The Existence and Persistence of a Winner’s Curse: New Evidence from the (Baseball) Field

This study takes advantage of recent developments in the measurement and valuation of individual output in the baseball labor market to (i) reassess prior evidence that this market is afflicted by the winner’s curse phenomenon and (ii) test whether bidders learn to avoid this curse over time. Though we find no evidence of negative average returns on player contracts for the earliest cohort of baseball free agents, we conclude that teams in that era failed to efficiently discount their bids in accord with available information, especially about risk. What is more, evidence from a larger sample of players signed in the late 1990s shows that teams have continued to overvalue inconsistent free agents and failed to limit their bids to conform to players’ lower values in small markets. This is consistent with experimental evidence that finds bounded-rational behavior when bidders are faced with complex valuation problems involving multiple elements.market efficiency, bounded rationality, overbidding

Testing Fair Wage Theory

Fairness considerations often are invoked to explain wage differences that appear unrelated to worker characteristics or job conditions, but non-experimental tests of fair wage models are rare and weak because of the limits of available market-generated data. In particular, such data rarely permit researchers to (a) identify suitable reference points that employees and employers might use in determining what is fair and (b) control for employees’ marginal output and its value. This study utilizes a unique dataset from the baseball labor market that solves both problems. We find no support for fair wage theory in this market. We also find that fairness premia can be illusory: Wages appear to be adjusted upward for reasons of fairness in regressions that control for variation in individuals’ physical output, but such premia evaporate when the value of that output (which can be market- or firm-specific) is held constant. This suggests that avoiding proxy measures of workers’ marginal revenue products in wage studies might reduce the number of labor market "anomalies" economists must resolve.fairness, efficiency wages, wage differentials

Initial Public Offerings of Ballplayers

As a field study of choice under uncertainty, we examine baseball teams' investments in amateur players. Though most prospects fail to deliver any return on their multi-million dollar signing bonuses, returns on the minority who succeed easily offset these losses: the expected annual yield on the median first-round draftee is 33 percent. However, the pattern of returns is inconsistent with market efficiency. Yields are lower for high schoolers than collegians (27 percent vs. 43 percent), lower for pitchers than position players (24 percent vs. 41 percent), decline for later round long-shots, and may be negative under competitive bidding.Market efficiency; Bounded rationality; Prospect theory; Winner’s curse

THEMIS observations and riometry: A data comparison with a view to proxy and prediction

A comparison has been made between radio absorption events observed by riometer at selected times of day and bursts of electrons observed in the midnight sector by THEMIS satellites. The correlation is found to be good for absorption in the noon and midnight sectors but poor around dawn and dusk. For noon and midnight the absorption can be estimated from the THEMIS electron flux to better than a factor of 2 in most cases. In the noon sector the absorption follows the THEMIS event by about 30 min on average (though with considerable variation from case to case), but by night the absorption precedes the electron flux by about 8 min on average. Thus, the flux at THEMIS can be predicted from the absorption in the night sector, the accuracy being better than a factor of 3 in most cases. The flux observed also depends on the location of the satellite, reducing with increasing distance down the tail. It is estimated that the source of the tail events observed in this study was at about 6Re, and comparisons are made with the established general pattern of the substorm in auroral absorption

Improving productivity in Kenyan smallholder dairy systems through selective, intensive education and supported adoption

Improving productivity in Kenyan smallholder dairy systems is perceived as having the potential to greatly improve the supply of milk to processors and make substantial improvements in rural incomes by doing so. Surveys recently commissioned by GIZ in Western Kenya indicated that milk yield was between 1.8-3L/cow/d (depending on county). Poor milk yield is often attributed to poor genetics, but we discovered that frequently production is constrained by a lack of knowledge, particularly with regard to husbandry, feeds and feeding practice. Much has already been done in these areas by NGOs, but training is frequently short-term, focused on a narrow area and participant selection is untargeted. In the framework of a BMZ funded project we are working with NGOs, dairy co-operatives and GIZ to assess the potential of farmers to implement new technologies that will further improve their operations. We are specifically aiming at early adopters as those are likely to continue and thus, might serve as role models. We are currently identifying innovators in a number of communities in Western Kenya and will provide them with an 18d intensive course covering husbandry, animal nutrition, forage/crop agronomy and business analysis skills. On completion we will support each farmer to implement knowledge and technology in his/her community. These farmers should be able to adapt the skill set and learned technologies to their own situation, but also act as a focal point and exemplar to their own community. The presentation will outline the training concept, selection procedure of farmers, and summarise first results on knowledge implementation in the communities following the return of the trainees

