Predicting the start week of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks using real time weather variables

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), a major cause of bronchiolitis, has a large impact on the census of pediatric hospitals during outbreak seasons. Reliable prediction of the week these outbreaks will start, based on readily available data, could help pediatric hospitals better prepare for large outbreaks.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier models were constructed using weather data from 1985-2008 considering only variables that are available in real time and that could be used to forecast the week in which an RSV outbreak will occur in Salt Lake County, Utah. Outbreak start dates were determined by a panel of experts using 32,509 records with ICD-9 coded RSV and bronchiolitis diagnoses from Intermountain Healthcare hospitals and clinics for the RSV seasons from 1985 to 2008.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>NB models predicted RSV outbreaks up to 3 weeks in advance with an estimated sensitivity of up to 67% and estimated specificities as high as 94% to 100%. Temperature and wind speed were the best overall predictors, but other weather variables also showed relevance depending on how far in advance the predictions were made. The weather conditions predictive of an RSV outbreak in our study were similar to those that lead to temperature inversions in the Salt Lake Valley.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We demonstrate that Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier models based on weather data available in real time have the potential to be used as effective predictive models. These models may be able to predict the week that an RSV outbreak will occur with clinical relevance. Their clinical usefulness will be field tested during the next five years.</p

Regional and social differences concerning overweight, participation in health check-ups and vaccination. Analysis of data from a whole birth cohort of 6-year old children in a prosperous German city

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies on health inequalities still focus mostly on adults. Research about social disparities and health in children is slowly increasing, also in Germany, but these studies are mostly restricted to individual social variables derived from the parents to determine social class. This paper analyses the data of the medical check-up prior to school enrolment to determine differences concerning overweight, participation in health check-ups and immunization; it includes individual social variables but also regional variables describing the social environment of the children.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The dataset includes 9,353 children who started school in 2004 in Munich, Germany. Three dependent variables are included (i.e. overweight, health check-ups, vaccinations). The individual level social variables are: children's sex, mother tongue of the parents, Kindergarten visit. On the small scale school district level, two regional social variables could be included as well, i.e. percentage of single-parent households, percentage of households with low educational level. Associations are assessed by cross tables and regression analyses. The regional level variables are included by multilevel analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analyses indicate that there is a large variation between the school districts concerning the three dependent variables, and that there is no district with very 'problematic values' for all three of them (i.e. high percentage of overweight, low levels of health check-ups and vaccinations). Throughout the bivariate and multivariate analyses, the mother tongue of the children's parents shows the most pronounced association with these dependent variables; i.e. children growing up in non-German-speaking families tend to be more overweight and don't visit preventive check-ups as often as children of German-speaking parents. An opposite association can be seen concerning vaccinations. Regional level influences are present as well, but they are rather small when the individual level social variables are controlled for.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The dataset of the medical check-up prior to school enrolment offers a great opportunity for public health research, as it comprises a whole age cohort. The number and scope of variables is quite limited, though. On one hand, it includes only few variables on health or health related risks. On the other, it would be important to have more information from the region where the children live, e.g. the availability of community and health care services for parents and children, social networks of families with children, areas where children can play outside, traffic noise and air pollution. Despite these shortcomings, the need for specific interventions can already be derived from the data analyzed here, e.g. programs to reduce overweight in children should focus on parents with a mother tongue other than German.</p

Epidemiology and seasonality of respiratory viral infections in hospitalized children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: a retrospective study of 27 years

