Computing the Margin of Victory in Preferential Parliamentary Elections

We show how to use automated computation of election margins to assess the number of votes that would need to change in order to alter a parliamentary outcome for single-member preferential electorates. In the context of increasing automation of Australian electoral processes, and accusations of deliberate interference in elections in Europe and the USA, this work forms the basis of a rigorous statistical audit of the parliamentary election outcome. Our example is the New South Wales Legislative Council election of 2015, but the same process could be used for any similar parliament for which data was available, such as the Australian House of Representatives given the proposed automatic scanning of ballots

Notes on Nature Study

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Ethical and compliance-competence evaluation: a key element of sound corporate governance

Motivated by the ongoing post-Enron refocusing on corporate governance and the shift by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the UK to promoting compliance- competence within the financial services sector, this paper demonstrates how template analysis can be used as a tool for evaluating compliance-competence. Focusing on the ethical dimension of compliance-competence, we illustrate how this can be subjectively appraised. We propose that this evaluation technique could be utilised as a starting point in informing senior management of corporate governance issues and be used to monitor and demonstrate key compliance and ethical aspects of an institution to external stakeholders and regulators

Electrophoretic Patterns of Serum Proteins in Two Subspecies of Odocoileus virginianus

Cellulose acetate electrophoresis revealed six monomorphic forms of serum protein in natural populations of two subspecies of white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus virginianus from Tennessee and Odocoileus virginianus macroura from Arkansas. The fixed pattern of serum proteins in the two populations indicates a lack of genetic variation in the loci controlling these proteins. However, electrophoresis revealed different hemoglobin phenotypes in the two subspecies. This finding indicates that further study is needed to determine whether or not there are genetic differences in the hemoglobin form

Analysis of stratospheric ozone, temperature, and minor constituent data

The objective of this research is to use available satellite measurements of temperature and constituent concentrations to test the conceptual picture of stratospheric chemistry and transport. This was originally broken down into two sub-goals: first, to use the constituent data to search for critical tests of our understanding of stratospheric chemistry and second, to examine constituent transport processes emphasizing interactions with chemistry on various time scales. A third important goal which has evolved is to use the available solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data from Nimbus 7 to describe the morphology of recent changes in Antarctic and global ozone with emphasis on searching for constraints to theories. The major effort now being pursued relative to the two original goals is our effort as a theoretical team for the Arctic Airborne Stratospheric Expedition (AASE). Our effort for the AASE is based on the 3D transport and chemistry model at Goddard. Our goal is to use this model to place the results from the mission data in a regional and global context. Specifically, we set out to make model runs starting in late December and running through March of 1989, both with and without heterogeneous chemistry. The transport is to be carried out using dynamical fields from a 4D data assimilation model being developed under separate funding from this task. We have successfully carried out a series of single constituent transport experiments. One of the things demonstrated by these runs was the difficulty in obtaining observed low N2O abundances in the vortex without simultaneously obtaining very high ozone values. Because the runs start in late December, this difficulty arises in the attempt to define consistent initial conditions for the 3D model. To accomplish a consistent set of initial conditions, we are using the 2D photochemistry-transport model of Jackman and Douglass and mapping in potential temperature, potential vorticity space as developed by Schoeberl and coworkers

Fast two-dimensional model

A two dimensional (altitude and latitude) model of the atmosphere is used to investigate problems relating to the variability of the dynamics and temperature of the atmosphere on the ozone distribution, solar cycle variations of atmospheric constituents, the sensitivity of model results to tropospheric trace gas sources, and assessment computations of changes in ozone related to manmade influences. In a comparison between two dimensional model results in which the odd nitrogen family was transported together and model results in which the odd nitrogen species was transported separately, it was found that the family approximations are adequate for perturbation scenario calculations

Natural Cycles, Gases

The major gaseous components of the exhaust of stratospheric aircraft are expected to be the products of combustion (CO2 and H2O), odd nitrogen (NO, NO2 HNO3), and products indicating combustion inefficiencies (CO and total unburned hydrocarbons). The species distributions are produced by a balance of photochemical and transport processes. A necessary element in evaluating the impact of aircraft exhaust on the lower stratospheric composition is to place the aircraft emissions in perspective within the natural cycles of stratospheric species. Following are a description of mass transport in the lower stratosphere and a discussion of the natural behavior of the major gaseous components of the stratospheric aircraft exhaust

Predicted rocket and shuttle effects on stratospheric ozone

The major chemical effluents of either solid- or liquid-fueled rockets that can potentially perturb stratospheric ozone include chlorine compounds (HCl), nitrogen compounds (NO(x)), and hydrogen compounds (H2 and H2O). Radicals (Cl, ClO, H, OH, HO2, NO, and NO2) formed directly or indirectly from rocket exhaust can cause the catalytic destruction of ozone. Other exhaust compounds that could presumably lead to ozone destruction either by direct reaction with ozone or by providing a surface for heterogeneous processes include the particulates Al2O3, ice, and soot. These topics are discussed in terms of the possible effects of rocket exhausts on stratospheric ozone

Measurement, model testing, and legislative influence in the European Union

Within the last several years, new data have become available to test the various theoretical models of EU decision-making, and, in doing so, to assess actor influence. This article examines the extent to which the recent DEU and DEUII datasets provide sufficient information to distinguish between competing theoretical models of legislative decision-making, and accurately assess the power of the different branches of EU government. It argues that insufficient attention has been paid to measurement error in these data. Once measurement error is accounted for, it becomes clear that these data do not provide sufficient information to distinguish between most models of legislative politics. Moreover, empirical models that fail to account for measurement error are likely to lead researchers to erroneous conclusions about actors’ legislative influence. </jats:p