Causes of Absenteeism and Dropout Among Girls in Secondary Schools in Bureti Sub County, Kenya

Education is an important aspect for overall development of every person irrespective of gender. In Kenya, thè girl child is faced with a number of challenges in thè process of her secondary school education. Such challenges might include  absenteeism and dropout rate which may lead to diminishing girl child participation in formal education. Determining factors affecting girl-child educationis a worthy cause. This study sought to investigate  the causes of absenteeism and dropout among the girls in secondary schools in Bureti Sub County.Survey research design was used in the study.  The target population of the study was 5541 girl students and 62 secondary school teacher counselors. The accessible population was360 girl students and 16 teacher counselors  in the study area. Stratified sampling techniquewas used to sample the accessible population. Piloting of the instruments was carried out to find out the content validity of the items. Cronbach Alpha coefficient was used to estimate the reliability of the SQ and CTQ, and was found to be 0.75 suggesting that the items had relatively high internal consistency. Data was analysed using descriptive statistics.The findings of the study may provide educational  policy makers with in- depth information on the factors that undermine the girl child’s education; and subsequently to the formulation of policies that could safeguard the girl child in the pursue of educational opportunities. Keywords: Education, Girl Child, Absenteeism, Dropou

Final report: Task 22 — Extreme ground motion studies

TASK 22 consisted of two separate investigations into extreme ground motions due to seismic events, Subtask 1 and Subtask 2. Subtask 1 included field studies of geological formations that should put an upper bound on extreme ground motions that have happened at the site of the formations. The locations are critically selected to provide the most effective constraints possible on the validity of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Yucca Mountain. Subtask 2 surveyed recorded ground motions from around the world, with the aim to draw general conclusions from these as to the conditions where extreme ground motions are observed. Recommendations for research concerning extreme ground motions were presented by Hanks et al. (2004 a,b). Preliminary results and feasibility conclusions were presented in a synthesis report by Brune et al. (2007, Synthesis Report)

Observations by incoherent scatter radar of related D- and F-region structuring at very high latitude

Properties and associations of F- and D-region ionospheric structures during weak electron precipitation at very high latitude are investigated using the Longyearbyen incoherent scatter radar. The radio absorption deduced from the electron density observations revealed evidence of a persistent low-altitude absorption layer peaking at 80-85 km. Inversion of the electron density profile to give an estimate of the incoming energetic electron spectrum suggests that its source may be the solar wind. Strong similarities are seen between variations in the F and D regions which suggest that the electron flux reaching the D-region is being modulated in energy by the variations of electron density in the F-region

The problem of underpowered rivers

This study has hypothesized that for many rivers the trade‐off between flow accumulation and the decrease in slope along channel length means that stream power increases downstream and, moreover, that given the low slope angles in headwater and low‐order streams, they would have insufficient stream power to erode let alone transport sediment. The study considered the stream power profile, the particle travel distances and the application of the Hjulström curve based on the velocity profile of nine, large UK catchments. The study showed that: Some rivers never showed a maximum in their longitudinal stream power profile, implying that some rivers never develop a deposition zone before they discharge at the tidal limit. Particle travel distances during a bankfull discharge event showed that for some rivers 91% of the upper main channel would not be cleared of sediment. Furthermore, while some rivers could transport a 2 mm particle their entire length in one bankfull event, for another river it would take 89 such events. The Hjulström curve shows that for three of the study rivers the upper 20 km of the river was not capable of eroding a 2 μm particle. The study has shown that for all rivers studied, erosion is focused downstream and deposition upstream. Many UK rivers have a dead zone where, on time scales of the order of centuries, no erosion or transport occurs and erosion only occurs in the lower courses of the channel where discharge rather than slope dominates – we propose these as underpowered rivers