The inter-observer agreement of examining pre-school children with acute cough: a nested study

BACKGROUND: The presence of clinical signs have implications for diagnosis, prognosis and treatment. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the inter-observer agreement of clinical signs in pre-school children presenting to primary care. METHODS: A nested study comparing two clinical assessments within a prospective cohort of 256 pre-school children with acute cough recruited from eight general practices in Leicestershire, UK. We examined agreement (using kappa statistics) between unstandardised and standardised clinical assessments of tachypnoea, chest signs and fever. RESULTS: Kappa values were poor or fair for all clinical signs (range 0.12 to 0.39) with chest signs the most reliable. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care clinicians should be aware that clinical signs may be unreliable when making diagnosis, prognosis and treatment decisions in pre-school children with cough. Future research should aim to further our understanding of how best to identify abnormal clinical signs

Party finance reform as constitutional engineering? The effectiveness and unintended consequences of party finance reform in France and Britain

In both Britain and France, party funding was traditionally characterized by a laissez faire approach and a conspicuous lack of regulation. In France, this was tantamount to a 'legislative vacuum'. In the last two decades, however, both countries have sought to fundamentally reform their political finance regulation regimes. This prompted, in Britain, the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, and in France a bout of 'legislative incontinence' — profoundly transforming the political finance regime between 1988 and 1995. This article seeks to explore and compare the impacts of the reforms in each country in a bid to explain the unintended consequences of the alternative paths taken and the effectiveness of the new party finance regime in each country. It finds that constitutional engineering through party finance reform is a singularly inexact science, largely due to the imperfect nature of information, the limited predictability of cause and effect, and the constraining influence of non-party actors, such as the Constitutional Council in France, and the Electoral Commission in Britain

No Evidence of Association between HIV-1 and Malaria in Populations with Low HIV-1 Prevalence

The geographic overlap between HIV-1 and malaria has generated much interest in their potential interactions. A variety of studies have evidenced a complex HIV-malaria interaction within individuals and populations that may have dramatic effects, but the causes and implications of this co-infection at the population level are still unclear. In a previous publication, we showed that the prevalence of malaria caused by the parasite Plasmodium falciparum is associated with HIV infection in eastern sub-Saharan Africa. To complement our knowledge of the HIV-malaria co-infection, the objective of this work was to assess the relationship between malaria and HIV prevalence in the western region of sub-Saharan Africa.Population-based cross-sectional data were obtained from the HIV/AIDS Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Liberia and Cameroon, and the malaria atlas project. Using generalized linear mixed models, we assessed the relationship between HIV-1 and Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) adjusting for important socio-economic and biological cofactors. We found no evidence that individuals living in areas with stable malaria transmission (PfPR>0.46) have higher odds of being HIV-positive than individuals who live in areas with PfPR≤0.46 in western sub-Saharan Africa (estimated odds ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval 0.86-1.50). In contrast, the results suggested that PfPR was associated with being infected with HIV in Cameroon (estimated odds ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.23-2.00).Contrary to our previous research on eastern sub-Saharan Africa, this study did not identify an association between PfPR and infection with HIV in western sub-Saharan Africa, which suggests that malaria might not play an important role in the spread of HIV in populations where the HIV prevalence is low. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the epidemiologic effect of co-infection and the relevant factors involved in this relationship for the implementation of effective control strategies

A mathematical modelling study of an athlete's sprint time when towing a weighted sled

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12283-013-0114-2.This study used a mathematical model to examine the effects of the sled, the running surface, and the athlete on sprint time when towing a weighted sled. Simulations showed that ratio scaling is an appropriate method of normalising the weight of the sled for athletes of different body size. The relationship between sprint time and the weight of the sled was almost linear, as long as the sled was not excessively heavy. The athlete’s sprint time and rate of increase in sprint time were greater on running surfaces with a greater coefficient of friction, and on any given running surface an athlete with a greater power-to-weight ratio had a lower rate of increase in sprint time. The angle of the tow cord did not have a substantial effect on an athlete’s sprint time. This greater understanding should help coaches set the training intensity experienced by an athlete when performing a sled-towing exercise

Forty years studying British politics : the decline of Anglo-America

The still present belief some 40 years ago that British politics was both exceptional and superior has been replaced by more theoretically sophisticated analyses based on a wider and more rigorously deployed range of research techniques, although historical analysis appropriately remains important. The American influence on the study of British politics has declined, but the European Union dimension has not been fully integrated. The study of interest groups has been in some respects a fading paradigm, but important questions related to democratic health have still to be addressed. Public administration has been supplanted by public policy, but economic policy remains under-studied. A key challenge for the future is the study of the management of expectations

Prospective strategies to delay the evolution of anti-malarial drug resistance: weighing the uncertainty

