Complex Derivatives

The intrinsic complexity of the financial derivatives market has emerged as both an incentive to engage in it, and a key source of its inherent instability. Regulators now faced with the challenge of taming this beast may find inspiration in the budding science of complex systems. When financial derivatives were cast in 2002 as latent 'weapons of mass destruction', one might have expected the world at large to sit up and listen — particularly in the wake of subsequent events that led to the financial crisis of 2008. Instead, the derivatives market continues to grow in size and complexity (Fig. 1), spawning a new generation of financial innovations, and raising concerns about its potential impact on the economy as a whole. A derivative instrument is a financial contract between two parties, in which the value of the payoff is derived from the value of another financial instrument or asset, called the underlying entity. In some cases, this contract acts as a kind of insurance: in a credit default swap, for example, a lender might buy protection from a third party to insure against the default of the borrower. However, unlike conventional insurance, in which a person necessarily owns the house she wants to insure, derivatives can be negotiated on any underlying entity — meaning anyone could take out insurance on the house in question. Speculation therefore emerges as another reason to trade in derivatives. By engaging in a speculative derivatives market, players can potentially amplify their gains, which is arguably the most plausible explanation for the proliferation of derivatives in recent years. Needless to say, losses are also amplified. Unlike bets on, say, dice — where the chances of the outcome are not affected by the bet itself — the more market players bet on the default of a country, the more likely the default becomes. Eventually the game becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as in a bank run, where if each party believes that others will withdraw their money from the bank, it pays each to do so. More perversely, in some cases parties have incentives (and opportunities) to precipitate these events, by spreading rumours or by manipulating the prices on which the derivatives are contingent — a situation seen most recently in the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) affair. Proponents of derivatives have long argued that these instruments help to stabilize markets by distributing risk, but it has been shown recently that in many situations risk sharing can also lead to instabilities

Process evaluation of the Bristol girls dance project

Background: The Bristol Girls Dance Project was a cluster randomised controlled trial that aimed to increase objectively measured moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels of Year 7 (age 11–12) girls through a dance-based after-school intervention. The intervention was delivered in nine schools and consisted of up to forty after-school dance sessions. This paper reports on the main findings from the detailed process evaluation that was conducted. / Methods: Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from intervention schools. Dose and fidelity were reported by dance instructors at every session. Intervention dose was defined as attending two thirds of sessions and was measured by attendance registers. Fidelity to the intervention manual was reported by dance instructors. On four randomly-selected occasions, participants reported their perceived level of exertion and enjoyment. Reasons for non-attendance were self-reported at the end of the intervention. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with all dance instructors who delivered the intervention (n = 10) and school contacts (n = 9) in intervention schools. A focus group was conducted with girls who participated in each intervention school (n = 9). / Results: The study did not affect girls’ MVPA. An average of 31.7 girls participated in each school, with 9.1 per school receiving the intervention dose. Mean attendance and instructors’ fidelity to the intervention manual decreased over time. The decline in attendance was largely attributed to extraneous factors common to after-school activities. Qualitative data suggest that the training and intervention manual were helpful to most instructors. Participant ratings of session enjoyment were high but perceived exertion was low, however, girls found parts of the intervention challenging. / Conclusions: The intervention was enjoyed by participants. Attendance at the intervention sessions was low but typical of after-school activities. Participants reported that the intervention brought about numerous health and social benefits and improved their dance-based knowledge and skills. The intervention could be improved by reducing the number of girls allowed to participate in each school and providing longer and more in-depth training to those delivering the intervention. / Trial registration: ISRCTN52882523 Registered 25th April 2013

Using self-determination theory to promote adolescent girls' physical activity: Exploring the theoretical fidelity of the Bristol Girls Dance Project

OBJECTIVES: To report the theory-based process evaluation of the Bristol Girls' Dance Project, a cluster-randomised controlled trial to increase adolescent girls' physical activity. DESIGN: A mixed-method process evaluation of the intervention's self-determination theory components comprising lesson observations, post-intervention interviews and focus groups. METHOD: Four intervention dance lessons per dance instructor were observed, audio recorded and rated to estimate the use of need-supportive teaching strategies. Intervention participants (n = 281) reported their dance instructors' provision of autonomy-support. Semi-structured interviews with the dance instructors (n = 10) explored fidelity to the theory and focus groups were conducted with participants (n = 59) in each school to explore their receipt of the intervention and views on the dance instructors' motivating style. RESULTS: Although instructors accepted the theory-based approach, intervention fidelity was variable. Relatedness support was the most commonly observed need-supportive teaching behaviour, provision of structure was moderate and autonomy-support was comparatively low. The qualitative findings identified how instructors supported competence and developed trusting relationships with participants. Fidelity was challenged where autonomy provision was limited to option choices rather than input into the pace or direction of lessons and where controlling teaching styles were adopted, often to manage disruptive behaviour. CONCLUSION: The successes and challenges to achieving theoretical fidelity in the Bristol Girls' Dance Project may help explain the intervention effects and can more broadly inform the design of theory-based complex interventions aimed at increasing young people's physical activity in after-school settings