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Viral respiratory tract infections (RTI) are relatively understudied in Southeast Asian tropical countries. In temperate countries, seasonal activity of respiratory viruses has been reported, particularly in association with temperature, while inconsistent correlation of respiratory viral activity with humidity and rain is found in tropical countries. A retrospective study was performed from 1982-2008 to investigate the viral etiology of children (≤ 5 years old) admitted with RTI in a tertiary hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 10269 respiratory samples from all children ≤ 5 years old received at the hospital's diagnostic virology laboratory between 1982-2008 were included in the study. Immunofluorescence staining (for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B, parainfluenza types 1-3, and adenovirus) and virus isolation were performed. The yearly hospitalization rates and annual patterns of laboratory-confirmed viral RTIs were determined. Univariate ANOVA was used to analyse the demographic parameters of cases. Multiple regression and Spearman's rank correlation were used to analyse the correlation between RSV cases and meteorological parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 2708 cases were laboratory-confirmed using immunofluorescence assays and viral cultures, with the most commonly detected being RSV (1913, 70.6%), parainfluenza viruses (357, 13.2%), influenza viruses (297, 11.0%), and adenovirus (141, 5.2%). Children infected with RSV were significantly younger, and children infected with influenza viruses were significantly older. The four main viruses caused disease throughout the year, with a seasonal peak observed for RSV in September-December. Monthly RSV cases were directly correlated with rain days, and inversely correlated with relative humidity and temperature.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Viral RTIs, particularly due to RSV, are commonly detected in respiratory samples from hospitalized children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. As in temperate countries, RSV infection in tropical Malaysia also caused seasonal yearly epidemics, and this has implications for prophylaxis and vaccination programmes.</p

Hip fractures and area level socioeconomic conditions: a population-based study

Icks A, Haastert B, Wildner M, et al. Hip fractures and area level socioeconomic conditions: a population-based study. BMC Public Health. 2009;9(1):114.Background: Only a limited number of studies have analyzed the association between hip fracture incidence and socioeconomic conditions. Most, but not all found an association, and results are in part conflicting. The aim of our study was to evaluate the association between hip fractures and socioeconomic conditions in Germany, from 1995 to 2004, on a census tract area level. Methods: We used data from the national hospital discharge diagnosis register and data on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of 131 census tracts from official statistics. Associations between the hip fracture incidence and socioeconomic conditions were analyzed by multiple Poisson regression models, taking overdispersion into account. Results: The risk of hip fracture decreased by 4% with a 7% increase (about one interquartile range) of non-German nationals. It decreased by 10% with a 6% increased rate of unemployment, increased by 7% with a 2% increase of the proportion of welfare recipients, and also increased by 3% with an increase of the proportion of single parent families of 1.9%. Conclusion: Our results showed weak associations between indicators of socioeconomic conditions at area level and hip fracture risk; the varied by type of indicator. We conclude that hip fracture incidence might be influenced by the socioeconomic context of a region, but further analysis using more specific markers for deprivation on a smaller scale and individual-level data are needed

Molecular Epidemiology and Evolution of Human Enterovirus Serotype 68 in Thailand, 2006–2011

BACKGROUND: Publications worldwide have reported on the re-occurrence of human enterovirus 68 (EV68), a rarely detected pathogen usually causing respiratory illness. However, epidemiological data regarding this virus in particular on the Asian continent has so far been limited. METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS: We investigated the epidemiology and genetic variability of EV68 infection among Thai children with respiratory illnesses from 2006-2011 (n = 1810). Semi-nested PCR using primer sets for amplification of the 5'-untranslated region through VP2 was performed for rhino-enterovirus detection. Altogether, 25 cases were confirmed as EV68 infection indicating a prevalence of 1.4% in the entire study population. Interestingly, the majority of samples were children aged >5 years (64%). Also, co-infection with other viruses was found in 28%, while pandemic H1N1 influenza/2009 virus was the most common co-infection. Of EV68-positive patients, 36% required hospitalizations with the common clinical presentations of fever, cough, dyspnea, and wheezing. The present study has shown that EV68 was extremely rare until 2009 (0.9%). An increasing annual prevalence was found in 2010 (1.6%) with the highest detection frequency in 2011 (4.3%). Based on analysis of the VP1 gene, the evolutionary rate of EV68 was estimated at 4.93 × 10(-3) substitutions/site/year. Major bifurcation of the currently circulating EV68 strains occurred 66 years ago (1945.31 with (1925.95-1960.46)95% HPD). Among the current lineages, 3 clusters of EV68 were categorized based on the different molecular signatures in the BC and DE loops of VP1 combined with high posterior probability values. Each cluster has branched off from their common ancestor at least 36 years ago (1975.78 with (1946.13-1984.97)95% HPD). CONCLUSION: Differences in epidemiological characteristic and seasonal profile of EV68 have been found in this study. Results from Bayesian phylogenetic investigations also revealed that EV68 should be recognized as a genetically diverse virus with a substitution rate identical to that of enterovirus 71 genotype B (4.2 × 10(-3 )s/s/y)

