Making structured decisions for reintroduced populations in the face of uncertainty

Structured decision‐making (SDM) has become popular in natural resource management but has been underused in reintroduction programs. We illustrate how conservation managers can use SDM to guide management decisions after initial reintroduction, when data are still limited and uncertainty around vital rates estimates is high. In 2013, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), an endangered New Zealand forest bird, was reintroduced to Bushy Park (BP), a managed conservation reserve. High post‐release mortality in females led to the population remaining small after 2 years, raising the question of whether more females should be released. We built a model to evaluate three management alternatives, including no further translocation and translocations of 15 additional females (from the only possible source population) in either 2015 or 2016. The fundamental objectives identified were to maximize the number and persistence of female hihi in BP, minimize the impact on the source population, and minimize costs. Our decision analysis incorporated uncertainties in parameter estimation, model selection, and demographic stochasticity. It produced distributions of final scores for each management alternative based on population projections for both the BP population and source population, and objective weights assigned by stakeholders. Although the distributions of final scores overlapped greatly, the “no translocation” alternative was largely stochastically dominant over other management options, that is, it was clearly the best choice in most projections and the choice was ambiguous in the remaining projections. The decision was also unaffected by variation in stakeholder values. Although the underlying modeling was complex, the output provided a simple visualization of outcomes that allowed the recovery group to make an informed decision (no further translocation) that fully considered the uncertainties

Effect of supplementary feeding on reproductive success of hihi (stitchbird, Notiomystis cincta) at a mature forest reintroduction site

Supplementary feeding has proven to be a successful conservation tool for many species, including New Zealand’s hihi (stitchbird, Notiomystis cincta). Previous research has shown supplementary feeding to substantially increase hihi reproductive success at regenerating forest sites, but suggested that it would have reduced benefit in mature forest habitat. Here we report the first direct test of the effect of supplementary feeding on hihi reproductive success in mature forest, using data from the recently reintroduced population at Maungatautari Ecological Island. Eight feeder-using females and nine non-feeder-using females were monitored during the 2012/13 breeding season at Maungatautari to determine how feeder use affected reproductive success (nest success, number of first-clutch fledglings per female and total number of fledglings per female). Feeder-using females fledged 3.7 times as many fledglings as non-feeder-using females in their first-clutch attempts (95% CI 1.6–8.8), and 1.8 times as many fledglings in total (95% CI 1.0–3.5). No feeder-using female experienced nest failure, whereas 7 of the 16 nest attempts of non-feeder-using females failed to fledge any young. The results suggest that, counter to expectations, supplementary feeder use has a significant impact on reproductive success in mature forest habitat. At least for Maungatautari, providing supplementary food in mature forest habitat appears to greatly reduce the probability of hihi nest failure, and increases the number of young a female can fledge

Behaviour in the hand predicts male natal dispersal distances in an establishing reintroduced hihi (Notiomystis cincta) population

Natal dispersal is a complex behaviour influenced by multiple factors that are often sex-specific and density-dependent. Reintroduced populations are typically low in density in the initial years of establishment; hence, understanding natal dispersal patterns in this context is a critical component of reintroduction biology. Natal dispersal is a key behaviour that influences both the probability of recruitment, and simultaneously dictates the spatial configuration of the reintroduced population as it establishes. Here, we examine natal dispersal in a reintroduced population of an endangered New Zealand forest passerine, the hihi, Notiomystis cincta, in the first 3 years after reintroduction to a large, mature forest reserve. We examined (1) differences between the sexes, and (2) the relationship between temperament and natal dispersal distances (NDD) in locally bred hihi over this time period. We found NDD varied widely in both sexes, with mean NDD significantly higher in males than females. There was a sex-specific effect of temperament, with males that distress-called during handling dispersing further than those that did not. Our results show that while clusters of individuals have established across the reserve due to conspecific attraction, there is movement between these clusters, primarily a consequence of dispersal of males of a distinct temperament. Continuing to monitor natal dispersal patterns as populations establish will provide further insights into the role of dispersal in shaping establishment patterns in reintroduced populations

Young Children’s Prosocial Behavior Protects Against Academic Risk in Neighborhoods with Low Socio-Economic Status

Children raised in neighborhoods with low socioeconomic status (SES) are at risk for low academic achievement. Identifying factors that help children from disadvantaged neighborhoods thrive is critical for reducing inequalities. We investigated whether children’s prosocial behavior buffers concurrent and subsequent academic risk in disadvantaged neighborhoods in Bradford, UK. Diverse children (N = 1,175) were followed until age seven, with measurements taken at four times. We used governmental indices of neighborhood‐level SES, teacher observations of prosocial behaviors, and direct assessments of academic achievement. Neighborhood SES was positively associated with academic achievement among children with low levels of prosocial behavior, but not among children with high levels of prosocial behavior. Prosocial behavior may mitigate academic risk across early childhood

High-Resolution Patterned Cellular Constructs by Droplet-Based 3D Printing.

Bioprinting is an emerging technique for the fabrication of living tissues that allows cells to be arranged in predetermined three-dimensional (3D) architectures. However, to date, there are limited examples of bioprinted constructs containing multiple cell types patterned at high-resolution. Here we present a low-cost process that employs 3D printing of aqueous droplets containing mammalian cells to produce robust, patterned constructs in oil, which were reproducibly transferred to culture medium. Human embryonic kidney (HEK) cells and ovine mesenchymal stem cells (oMSCs) were printed at tissue-relevant densities (10(7) cells mL(-1)) and a high droplet resolution of 1 nL. High-resolution 3D geometries were printed with features of ≤200 μm; these included an arborised cell junction, a diagonal-plane junction and an osteochondral interface. The printed cells showed high viability (90% on average) and HEK cells within the printed structures were shown to proliferate under culture conditions. Significantly, a five-week tissue engineering study demonstrated that printed oMSCs could be differentiated down the chondrogenic lineage to generate cartilage-like structures containing type II collagen

A new accuracy measure based on bounded relative error for time series forecasting

Many accuracy measures have been proposed in the past for time series forecasting comparisons. However, many of these measures suffer from one or more issues such as poor resistance to outliers and scale dependence. In this paper, while summarising commonly used accuracy measures, a special review is made on the symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, a new accuracy measure called the Unscaled Mean Bounded Relative Absolute Error (UMBRAE), which combines the best features of various alternative measures, is proposed to address the common issues of existing measures. A comparative evaluation on the proposed and related measures has been made with both synthetic and real-world data. The results indicate that the proposed measure, with user selectable benchmark, performs as well as or better than other measures on selected criteria. Though it has been commonly accepted that there is no single best accuracy measure, we suggest that UMBRAE could be a good choice to evaluate forecasting methods, especially for cases where measures based on geometric mean of relative errors, such as the geometric mean relative absolute error, are preferred

Genetic variation in the HLA region is associated with susceptibility to herpes zoster.

Herpes zoster, commonly referred to as shingles, is caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV). VZV initially manifests as chicken pox, most commonly in childhood, can remain asymptomatically latent in nerve tissues for many years and often re-emerges as shingles. Although reactivation may be related to immune suppression, aging and female sex, most inter-individual variability in re-emergence risk has not been explained to date. We performed a genome-wide association analyses in 22,981 participants (2280 shingles cases) from the electronic Medical Records and Genomics Network. Using Cox survival and logistic regression, we identified a genomic region in the combined and European ancestry groups that has an age of onset effect reaching genome-wide significance (P>1.0 × 10(-8)). This region tags the non-coding gene HCP5 (HLA Complex P5) in the major histocompatibility complex. This gene is an endogenous retrovirus and likely influences viral activity through regulatory functions. Variants in this genetic region are known to be associated with delay in development of AIDS in people infected by HIV. Our study provides further suggestion that this region may have a critical role in viral suppression and could potentially harbor a clinically actionable variant for the shingles vaccine

Risk factors for presentation to hospital with severe anaemia in Tanzanian children: a case-control study.

In malaria endemic areas anaemia is a usually silent condition that nevertheless places a considerable burden on health services. Cases of severe anaemia often require hospitalization and blood transfusions. The objective of this study was to assess risk factors for admission with anaemia to facilitate the design of anaemia control programmes. We conducted a prospective case-control study of children aged 2-59 months admitted to a district hospital in southern Tanzania. There were 216 cases of severe anaemia [packed cell volume (PCV) < 25%] and 234 age-matched controls (PCV > or = 25%). Most cases [55.6% (n = 120)] were < 1 year of age. Anaemia was significantly associated with the educational level of parents, type of accommodation, health-seeking behaviour, the child's nutritional status and recent and current medical history. Of these, the single most important factor was Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia [OR 4.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.9-6.5, P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis showed that increased recent health expenditure [OR 2.2 (95% CI 1.3-3.9), P = 0.005], malnutrition [OR 2.4 (95%CI 1.3-4.3), P < 0.001], living > 10 km from the hospital [OR 3.0 (95% CI 1.9-4.9), P < 0.001], a history of previous blood transfusion [OR 3.8 (95% CI 1.7-9.1), P < 0.001] and P. falciparum parasitaemia [OR 9.5 (95% CI 4.3-21.3), P < 0.001] were independently related to risk of being admitted with anaemia. These findings are considered in terms of the pathophysiological pathway leading to anaemia. The concentration of anaemia in infants and problems of access to health services and adequate case management underline the need for targeted preventive strategies for anaemia control