Learning Priors for Bayesian Computations in the Nervous System

Our nervous system continuously combines new information from our senses with information it has acquired throughout life. Numerous studies have found that human subjects manage this by integrating their observations with their previous experience (priors) in a way that is close to the statistical optimum. However, little is known about the way the nervous system acquires or learns priors. Here we present results from experiments where the underlying distribution of target locations in an estimation task was switched, manipulating the prior subjects should use. Our experimental design allowed us to measure a subject's evolving prior while they learned. We confirm that through extensive practice subjects learn the correct prior for the task. We found that subjects can rapidly learn the mean of a new prior while the variance is learned more slowly and with a variable learning rate. In addition, we found that a Bayesian inference model could predict the time course of the observed learning while offering an intuitive explanation for the findings. The evidence suggests the nervous system continuously updates its priors to enable efficient behavior

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

Measurement of the Ratio of b Quark Production Cross Sections in Antiproton-Proton Collisions at 630 GeV and 1800 GeV

We report a measurement of the ratio of the bottom quark production cross section in antiproton-proton collisions at 630 GeV to 1800 GeV using bottom quarks with transverse momenta greater than 10.75 GeV identified through their semileptonic decays and long lifetimes. The measured ratio sigma(630)/sigma(1800) = 0.171 +/- .024 +/- .012 is in good agreement with next-to-leading order (NLO) quantum chromodynamics (QCD)

Influence of ocean–atmospheric oscillations on lake ice phenology in eastern North America

Our results reveal long-term trends in ice out dates (1836–2013) for twelve lakes in Maine, New Brunswick and New Hampshire, in eastern North America. The trends are remarkably coherent between lakes (rs = 0.462–0.933, p < 0.01) and correlate closely with the March–April (MA) instrumental temperature records from the region (rs = 0.488–0.816, p < 0.01). This correlation permits use of ice out dates as a proxy to extend the shorter MA instrumental record (1876–2013). Mean ice out dates trended progressively earlier during the recovery from the Little Ice Age through to the 1940s, and gradually became later again through to the late 1970s, when ice out dates had returned to values more typical of the late nineteenth century. Post-1970’s ice out dates resumed trending toward earlier dates, with the twenty-first century being characterized by the earliest ice out dates on record. Spectral and wavelet time series analysis indicate that ice out is influenced by several teleconnections including the Quasi-biennial Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as a significant correlation between inland lake records and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The relative influence of these teleconnections is variable with notable shifts occurring after ~1870, ~1925, and ~1980–2000. The intermittent expression of these cycles in the ice out and MA instrumental record is not only influenced by absolute changes in the intensity of the various teleconnections and other climate drivers, but through phase interference between teleconnections, which periodically damps the various signals

Return to work trajectories after early breast cancer diagnosis: A population-based cohort study in the French National Healthcare Insurance database.

Return to work (RtW) is important for quality of life after breast cancer (BC), and a difficult challenge for many patients (pts). Current evidence relies mainly on selected populations and limited indicators. We aimed to construct RtW indicators based on sickness leave (SL) and disability pension (DP) benefits, and to explore RtW trajectories