Bristol Girls Dance Project: a cluster randomised controlled trial of an after-school dance programme to increase physical activity among 11- to 12-year-old girls

BACKGROUND: Many children do not meet UK physical activity (PA) guidelines. Girls are less active than boys, and the age-related decline in activity is steeper for girls. Dance is the favourite form of PA among adolescent girls in the UK. Participation in after-school dance classes could significantly contribute to girls’ PA. Therefore, after-school dance may be effective for increasing PA levels. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a dance-based intervention to increase the objectively assessed mean weekday minutes of moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) of Year 7 girls (11- and 12-year olds) 1 year after baseline measurement. DESIGN:Two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation. Year 7 girls in participant schools received a ‘taster’ session and were invited to participate. Up to 33 girls per school were able to participate. Schools were randomly assigned (equal numbers) to intervention or control arms. SETTING:A total of 18 mainstream secondary schools across greater Bristol. PARTICIPANTS: Year 7 girls in participating schools who could participate in physical education. INTERVENTION: Nine intervention schools received an after-school dance intervention (40 × 75-minute sessions) underpinned by self-determination theory, which attempts to improve intrinsic motivation for being active, and delivered by external dance instructors. Control schools continued as normal. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome was accelerometer-assessed mean minutes of MVPA at T2. Measures were assessed at baseline (T0), the end of the intervention (T1) and at T0 + 52 weeks (T2). RESULTS:Baseline MVPA levels were high. A total of 508 girls were included in the primary analysis, which found no difference in weekday MVPA between trial arms. There was no effect on secondary accelerometer outcomes. Data were subjected to a per-protocol analysis and no effect was found. However, at T1, girls who attended dance classes had 4.61 minutes more of MVPA and 14.27 minutes more of light-intensity activity between 15.00 and 17.00 on the days on which they attended intervention sessions. The intervention was inexpensive at £73 per participant (£63 when excluding dance instructor travel) but was not cost-effective owing to the ineffectiveness of the intervention. The European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions Youth survey data were unresponsive to changes in the sample. The process evaluation reported that girls in attendance enjoyed the sessions, that exertion levels were low during sessions and that attendance was low and declined. Fidelity to the session-plan manual was low but theoretical fidelity (to self-determination theory) was good. Qualitative information provides information for improving future interventions. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was enjoyed by participants. However, there was no difference in the MVPA levels (which were high at baseline) of girls allocated to receive dance compared with girls receiving the control. High baseline MVPA levels indicate that the study appealed to an already active cohort and, therefore, may not have targeted those most in need of an intervention. Dance is an enjoyable activity for adolescent girls and could be further trialled as a means by which to increase PA. Research might consider the impact of dividing the intervention period into smaller blocks. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52882523. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme. The work was also undertaken with the support of the Centre for the Development and Evaluation of Complex Interventions for Public Health Improvement (DECIPHer), a UK Clinical Research Collaboration (UKCRC) PHR Centre of Excellence. Joint funding (MR/KO232331/1) from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the Welsh Government and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UKCRC, is gratefully acknowledged. This study was designed and delivered in collaboration with the Bristol Randomised Trials Collaboration, a UKCRC Registered Clinical Trials Unit in receipt of NIHR Clinical Trials Unit support funding. All intervention costs were funded by the respective councils to which the participant schools were affiliated, namely North Somerset Council, Bristol City Council, and Bath and North East Somerset Council

Process evaluation for complex interventions in primary care: understanding trials using the normalization process model

Background: the Normalization Process Model is a conceptual tool intended to assist in understanding the factors that affect implementation processes in clinical trials and other evaluations of complex interventions. It focuses on the ways that the implementation of complex interventions is shaped by problems of workability and integration.Method: in this paper the model is applied to two different complex trials: (i) the delivery of problem solving therapies for psychosocial distress, and (ii) the delivery of nurse-led clinics for heart failure treatment in primary care.Results: application of the model shows how process evaluations need to focus on more than the immediate contexts in which trial outcomes are generated. Problems relating to intervention workability and integration also need to be understood. The model may be used effectively to explain the implementation process in trials of complex interventions.Conclusion: the model invites evaluators to attend equally to considering how a complex intervention interacts with existing patterns of service organization, professional practice, and professional-patient interaction. The justification for this may be found in the abundance of reports of clinical effectiveness for interventions that have little hope of being implemented in real healthcare setting

