A Risk Score to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in an Elderly Spanish Mediterranean Population at High Cardiovascular Risk

Abstract Introduction: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Materials and Methods: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample). Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample). The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC). Results: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of $6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%), and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. Discussion: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire

Frequency of nut consumption and mortality risk in the PREDIMED nutrition intervention trial

BackgroundProspective studies in non-Mediterranean populations have consistently related increasing nut consumption to lower coronary heart disease mortality. A small protective effect on all-cause and cancer mortality has also been suggested. To examine the association between frequency of nut consumption and mortality in individuals at high cardiovascular risk from Spain, a Mediterranean country with a relatively high average nut intake per person.MethodsWe evaluated 7,216 men and women aged 55 to 80 years randomized to 1 of 3 interventions (Mediterranean diets supplemented with nuts or olive oil and control diet) in the PREDIMED (‘PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea’) study. Nut consumption was assessed at baseline and mortality was ascertained by medical records and linkage to the National Death Index. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression and multivariable analyses with generalized estimating equation models were used to assess the association between yearly repeated measurements of nut consumption and mortality.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 4.8 years, 323 total deaths, 81 cardiovascular deaths and 130 cancer deaths occurred. Nut consumption was associated with a significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality (P for trend 3 servings/week (32% of the cohort) had a 39% lower mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR) 0.61; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.83). A similar protective effect against cardiovascular and cancer mortality was observed. Participants allocated to the Mediterranean diet with nuts group who consumed nuts >3 servings/week at baseline had the lowest total mortality risk (HR 0.37; 95% CI 0.22 to 0.66).ConclusionsIncreased frequency of nut consumption was associated with a significantly reduced risk of mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.Please see related commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/11/165.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov. International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 35739639. Registration date: 5 October 2005

Effect of the Mediterranean diet on blood pressure in the PREDIMED trial: results from a randomized controlled trial

BackgroundHypertension can be prevented by adopting healthy dietary patterns. Our aim was to assess the 4-year effect on blood pressure (BP) control of a randomized feeding trial promoting the traditional Mediterranean dietary pattern.MethodsThe PREDIMED primary prevention trial is a randomized, single-blinded, controlled trial conducted in Spanish primary healthcare centers. We recruited 7,447 men (aged 55 to 80 years) and women (aged 60 to 80 years) who had high risk for cardiovascular disease. Participants were assigned to a control group or to one of two Mediterranean diets. The control group received education on following a low-fat diet, while the groups on Mediterranean diets received nutritional education and also free foods; either extra virgin olive oil, or nuts. Trained personnel measured participants’ BP at baseline and once yearly during a 4-year follow-up. We used generalized estimating equations to assess the differences between groups during the follow-up.ResultsThe percentage of participants with controlled BP increased in all three intervention groups (P-value for within-group changes: P<0.001). Participants allocated to either of the two Mediterranean diet groups had significantly lower diastolic BP than the participants in the control group (−1.53 mmHg (95% confidence interval (CI) −2.01 to −1.04) for the Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra virgin olive oil, and −0.65 mmHg (95% CI -1.15 to −0.15) mmHg for the Mediterranean diet supplemented with nuts). No between-group differences in changes of systolic BP were seen.ConclusionsBoth the traditional Mediterranean diet and a low-fat diet exerted beneficial effects on BP and could be part of advice to patients for controlling BP. However, we found lower values of diastolic BP in the two groups promoting the Mediterranean diet with extra virgin olive oil or with nuts than in the control group.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN3573963