Minimising carbon emissions and energy expended for the New Zealand transport sector through to 2050

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) and Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) analysis are combined to investigate the feasibility of New Zealand (NZ) reaching a 1990 emission levels for transport in 2050. The transportation sector traditionally has been a difficult area to transition to high levels of renewable energy because of the strong dependency on fossil fuels. Multiple scenarios for reducing transport emissions are analysed. With NZ’s unique mix of renewable energy resources the analysis demonstrates that NZ is in a very good position to sustainably meet their future transport needs provided substantial commitment is made to transition light vehicle fleet to hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrids vehicles and electric vehicles by 2050. Electrification of rail within and between major centres will also require major political commitment. The resulting increase in electricity demand for transport is 3.6 TWh (or 4.8 % of electricity generation in NZ). We show the minimum amount of biofuel renewable production to achieve the goal of 1990 emissions level in 2050 is 46 PJ. Delivering 46 PJ is expected to be well within the potential biofuel production capacity of NZ. The delivery of economically competitive renewable liquid biofuels will also require close cooperation and system integration with other energy systems like the electricity sector and industrial process heat sector

Carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) for emissions reduction in the New Zealand electricity sector

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) is a recent extension of traditional thermal and mass pinch analysis to the area of emissions targeting and planning on a macroscale (i.e. economy wide). This paper presents a carbon pinch analysis of the New Zealand electricity industry and illustrates some of the issues with realising meaningful emissions reductions. The current large proportion of renewable generation sources (~67% in 2007) complicates wholesale emissions reductions. The biggest growth in renewable generation is expected to come from geothermal energy followed by wind and hydro. A four fold increase in geothermal generation capacity is needed in addition to large amounts of new wind generation to reduce emissions to around 1990 levels and also meet projected demand. The expected expansion of geothermal generation in New Zealand raises issues of GHG emissions from the geothermal fields. The emissions factors between fields can vary by almost two orders of magnitude making predictions of total emissions highly site specific

Non-continuous and variable rate processes: Optimisation for energy use

The need to develop new and improved ways of reducing energy use and increasing energy intensity in industrial processes is currently a major issue in New Zealand. Little attention has been given to optimisation of non-continuous processes in the past, due to their complexity, yet they remain an essential and often energy intensive component of many industrial sites. Novel models based on pinch analysis that aid in minimising utility usage have been constructed here through the adaptation of proven continuous techniques. The knowledge has been integrated into a user friendly software package, and allows the optimisation of processes under variable operating rates and batch conditions. An example problem demonstrates the improvements in energy use that can be gained when using these techniques to analyse non-continuous data. A comparison with results achieved using a pseudo-continuous method show that the method described can provide simultaneous reductions in capital and operating costs

Thermal Detection of Turbulent and Laminar Dissipation in Vortex Front Motion

We report on direct measurements of the energy dissipated in the spin-up of the superfluid component of 3He-B. A vortex-free sample is prepared in a cylindrical container, where the normal component rotates at constant angular velocity. At a temperature of 0.20Tc, seed vortices are injected into the system using the shear-flow instability at the interface between 3He-B and 3He-A. These vortices interact and create a turbulent burst, which sets a propagating vortex front into motion. In the following process, the free energy stored in the initial vortex-free state is dissipated leading to the emission of thermal excitations, which we observe with a bolometric measurement. We find that the turbulent front contains less than the equilibrium number of vortices and that the superfluid behind the front is partially decoupled from the reference frame of the container. The final equilibrium state is approached in the form of a slow laminar spin-up as demonstrated by the slowly decaying tail of the thermal signal.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, to appear in Journal of Low Temperature Physic

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis for emissions reductions in the New Zealand transport sector through to 2050