Changes in Gray Matter Induced by Learning—Revisited

BACKGROUND: Recently, activation-dependant structural brain plasticity in humans has been demonstrated in adults after three months of training a visio-motor skill. Learning three-ball cascade juggling was associated with a transient and highly selective increase in brain gray matter in the occipito-temporal cortex comprising the motion sensitive area hMT/V5 bilaterally. However, the exact time-scale of usage-dependant structural changes occur is still unknown. A better understanding of the temporal parameters may help to elucidate to what extent this type of cortical plasticity contributes to fast adapting cortical processes that may be relevant to learning. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a 3 Tesla scanner and monitoring whole brain structure we repeated and extended our original study in 20 healthy adult volunteers, focussing on the temporal aspects of the structural changes and investigated whether these changes are performance or exercise dependant. The data confirmed our earlier observation using a mean effects analysis and in addition showed that learning to juggle can alter gray matter in the occipito-temporal cortex as early as after 7 days of training. Neither performance nor exercise alone could explain these changes. CONCLUSION: We suggest that the qualitative change (i.e. learning of a new task) is more critical for the brain to change its structure than continued training of an already-learned task

Bayesian Based Comment Spam Defending Tool

Spam messes up user's inbox, consumes network resources and spread worms and viruses. Spam is flooding of unsolicited, unwanted e mail. Spam in blogs is called blog spam or comment spam.It is done by posting comments or flooding spams to the services such as blogs, forums,news,email archives and guestbooks. Blog spams generally appears on guestbooks or comment pages where spammers fill a comment box with spam words. In addition to wasting user's time with unwanted comments, spam also consumes a lot of bandwidth. In this paper, we propose a software tool to prevent such blog spams by using Bayesian Algorithm based technique. It is derived from Bayes' Theorem. It gives an output which has a probability that any comment is spam, given that it has certain words in it. With using our past entries and a comment entry, this value is obtained and compared with a threshold value to find if it exceeds the threshold value or not. By using this concept, we developed a software tool to block comment spam. The experimental results show that the Bayesian based tool is working well. This paper has the major findings and their significance of blog spam filter.Comment: 14 Pages,4 Figures, International Journal of Network Security & Its Applications (IJNSA), Vol.2, No.4, October 201

Intellectual property enclosure and economic discourse in the 2012 London Olympic Games.

Special legislation associated with mega sporting events has enabled new forms of cultural enclosure, effectively commoditising aspects of cultural expression that previously remained in the public domain. In this article, the authors examine the tension between economic and political justifications for hosting the Olympics and the intellectual property enclosures that are imposed upon host nations. These enclosures extend beyond what is traditionally protected under trade mark law, to include ‘generic’ terms. Enabling market competitors to freely use generic, descriptive language is a core doctrine of trade mark law, seeking to balance monopoly IP rights with free market competition. The authors evaluate the impact of special legislative enclosures on the public interest, and argue that collective access to expression should be more carefully considered in political and economic calculations of the value of the Olympics

Spatial Guilds in the Serengeti Food Web Revealed by a Bayesian Group Model

Food webs, networks of feeding relationships among organisms, provide fundamental insights into mechanisms that determine ecosystem stability and persistence. Despite long-standing interest in the compartmental structure of food webs, past network analyses of food webs have been constrained by a standard definition of compartments, or modules, that requires many links within compartments and few links between them. Empirical analyses have been further limited by low-resolution data for primary producers. In this paper, we present a Bayesian computational method for identifying group structure in food webs using a flexible definition of a group that can describe both functional roles and standard compartments. The Serengeti ecosystem provides an opportunity to examine structure in a newly compiled food web that includes species-level resolution among plants, allowing us to address whether groups in the food web correspond to tightly-connected compartments or functional groups, and whether network structure reflects spatial or trophic organization, or a combination of the two. We have compiled the major mammalian and plant components of the Serengeti food web from published literature, and we infer its group structure using our method. We find that network structure corresponds to spatially distinct plant groups coupled at higher trophic levels by groups of herbivores, which are in turn coupled by carnivore groups. Thus the group structure of the Serengeti web represents a mixture of trophic guild structure and spatial patterns, in contrast to the standard compartments typically identified in ecological networks. From data consisting only of nodes and links, the group structure that emerges supports recent ideas on spatial coupling and energy channels in ecosystems that have been proposed as important for persistence.Comment: 28 pages, 6 figures (+ 3 supporting), 2 tables (+ 4 supporting

Which quality of life score is best for glaucoma patients and why?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The glaucomas are generally asymptomatic diseases until they are very advanced. They affect 2% of the population over 40 years of age and therefore represent a significant public health issue. There have been a number of attempts to develop quality of life scales for the disease. This review discusses the pros and cons of these scales and suggests the best of the current ones for use in a clinical setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Medline, Embase and Google Scholar were searched for relevant articles. No time period was defined and all types of article were included.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>11 Quality of Life scores were identified that have been used with glaucoma patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There is no generally accepted 'best' Quality of Life instrument for use in glaucoma. Many of the scales are biased towards physical symptoms and do little to address the personal or social factors of the disease. Further work is needed to produce scales that address all these areas as well as being simple to administer in a clinical setting.</p