Livestock trade network: potential for disease transmission and implications for risk-based surveillance on the island of Mayotte

The island of Mayotte is a department of France, an outermost region of the European Union located in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa. Due to its close connection to the African mainland and neighbouring islands, the island is under constant threat of introduction of infectious diseases of both human and animal origin. Here, using social network analysis and mathematical modelling, we assessed potential implications of livestock movements between communes in Mayotte for risk-based surveillance. Our analyses showed that communes in the central region of Mayotte acted as a hub in the livestock movement network. The majority of livestock movements occurred between communes in the central region and from communes in the central region to those in the outer region. Also, communes in the central region were more likely to be infected earlier than those in the outer region when the spread of an exotic infectious disease was simulated on the livestock movement network. The findings of this study, therefore, suggest that communes in the central region would play a major role in the spread of infectious diseases via livestock movements, which needs to be considered in the design of risk-based surveillance systems in Mayotte

Vaccination against Foot-and-mouth disease : do initial conditions affect its benefit?

When facing incursion of a major livestock infectious disease, the decision to implement a vaccination programme is made at the national level. To make this decision, governments must consider whether the benefits of vaccination are sufficient to outweigh potential additional costs, including further trade restrictions that may be imposed due to the implementation of vaccination. However, little consensus exists on the factors triggering its implementation on the field. This work explores the effect of several triggers in the implementation of a reactive vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease. In particular, we tested whether changes in the location of the incursion and the delay of implementation would affect the epidemiological benefit of such a policy in the context of Scotland. To reach this goal, we used a spatial, premises-based model that has been extensively used to investigate the effectiveness of mitigation procedures in Great Britain. The results show that the decision to vaccinate, or not, is not straightforward and strongly depends on the underlying local structure of the population-at-risk. With regards to disease incursion preparedness, simply identifying areas of highest population density may not capture all complexities that may influence the spread of disease as well as the benefit of implementing vaccination. However, if a decision to vaccinate is made, we show that delaying its implementation in the field may markedly reduce its benefit. This work provides guidelines to support policy makers in their decision to implement, or not, a vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of infectious livestock disease

Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle

Risk-Targeted Selection of Agricultural Holdings for Post-Epidemic Surveillance: Estimation of Efficiency Gains

Current post-epidemic sero-surveillance uses random selection of animal holdings. A better strategy may be to estimate the benefits gained by sampling each farm and use this to target selection. In this study we estimate the probability of undiscovered infection for sheep farms in Devon after the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak using the combination of a previously published model of daily infection risk and a simple model of probability of discovery of infection during the outbreak. This allows comparison of the system sensitivity (ability to detect infection in the area) of arbitrary, random sampling compared to risk-targeted selection across a full range of sampling budgets. We show that it is possible to achieve 95% system sensitivity by sampling, on average, 945 farms with random sampling and 184 farms with risk-targeted sampling. We also examine the effect of ordering samples by risk to expedite return to a disease-free status. Risk ordering the sampling process results in detection of positive farms, if present, 15.6 days sooner than with randomly ordered sampling, assuming 50 farms are tested per day

Can Geographical Factors Determine the Choices of Farmers in the Ethiopian Highlands to Trade in Livestock Markets?

Proximity and affiliation to the local market appear to be two of the most relevant factors to explain farmer's choices to select a particular trading point. Physical barriers may limit the options , especially in developing countries. A network of villages linked by traders/farmer-traders sharing livestock markets was built with field data collected in 75 villages from 8 kebelles in the Wassona Werna wereda of the Ethiopian Highlands. Two exponential random graph models were fitted with various geographical and demographic attributes of the nodes (dyadic independent model) and three internal network structures (dyadic dependent model). Several diagnostic methods were applied to assess the goodness of fit of the models. The odds of an edge where the distance to the main market Debre Behran and the difference in altitude between two connected villages are both large increases significantly so that villages far away from the main market and at different altitude are more likely to be linked in the network than randomly. The odds of forming an edge between two villages in Abamote or Gudoberet kebelles are approximately 75% lower than an edge between villages in any other kebelles (p<0.05). The conditional log-odds of two villages forming a tie that is not included in a triangle, a 2-star or a 3-star is extremely low, increasing the odds significantly (p<0.05) each time a node is in a 2-star structure and decreasing it when a node is in a 3-star (p<0.05) or in a triangle formation (p<0.05)), conditional on the rest of the network. Two major constraining factors, namely distance and altitude, are not deterrent for the potential contact of susceptible small ruminant populations in the Highlands of Ethiopia

A farm-level study of risk factors associated with the colonization of broiler flocks with Campylobacter spp. in Iceland, 2001 – 2004

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Following increased rates of human campylobacteriosis in the late 1990's, and their apparent association with increased consumption of fresh chicken meat, a longitudinal study was conducted in Iceland to identify the means to decrease the frequency of broiler flock colonization with <it>Campylobacter</it>. Our objective in this study was to identify risk factors for flock colonization acting at the broiler farm level.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between May 2001 and September 2004, pooled caecal samples were obtained from 1,425 flocks at slaughter and cultured for <it>Campylobacter</it>. Due to the strong seasonal variation in flock prevalence, analyses were restricted to a subset of 792 flocks raised during the four summer seasons. Flock results were collapsed to the farm level, such that the number of positive flocks and the total number of flocks raised were summed for each farm. Logistic regression models were fitted to the data using automated and manual selection methods. Variables of interest included manure management, water source and treatment, other poultry/livestock on farm, and farm size and management.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 792 flocks raised during the summer seasons originated from 83 houses on 33 farms, and of these, 217 (27.4%) tested positive. The median number of flocks per farm was 14, and the median number of positive flocks per farm was three. Three farms did not have any positive flocks. In general, factors associated with an increased risk of <it>Campylobacter </it>were increasing median flock size on the farm (p ≤ 0.001), spreading manure on the farm (p = 0.004 to 0.035), and increasing the number of broiler houses on the farm (p = 0.008 to 0.038). Protective factors included the use of official (municipal) (p = 0.004 to 0.051) or official treated (p = 0.006 to 0.032) water compared to the use of non-official untreated water, storing manure on the farm (p = 0.025 to 0.029), and the presence of other domestic livestock on the farm (p = 0.004 to 0.028).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Limiting the average flock size, and limiting the number of houses built on new farms, are interventions that require investigation. Water may play a role in the transmission of <it>Campylobacter</it>, therefore the use of official water, and potentially, treating non-official water may reduce the risk of colonization. Manure management practices deserve further attention.</p

Poor reproductive performance in pigs

https://red.mnstate.edu/commencement/1111/thumbnail.jp