Underwriting Apophenia and Cryptids: Are Cycles Statistical Figments of our Imagination?

This paper re-examines the evidence in favour of the existence of underwriting cycles in property and casualty insurance and their economical significance. Using a meta-analysis of published papers in the area of insurance economics, we show that the evidence supporting the existence of underwriting cycles is misleading. There is, in fact, little evidence in favour of insurance cycles with a linear autoregressive character. This means that any cyclicality in firm profitability in the property and casualty insurance industry is not predictable in a classical econometric framework. It follows that pricing in the property and casualty insurance industry is not incompatible with that of a competitive market

The fitness of African malaria vectors in the presence and limitation of host behaviour

<p>Background Host responses are important sources of selection upon the host species range of ectoparasites and phytophagous insects. However little is known about the role of host responses in defining the host species range of malaria vectors. This study aimed to estimate the relative importance of host behaviour to the feeding success and fitness of African malaria vectors, and assess its ability to predict their known host species preferences in nature.</p> <p>Methods Paired evaluations of the feeding success and fitness of African vectors Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles gambiae s.s in the presence and limitation of host behaviour were conducted in a semi-field system (SFS) at Ifakara Health Institute, Tanzania. In one set of trials, mosquitoes were released within the SFS and allowed to forage overnight on a host that was free to exhibit natural behaviour in response to insect biting. In the other, mosquitoes were allowed to feed directly on from the skin surface of immobile hosts. The feeding success and subsequent fitness of vectors under these conditions were investigated on 6 host types (humans, calves, chickens, cows, dogs and goats) to assess whether physical movements of preferred host species (cattle for An. arabiensis, humans for An. gambiae s.s.) were less effective at preventing mosquito bites than those of common alternatives.</p> <p>Results Anopheles arabiensis generally had greater feeding success when applied directly to host skin than when foraging on unrestricted hosts (in five of six host species). However, An. gambiae s.s obtained blood meals from free and restrained hosts with similar success from most host types (four out of six). Overall, the blood meal size, oviposition rate, fecundity and post-feeding survival of mosquito vectors were significantly higher after feeding on hosts free to exhibit behaviour, than those who were immobilized during feeding trials.</p> <p>Conclusions Allowing hosts to move freely during exposure to mosquitoes was associated with moderate reductions in mosquito feeding success, but no detrimental impact to the subsequent fitness of mosquitoes that were able to feed upon them. This suggests that physical defensive behaviours exhibited by common host species including humans do not impose substantial fitness costs on African malaria vectors.</p&gt

Studying Cat (Felis catus) Diabetes: Beware of the Acromegalic Imposter

Naturally occurring diabetes mellitus (DM) is common in domestic cats (Felis catus). It has been proposed as a model for human Type 2 DM given many shared features. Small case studies demonstrate feline DM also occurs as a result of insulin resistance due to a somatotrophinoma. The current study estimates the prevalence of hypersomatotropism or acromegaly in the largest cohort of diabetic cats to date, evaluates clinical presentation and ease of recognition. Diabetic cats were screened for hypersomatotropism using serum total insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1; radioimmunoassay), followed by further evaluation of a subset of cases with suggestive IGF-1 (>1000 ng/ml) through pituitary imaging and/ or histopathology. Clinicians indicated pre-test suspicion for hypersomatotropism. In total 1221 diabetic cats were screened; 319 (26.1%) demonstrated a serum IGF-1>1000 ng/ml (95% confidence interval: 23.6-28.6%). Of these cats a subset of 63 (20%) underwent pituitary imaging and 56/63 (89%) had a pituitary tumour on computed tomography; an additional three on magnetic resonance imaging and one on necropsy. These data suggest a positive predictive value of serum IGF-1 for hypersomatotropism of 95% (95% confidence interval: 90-100%), thus suggesting the overall hypersomatotropism prevalence among UK diabetic cats to be 24.8% (95% confidence interval: 21.2-28.6%). Only 24% of clinicians indicated a strong pre-test suspicion; most hypersomatotropism cats did not display typical phenotypical acromegaly signs. The current data suggest hypersomatotropism screening should be considered when studying diabetic cats and opportunities exist for comparative acromegaly research, especially in light of the many detected communalities with the human disease

Controls on gut phosphatisation : the trilobites from the Weeks Formation Lagerstätte (Cambrian; Utah)

Despite being internal organs, digestive structures are frequently preserved in Cambrian Lagerstätten. However, the reasons for their fossilisation and their biological implications remain to be thoroughly explored. This is particularly true with arthropods--typically the most diverse fossilised organisms in Cambrian ecosystems--where digestive structures represent an as-yet underexploited alternative to appendage morphology for inferences on their biology. Here we describe the phosphatised digestive structures of three trilobite species from the Cambrian Weeks Formation Lagerstätte (Utah). Their exquisite, three-dimensional preservation reveals unique details on trilobite internal anatomy, such as the position of the mouth and the absence of a differentiated crop. In addition, the presence of paired pygidial organs of an unknown function is reported for the first time. This exceptional material enables exploration of the relationships between gut phosphatisation and the biology of organisms. Indeed, soft-tissue preservation is unusual in these fossils as it is restricted to the digestive structures, which indicates that the gut played a central role in its own phosphatisation. We hypothesize that the gut provided a microenvironment where special conditions could develop and harboured a source of phosphorus. The fact that gut phosphatization has almost exclusively been observed in arthropods could be explained by their uncommon ability to store ions (including phosphorous) in their digestive tissues. However, in some specimens from the Weeks Formation, the phosphatisation extends to the entire digestive system, suggesting that trilobites might have had some biological particularities not observed in modern arthropods. We speculate that one of them might have been an increased capacity for ion storage in the gut tissues, related to the moulting of their heavily-mineralised carapace

Neurobehavioral Mechanisms of Temporal Processing Deficits in Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson's disease (PD) disrupts temporal processing, but the neuronal sources of deficits and their response to dopamine (DA) therapy are not understood. Though the striatum and DA transmission are thought to be essential for timekeeping, potential working memory (WM) and executive problems could also disrupt timing.The present study addressed these issues by testing controls and PD volunteers 'on' and 'off' DA therapy as they underwent fMRI while performing a time-perception task. To distinguish systems associated with abnormalities in temporal and non-temporal processes, we separated brain activity during encoding and decision-making phases of a trial. Whereas both phases involved timekeeping, the encoding and decision phases emphasized WM and executive processes, respectively. The methods enabled exploration of both the amplitude and temporal dynamics of neural activity. First, we found that time-perception deficits were associated with striatal, cortical, and cerebellar dysfunction. Unlike studies of timed movement, our results could not be attributed to traditional roles of the striatum and cerebellum in movement. Second, for the first time we identified temporal and non-temporal sources of impaired time perception. Striatal dysfunction was found during both phases consistent with its role in timekeeping. Activation was also abnormal in a WM network (middle-frontal and parietal cortex, lateral cerebellum) during encoding and a network that modulates executive and memory functions (parahippocampus, posterior cingulate) during decision making. Third, hypoactivation typified neuronal dysfunction in PD, but was sometimes characterized by abnormal temporal dynamics (e.g., lagged, prolonged) that were not due to longer response times. Finally, DA therapy did not alleviate timing deficits.Our findings indicate that impaired timing in PD arises from nigrostriatal and mesocortical dysfunction in systems that mediate temporal and non-temporal control-processes. However, time perception impairments were not improved by DA treatment, likely due to inadequate restoration of neuronal activity and perhaps corticostriatal effective-connectivity

Ecological Modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) Pupal Production in Rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Background - Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, the most important arboviral infection globally. Until an effective vaccine is licensed and rigorously administered, Ae. aegypti control remains the principal tool in preventing and curtailing dengue transmission. Accurate predictions of vector populations are required to assess control methods and develop effective population reduction strategies. Ae. aegypti develops primarily in artificial water holding containers. Release recapture studies indicate that most adult Ae. aegypti do not disperse over long distances. We expect, therefore, that containers in an area of high development site density are more likely to be oviposition sites and to be more frequently used as oviposition sites than containers that are relatively isolated from other development sites. After accounting for individual container characteristics, containers more frequently used as oviposition sites are likely to produce adult mosquitoes consistently and at a higher rate. To this point, most studies of Ae. aegypti populations ignore the spatial density of larval development sites. Methodology - Pupal surveys were carried out from 2004 to 2007 in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. In total, 84,840 samples of water holding containers were used to estimate model parameters. Regression modeling was used to assess the effect of larval development site density, access to piped water, and seasonal variation on container productivity. A varying-coefficients model was employed to account for the large differences in productivity between container types. A two-part modeling structure, called a hurdle model, accounts for the large number of zeroes and overdispersion present in pupal population counts. Findings - The number of suitable larval development sites and their density in the environment were the primary determinants of the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae. The productivity of most container types increased significantly as habitat density increased. An ecological approach, accounting for development site density, is appropriate for predicting Ae. aegypti population levels and developing efficient vector control program

Mindfulness as a General Ingredient of Successful Psychotherapy

In this chapter I present a psychological conceptualization of mindfulness based on constructs in common therapeutic parlance. Taking a functional approach based on the skills and recognitions patients gain from the exercises commonly used in mindfulness training and avoiding exotic and cryptic language, it makes apparent both the commonality mindfulness has with modalities therapists will be already using in their clinical practice and the ways in which it may add something new and therapeutically useful. It also describes the evolutionary pressures that have shaped the biological imperatives driving the default movements of attention that result in day-to-day experience being experienced as less than pleasant; defaults that result in both the need for, and the challenge of cultivating mindfulness. So, while the instructions and narrative within which these principles are introduced into therapy will need to be adapted to the patient’s background and circumstances, an understanding and grounding in the principles enables the therapist both to skillfully make these adaptations to the training exercises and to make them immediately sensible to the patient, including the challenges they will meet in getting started

The Shareholder Wealth Effects of Insurance Securitization: Preliminary Evidence from the Catastrophe Bond Market

Insurance securitization has long been hailed as an important tool to increase the underwriting capacity for companies exposed to catastrophe-related risks. However, global volumes of insurance securitization have remained surprisingly low to date which raises questions over its benefits. In this paper, we examine changes in the market value of insurance and reinsurance firms which announce their engagement in insurance securitization by issuing catastrophe (Cat) bonds. Consistent with the hitherto underwhelming contribution of Cat bonds to global catastrophe coverage, we do not find evidence that Cat bonds lead to strong wealth gains for shareholders in the issuing firm. More importantly, we report large variations in the distribution of wealth effects in response to the issue announcement. We show that the wealth effects for shareholders in firms which issue Cat bonds appear to be driven by explanations according to which Cat bonds offer cost savings relative to other forms of catastrophe risk management (and less by the potential of Cat bonds to hedge catastrophe risk). Thus, abnormal returns are particularly large for issues by firms which face low levels of loss uncertainty (which reduces the information acquisition costs in financial markets) as well as for issues during periods when prices for catastrophe coverage (including Cat bonds) are low

MSH3 polymorphisms and protein levels affect CAG repeat instability in huntington's disease mice

Expansions of trinucleotide CAG/CTG repeats in somatic tissues are thought to contribute to ongoing disease progression through an affected individual's life with Huntington's disease or myotonic dystrophy. Broad ranges of repeat instability arise between individuals with expanded repeats, suggesting the existence of modifiers of repeat instability. Mice with expanded CAG/CTG repeats show variable levels of instability depending upon mouse strain. However, to date the genetic modifiers underlying these differences have not been identified. We show that in liver and striatum the R6/1 Huntington's disease (HD) (CAG)~100 transgene, when present in a congenic C57BL/6J (B6) background, incurred expansion-biased repeat mutations, whereas the repeat was stable in a congenic BALB/cByJ (CBy) background. Reciprocal congenic mice revealed the Msh3 gene as the determinant for the differences in repeat instability. Expansion bias was observed in congenic mice homozygous for the B6 Msh3 gene on a CBy background, while the CAG tract was stabilized in congenics homozygous for the CBy Msh3 gene on a B6 background. The CAG stabilization was as dramatic as genetic deficiency of Msh2. The B6 and CBy Msh3 genes had identical promoters but differed in coding regions and showed strikingly different protein levels. B6 MSH3 variant protein is highly expressed and associated with CAG expansions, while the CBy MSH3 variant protein is expressed at barely detectable levels, associating with CAG stability. The DHFR protein, which is divergently transcribed from a promoter shared by the Msh3 gene, did not show varied levels between mouse strains. Thus, naturally occurring MSH3 protein polymorphisms are modifiers of CAG repeat instability, likely through variable MSH3 protein stability. Since evidence supports that somatic CAG instability is a modifier and predictor of disease, our data are consistent with the hypothesis that variable levels of CAG instability associated with polymorphisms of DNA repair genes may have prognostic implications for various repeat-associated diseases