Transmission Characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic: Comparison of 8 Southern Hemisphere Countries

While in Northern hemisphere countries, the pandemic H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm) was introduced outside of the typical influenza season, Southern hemisphere countries experienced a single wave of transmission during their 2009 winter season. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the spread of a single virus in different countries and study the factors influencing its transmission. Here, we estimate and compare transmission characteristics of H1N1pdm for eight Southern hemisphere countries/states: Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa and Victoria (Australia). Weekly incidence of cases and age-distribution of cumulative cases were extracted from public reports of countries' surveillance systems. Estimates of the reproduction numbers, R0, empirically derived from the country-epidemics' early exponential phase, were positively associated with the proportion of children in the populations (p = 0.004). To explore the role of demography in explaining differences in transmission intensity, we then fitted a dynamic age-structured model of influenza transmission to available incidence data for each country independently, and for all the countries simultaneously. Posterior median estimates of R0 ranged 1.2–1.8 for the country-specific fits, and 1.29–1.47 for the global fits. Corresponding estimates for overall attack-rate were in the range 20–50%. All model fits indicated a significant decrease in susceptibility to infection with age. These results confirm the transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus was relatively low compared with past pandemics. The pattern of age-dependent susceptibility found confirms that older populations had substantial – though partial - pre-existing immunity, presumably due to exposure to heterologous influenza strains. Our analysis indicates that between-country-differences in transmission were at least partly due to differences in population demography

Children of Low Socioeconomic Status Show Accelerated Linear Growth in Early Childhood; Results from the Generation R Study

Objectives: People of low socioeconomic status are shorter than those of high socioeconomic status. The first two years of life being critical for height development, we hypothesized that a low socioeconomic status is associated with a slower linear growth in early childhood. We studied maternal educational level (high, mid-high, mid-low, and low) as a measure of socioeconomic status and its association with repeatedly measured height in children aged 0-2 years, and also examined to what extent known determinants of postnatal growth contribute to this association. Methods: This study was based on data from 2972 mothers with a Dutch ethnicity, and their children participating in The Generation R Study, a population-based cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands (participation rate 61%). All children were born between April 2002 and January 2006. Height was measured at 2 months (mid-90% range 1.0-3.9), 6 months (mid-90% range 5.6-11.4), 14 months (mid-90% range 13.7-17.9) and 25 months of age (mid-90% range 23.6-29.6). Results: At 2 months, children in the lowest educational subgroup were shorter than those in the highest (difference: -0.87 cm; 95% CI: -1.16, -0.58). Between 1 and 18 months, they grew faster than their counterparts. By 14 months, children in the lowest educational subgroup were taller than those in the highest (difference at 14 months: 0.40 cm; 95% CI: 0.08,0.72). Adjustment for other determinants of postnatal growth did not explain the taller height. On the contrary, the differences became even larger (difference at 14 months: 0.61 cm; 95% CI: 0.26,0.95; and at 25 months: 1.00 cm; 95% CI: 0.57,1.43) Conclusions: Compared with children of high socioeconomic status, those of low socioeconomic status show an accelerated linear growth until the18th month of life, leading to an overcompensation of their initial height deficit. The long-term consequences of these findings remain unclear and require further study

The Influence of Meteorology on the Spread of Influenza: Survival Analysis of an Equine Influenza (A/H3N8) Outbreak

The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20–25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour−1 from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions