Addressing the sample size problem in behavioural operational research: simulating the newsvendor problem

Laboratory-based experimental studies with human participants are beneficial for testing hypotheses in behavioural operational research. However, such experiments are not without their problems. One specific problem is obtaining a sufficient sample size, not only in terms of the number of participants but also the time they are willing to devote to an experiment. In this paper, we explore how agent-based simulation (ABS) can be used to address the sample size problem and demonstrate the approach in the newsvendor setting. The decision-making strategies of a small sample of individual decision-makers are determined through laboratory experiments. The interactions of these suppliers and retailers are then simulated using an ABS to generate a large sample set of decisions. With only a small number of participants, we demonstrate that it is possible to produce similar results to previous experimental studies that involved much larger sample sizes. We conclude that ABS provides the potential to extend the scope of experimental research in behavioural operational research

The Features of the Synovium in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis According to the 2010 ACR/EULAR Classification Criteria

OBJECTIVES: It has been shown in early arthritis cohorts that the 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) enable an earlier diagnosis, perhaps at the cost of a somewhat more heterogeneous patient population. We describe the features of synovial inflammation in RA patients classified according to these new criteria. METHODS: At baseline, synovial tissue biopsy samples were obtained from disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-naïve early RA patients (clinical signs and symptoms <1 year). Synovial tissue was analyzed for cell infiltration, vascularity, and expression of adhesion molecules. Stained sections were evaluated by digital image analysis. Patients were classified according to the two different sets of classification criteria, autoantibody status, and outcome. FINDINGS: Synovial tissue of 69 RA patients according to 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria was analyzed: 56 patients who fulfilled the criteria for RA at baseline and 13 who were initially diagnosed as undifferentiated arthritis but fulfilled criteria for RA upon follow up. The synovium at baseline was infiltrated by plasma cells, macrophages, and T cells as well as other cells, and findings were comparable to those when patients were selected based on the 1987 ACR criteria for RA. There was no clear cut difference in the characteristics of the synovium between RA patients initially diagnosed as undifferentiated arthritis and those who already fulfilled classification criteria at baseline. CONCLUSION: The features of synovial inflammation are similar when the 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria are used compared to the 1987 ACR criteria

Interaction Between Pre- and Post-Migration Factors on Depressive Symptoms in New Migrants to Hong Kong from Mainland China

The goal of the current study is to examine the role of poor migration planning as a moderator for the effects of two post-migration factors, namely acculturation stress and quality of life, on symptoms of depression. Using a random sample of 347 Hong Kong new migrants from a 1-year longitudinal study, we used multiple regression analyses to examine both the direct and interaction effects of poorly planned migration, acculturation stress, and quality of life on depressive symptoms. Although poorly planned migration did not predict depressive symptoms at 1-year follow-up, it did exacerbate the detrimental effect of the two post-migration factors, namely high stress or low quality of life (both also measured at baseline) on depressive symptoms at this stage. Our results indicate that preventive measures must be developed for new immigrants in Hong Kong, especially for those who were not well prepared for migration

A model of online protection to reduce children's online risk exposure: empirical evidence from Asia

Children are surrounded by a variety of digital media and are exposed to potential risks that come with such easy accessibility. Learning how to be safe online is an important consideration for both children and their caregivers. The present study proposes an integrated model of online safety based on constructs from protection motivation theory and the health belief model, namely perceived severity of (and susceptibility to) risk, online self-efficacy, online privacy concern, and digital literacy. The study comprised a survey conducted among 420 schoolchildren aged 9–16 years. Using partial least squares-structural equation modelling, the results illustrated the presence of a negative effect of ‘perceived severity of online risk’ toward online risks, whereas the effect of ‘digital literacy’ was found to be positive. Children whose perception of online risks was more severe were less exposed to online risks if they had higher ‘online privacy concerns’ than the children with higher ‘digital literacy’ who are more exposed to online risk. Results of the study show that engaging in safe online behaviour requires children to have a high perception regarding severity of online risks as well as knowledge of online privacy concerns. Online risks and opportunities occur in parallel. Consequently, the factors that increase or decrease risk may also increase or decrease the benefits

A genomic atlas of systemic interindividual epigenetic variation in humans

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation is thought to be an important determinant of human phenotypic variation, but its inherent cell type specificity has impeded progress on this question. At exceptional genomic regions, interindividual variation in DNA methylation occurs systemically. Like genetic variants, systemic interindividual epigenetic variants are stable, can influence phenotype, and can be assessed in any easily biopsiable DNA sample. We describe an unbiased screen for human genomic regions at which interindividual variation in DNA methylation is not tissue-specific. RESULTS: For each of 10 donors from the NIH Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) program, CpG methylation is measured by deep whole-genome bisulfite sequencing of genomic DNA from tissues representing the three germ layer lineages: thyroid (endoderm), heart (mesoderm), and brain (ectoderm). We develop a computational algorithm to identify genomic regions at which interindividual variation in DNA methylation is consistent across all three lineages. This approach identifies 9926 correlated regions of systemic interindividual variation (CoRSIVs). These regions, comprising just 0.1% of the human genome, are inter-correlated over long genomic distances, associated with transposable elements and subtelomeric regions, conserved across diverse human ethnic groups, sensitive to periconceptional environment, and associated with genes implicated in a broad range of human disorders and phenotypes. CoRSIV methylation in one tissue can predict expression of associated genes in other tissues. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to charting a previously unexplored molecular level of human individuality, this atlas of human CoRSIVs provides a resource for future population-based investigations into how interindividual epigenetic variation modulates risk of disease