Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling

A poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks in response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing has been diagnosed in climate model simulations1, 2. Explanations of this effect have focused on atmospheric dynamics3, 4, 5, 6, 7. However, in contrast to storm tracks in other regions, the North Atlantic storm track responds by strengthening and extending farther east, in particular on its southern flank8. These adjustments are associated with an intensification and extension of the eddy-driven jet towards western Europe9 and are expected to have considerable societal impacts related to a rise in storminess in Europe10, 11, 12. Here, we apply a regression analysis to an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations to show that the coupling between ocean and atmosphere shapes the distinct storm-track response to greenhouse-gas forcing in the North Atlantic region. In the ensemble of simulations we analyse, at least half of the differences between the storm-track responses of different models are associated with uncertainties in ocean circulation changes. We compare the fully coupled simulations with both the associated slab model simulations and an ocean-forced experiment with one climate model to establish causality. We conclude that uncertainties in the response of the North Atlantic storm track to anthropogenic emissions could be reduced through tighter constraints on the future ocean circulation

Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models

We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the atmosphere and, somewhat unexpectedly, of the adopted ocean model seem to be critical in determining the agreement with the reanalyses. The GCMs ensemble is biased with respect to the reanalyses but is comparable to the best 5 GCMs. This study suggests serious caveats with respect to the ability of most of the presently available GCMs in representing the statistics of the global scale atmospheric dynamics of the present climate and, a fortiori, in the perspective of modelling climate change.Comment: 39 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

Lifshitz-like space-time from intersecting branes in string/M theory

We construct 1/4 BPS, threshold F-D$p$ bound states (with $0\leq p \leq 5$) of type II string theories by applying S- and T-dualities to the D1-D5 system of type IIB string theory. These are different from the known 1/2 BPS, non-threshold F-D$p$ bound states. The near horizon limits of these solutions yield Lifshitz-like space-times with varying dynamical critical exponent $z=2(5-p)/(4-p)$, for $p\neq 4$, along with the hyperscaling violation exponent $\theta = p - (p-2)/(4-p)$, showing how Lifshitz-like space-time can be obtained from string theory. The dilatons are in general non-constant (except for $p=1$). We discuss the holographic RG flows and the phase structures of these solutions. For $p=4$, we do not get a Lifshitz-like space-time, but the near horizon limit in this case leads to an AdS$_2$ space.Comment: 20 pages, no figure, v2: proper identification of hyperscaling violation exponent has been made, abstract and the text has been changed accordingly, note added, v3: minor changes, refs added, version to appear in JHE

Microbiome profiling by Illumina sequencing of combinatorial sequence-tagged PCR products

We developed a low-cost, high-throughput microbiome profiling method that uses combinatorial sequence tags attached to PCR primers that amplify the rRNA V6 region. Amplified PCR products are sequenced using an Illumina paired-end protocol to generate millions of overlapping reads. Combinatorial sequence tagging can be used to examine hundreds of samples with far fewer primers than is required when sequence tags are incorporated at only a single end. The number of reads generated permitted saturating or near-saturating analysis of samples of the vaginal microbiome. The large number of reads al- lowed an in-depth analysis of errors, and we found that PCR-induced errors composed the vast majority of non-organism derived species variants, an ob- servation that has significant implications for sequence clustering of similar high-throughput data. We show that the short reads are sufficient to assign organisms to the genus or species level in most cases. We suggest that this method will be useful for the deep sequencing of any short nucleotide region that is taxonomically informative; these include the V3, V5 regions of the bac- terial 16S rRNA genes and the eukaryotic V9 region that is gaining popularity for sampling protist diversity.Comment: 28 pages, 13 figure

The Western English Channel contains a persistent microbial seed bank

Robust seasonal dynamics in microbial community composition have previously been observed in the English Channel L4 marine observatory. These could be explained either by seasonal changes in the taxa present at the L4 site, or by the continuous modulation of abundance of taxa within a persistent microbial community. To test these competing hypotheses, deep sequencing of 16S rRNA from one randomly selected time point to a depth of 10 729 927 reads was compared with an existing taxonomic survey data covering 6 years. When compared against the 6-year survey of 72 shallow sequenced time points, the deep sequenced time point maintained 95.4% of the combined shallow OTUs. Additionally, on average, 99.75%±0.06 (mean±s.d.) of the operational taxonomic units found in each shallow sequenced sample were also found in the single deep sequenced sample. This suggests that the vast majority of taxa identified in this ecosystem are always present, but just in different proportions that are predictable. Thus observed changes in community composition are actually variations in the relative abundance of taxa, not, as was previously believed, demonstrating extinction and recolonization of taxa in the ecosystem through time

Dengue Deaths in Puerto Rico: Lessons Learned from the 2007 Epidemic

Dengue is a major public health problem in the tropics and subtropics; an estimated 50 million cases occur annually and 40 percent of the world's population lives in areas with dengue virus (DENV) transmission. Dengue has a wide range of clinical presentations from an undifferentiated acute febrile illness, classic dengue fever, to severe dengue (i.e., dengue hemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome). About 5% of patients develop severe dengue, which is more common with second or subsequent infections. No vaccines are available to prevent dengue, and there are no specific antiviral treatments for patients with dengue. However, early recognition of shock and intensive supportive therapy can reduce risk of death from ∼10% to less than 1% among severe dengue cases. Reviewing dengue deaths is one means to identify issues in clinical management. These findings can be used to develop healthcare provider education to minimize dengue morbidity and mortality

Genome landscapes and bacteriophage codon usage

Across all kingdoms of biological life, protein-coding genes exhibit unequal usage of synonmous codons. Although alternative theories abound, translational selection has been accepted as an important mechanism that shapes the patterns of codon usage in prokaryotes and simple eukaryotes. Here we analyze patterns of codon usage across 74 diverse bacteriophages that infect E. coli, P. aeruginosa and L. lactis as their primary host. We introduce the concept of a `genome landscape,' which helps reveal non-trivial, long-range patterns in codon usage across a genome. We develop a series of randomization tests that allow us to interrogate the significance of one aspect of codon usage, such a GC content, while controlling for another aspect, such as adaptation to host-preferred codons. We find that 33 phage genomes exhibit highly non-random patterns in their GC3-content, use of host-preferred codons, or both. We show that the head and tail proteins of these phages exhibit significant bias towards host-preferred codons, relative to the non-structural phage proteins. Our results support the hypothesis of translational selection on viral genes for host-preferred codons, over a broad range of bacteriophages.Comment: 9 Color Figures, 5 Tables, 53 Reference

Leptomeningeal disease in oligodendroglial tumors: a population-based study

In this population-based study, we determined the frequency and clinical characteristics of leptomeningeal disease (LMD) developing in the context of oligodendroglial tumors (oligodendrogliomas and oligoastrocytomas). LMD occurred in only 3.9% (8/204) of oligodendroglial tumors and in patients with more recurrences [mean 2.88 vs. 1.27 in LMD and non-LMD, respectively (p = 0.001)]. In contrast to LMD from systemic solid tumors, the median survival following the diagnosis of LMD in oligodendroglial tumors was surprisingly long at 22 months (95% CI 11–33 months). Treatment with oral chemotherapy seemed as effective as more aggressive treatments (e.g. repeat RT or intrathecal chemotherapy) in these patients