhttp://www.bjcancer.co