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The evolution of drug resistance in malaria parasites highlights a need to identify and evaluate strategies that could extend the useful therapeutic life of anti-malarial drugs. Such strategies are deployed to best effect before resistance has emerged, under conditions of great uncertainty.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Here, the emergence and spread of resistance was modelled using a hybrid framework to evaluate prospective strategies, estimate the time to drug failure, and weigh uncertainty. The waiting time to appearance was estimated as the product of low mutation rates, drug pressure, and parasite population sizes during treatment. Stochastic persistence and the waiting time to establishment were simulated as an evolving branching process. The subsequent spread of resistance was simulated in simple epidemiological models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using this framework, the waiting time to the failure of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) for malaria was estimated, and a policy of multiple first-line therapies (MFTs) was evaluated. The models quantify the effects of reducing drug pressure in delaying appearance, reducing the chances of establishment, and slowing spread. By using two first-line therapies in a population, it is possible to reduce drug pressure while still treating the full complement of cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>At a global scale, because of uncertainty about the time to the emergence of ACT resistance, there was a strong case for MFTs to guard against early failure. Our study recommends developing operationally feasible strategies for implementing MFTs, such as distributing different ACTs at the clinic and for home-based care, or formulating different ACTs for children and adults.</p

The science of clinical practice: disease diagnosis or patient prognosis? Evidence about "what is likely to happen" should shape clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis is the traditional basis for decision-making in clinical practice. Evidence is often lacking about future benefits and harms of these decisions for patients diagnosed with and without disease. We propose that a model of clinical practice focused on patient prognosis and predicting the likelihood of future outcomes may be more useful. DISCUSSION: Disease diagnosis can provide crucial information for clinical decisions that influence outcome in serious acute illness. However, the central role of diagnosis in clinical practice is challenged by evidence that it does not always benefit patients and that factors other than disease are important in determining patient outcome. The concept of disease as a dichotomous 'yes' or 'no' is challenged by the frequent use of diagnostic indicators with continuous distributions, such as blood sugar, which are better understood as contributing information about the probability of a patient's future outcome. Moreover, many illnesses, such as chronic fatigue, cannot usefully be labelled from a disease-diagnosis perspective. In such cases, a prognostic model provides an alternative framework for clinical practice that extends beyond disease and diagnosis and incorporates a wide range of information to predict future patient outcomes and to guide decisions to improve them. Such information embraces non-disease factors and genetic and other biomarkers which influence outcome. SUMMARY: Patient prognosis can provide the framework for modern clinical practice to integrate information from the expanding biological, social, and clinical database for more effective and efficient care

Designer nanocarriers for navigating the systemic delivery of oncolytic viruses

Nanotechnology is paving the way for new carrier systems designed to overcome the greatest challenges of oncolytic virotherapy; systemic administration and subsequent implications of immune responses and specific cell binding and entry. Systemic administration of oncolytic agents is vital for disseminated neoplasms, however transition of nanoparticles (NP) to virotherapy has yielded modest results. Their success relies on how they navigate the merry-go-round of often-contradictory phases of NP delivery: circulatory longevity, tissue permeation and cellular interaction, with many studies postulating design features optimal for each phase. This review discusses the optimal design of NPs for the transport of oncolytic viruses within these phases, to determine whether improved virotherapeutic efficacy lies in the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics characteristics of the NP–oncolytic viruses complexes rather than manipulation of the virus and targeting ligands

Neurocognitive Dysfunction in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Association with Antiphospholipid Antibodies, Disease Activity and Chronic Damage

Introduction: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is characterized by frequent neuropsychiatric involvement, which includes cognitive impairment (CI). We aimed at assessing CI in a cohort of Italian SLE patients by using a wide range of neurocognitive tests specifically designed to evaluate the fronto-subcortical dysfunction. Furthermore, we aimed at testing whether CI in SLE is associated with serum autoantibodies, disease activity and chronic damage. Methods: Fifty-eight consecutive patients were enrolled. Study protocol included data collection, evaluation of serum level

Developmental differences in holistic interference of facial part recognition.

Research has shown that adults' recognition of a facial part can be disrupted if the part is learnt without a face context but tested in a whole face. This has been interpreted as the holistic interference effect. The present study investigated whether children of 6- and 9-10-year-olds would show a similar effect. Participants were asked to judge whether a probe part was the same as or different from a test part whereby the part was presented either in isolation or in a whole face. The results showed that while all the groups were susceptible to a holistic interference, the youngest group was most severely affected. Contrary to the view that piecemeal processing precedes holistic processing in the cognitive development, our findings demonstrate that holistic processing is already present at 6 years of age. It is the ability to inhibit the influence of holistic information on piecemeal processing that seems to require a longer period of development into at an older and adult age