The CEPA (Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis) method for energy planning has been modified for improved application to large transport systems. The modified method is applied to investigate the feasibility of NZ (New Zealand) reaching a 1990 emission levels for transport by 2050. The transportation sector has been traditionally a difficult area to transition to high levels of renewable energy because of the strong dependency on fossil fuels. For New Zealand, possible steps for low carbon emissions from transport are: (1) electrification of all rail, (2) wide-spread adoption of energy efficient vehicle technologies, (3) partial electrification of light passenger vehicles through plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle technologies, and (4), introduction of liquid fuels from biomass as an alternative to liquid fuels from petroleum

Pinch Analysis Techniques for Carbon Emissions Reduction in the New Zealand Industrial Process Heat Sector

Options for reducing industrial process heat greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in New Zealand are investigated using the Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) and Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) analysis methods. Renewable sources like geothermal, biomass, biogas from animal waste and heat pumps from renewable electricity are investigated. Results indicate that some regions of New Zealand are well placed to make significant reductions to process heat GHG emissions through shifting from fossil fuel heating to renewable heating without a large increase in energy expended or cost. Reducing GHG emissions below 1990 levels can be achieved by using wood waste and biomass in place of coal (33.3 PJ) and biogas from animal waste in place of natural gas (12.1 PJ) where high temperature heating is required (>90 °C), and renewable electricity driven heat pumps for low temperature heating (<90 °C) in dairy and meat processing industries (7.0 PJ). The expected increase in expended energy is 20 %. Over all the Central North Island of New Zealand has a significant degree of renewable and natural resource convergence and hence is a prime region for creating low carbon emission industries requiring process heat based on renewable energy and agricultural and forestry waste

Week 96 efficacy and safety results of the phase 3, randomized EMERALD trial to evaluate switching from boosted-protease inhibitors plus emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate regimens to the once daily, single-tablet regimen of darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) in treatment-experienced, virologically-suppressed adults living with HIV-1

Altres ajuts: This study was sponsored by Janssen.Darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) 800/150/200/10 mg was investigated through 96 weeks in EMERALD (NCT02269917). Virologically-suppressed, HIV-1-positive treatment-experienced adults (previous non-darunavir virologic failure [VF] allowed) were randomized (2:1) to D/C/F/TAF or boosted protease inhibitor (PI) plus emtricitabine/tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate (F/TDF) over 48 weeks. At week 52 participants in the boosted PI arm were offered switch to D/C/F/TAF (late-switch, 44 weeks D/C/F/TAF exposure). All participants were followed on D/C/F/TAF until week 96. Efficacy endpoints were percentage cumulative protocol-defined virologic rebound (PDVR; confirmed viral load [VL] ≥50 copies/mL) and VL < 50 copies/mL (virologic suppression) and ≥50 copies/mL (VF) (FDA-snapshot analysis). Of 1141 randomized patients, 1080 continued in the extension phase. Few patients had PDVR (D/C/F/TAF: 3.1%, 24/763 cumulative through week 96; late-switch: 2.3%, 8/352 week 52-96). Week 96 virologic suppression was 90.7% (692/763) (D/C/F/TAF) and 93.8% (330/352) (late-switch). VF was 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. No darunavir, primary PI, tenofovir or emtricitabine resistance-associated mutations were observed post-baseline. No patients discontinued for efficacy-related reasons. Few discontinued due to adverse events (2% D/C/F/TAF arm). Improved renal and bone parameters were maintained in the D/C/F/TAF arm and observed in the late-switch arm, with small increases in total cholesterol/high-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio. A study limitation was the lack of a control arm in the week 96 analysis. Through 96 weeks, D/C/F/TAF resulted in low PDVR rates, high virologic suppression rates, very few VFs, and no resistance development. Late-switch results were consistent with D/C/F/TAF week 48 results. EMERALD week 96 results confirm the efficacy, high genetic barrier to resistance and safety benefits of D/C/F/TAF

Week 96 efficacy and safety results of the phase 3, randomized EMERALD trial to evaluate switching from boosted-protease inhibitors plus emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate regimens to the once daily, single-tablet regimen of darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) in treatment-experienced, virologically-suppressed adults living with HIV-1

Darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) 800/150/200/10 mg was investigated through 96 weeks in EMERALD (NCT02269917). Virologically-suppressed, HIV-1-positive treatment-experienced adults (previous non-darunavir virologic failure [VF] allowed) were randomized (2:1) to D/C/F/TAF or boosted protease inhibitor (PI) plus emtricitabine/tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate (F/TDF) over 48 weeks. At week 52 participants in the boosted PI arm were offered switch to D/C/F/TAF (late-switch, 44 weeks D/C/F/TAF exposure). All participants were followed on D/C/F/TAF until week 96. Efficacy endpoints were percentage cumulative protocol-defined virologic rebound (PDVR; confirmed viral load [VL] ≥50 copies/mL) and VL < 50 copies/mL (virologic suppression) and ≥50 copies/mL (VF) (FDA-snapshot analysis). Of 1141 randomized patients, 1080 continued in the extension phase. Few patients had PDVR (D/C/F/TAF: 3.1%, 24/763 cumulative through week 96; late-switch: 2.3%, 8/352 week 52–96). Week 96 virologic suppression was 90.7% (692/763) (D/C/F/TAF) and 93.8% (330/352) (late-switch). VF was 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. No darunavir, primary PI, tenofovir or emtricitabine resistance-associated mutations were observed post-baseline. No patients discontinued for efficacy-related reasons. Few discontinued due to adverse events (2% D/C/F/TAF arm). Improved renal and bone parameters were maintained in the D/C/F/TAF arm and observed in the late-switch arm, with small increases in total cholesterol/high-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio. A study limitation was the lack of a control arm in the week 96 analysis. Through 96 weeks, D/C/F/TAF resulted in low PDVR rates, high virologic suppression rates, very few VFs, and no resistance development. Late-switch results were consistent with D/C/F/TAF week 48 results. EMERALD week 96 results confirm the efficacy, high genetic barrier to resistance and safety benefits of D/C/F/TAF

SARS-CoV-2-specific nasal IgA wanes 9 months after hospitalisation with COVID-19 and is not induced by subsequent vaccination

BACKGROUND: Most studies of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 focus on circulating antibody, giving limited insights into mucosal defences that prevent viral replication and onward transmission. We studied nasal and plasma antibody responses one year after hospitalisation for COVID-19, including a period when SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was introduced. METHODS: In this follow up study, plasma and nasosorption samples were prospectively collected from 446 adults hospitalised for COVID-19 between February 2020 and March 2021 via the ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. IgA and IgG responses to NP and S of ancestral SARS-CoV-2, Delta and Omicron (BA.1) variants were measured by electrochemiluminescence and compared with plasma neutralisation data. FINDINGS: Strong and consistent nasal anti-NP and anti-S IgA responses were demonstrated, which remained elevated for nine months (p < 0.0001). Nasal and plasma anti-S IgG remained elevated for at least 12 months (p < 0.0001) with plasma neutralising titres that were raised against all variants compared to controls (p < 0.0001). Of 323 with complete data, 307 were vaccinated between 6 and 12 months; coinciding with rises in nasal and plasma IgA and IgG anti-S titres for all SARS-CoV-2 variants, although the change in nasal IgA was minimal (1.46-fold change after 10 months, p = 0.011) and the median remained below the positive threshold determined by pre-pandemic controls. Samples 12 months after admission showed no association between nasal IgA and plasma IgG anti-S responses (R = 0.05, p = 0.18), indicating that nasal IgA responses are distinct from those in plasma and minimally boosted by vaccination. INTERPRETATION: The decline in nasal IgA responses 9 months after infection and minimal impact of subsequent vaccination may explain the lack of long-lasting nasal defence against reinfection and the limited effects of vaccination on transmission. These findings highlight the need to develop vaccines that enhance nasal immunity. FUNDING: This study has been supported by ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. ISARIC4C is supported by grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research and the Medical Research Council. Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre provided infrastructure support for this research. The PHOSP-COVD study is jointly funded by UK Research and Innovation and National Institute of Health and Care Research. The funders were not involved in the study design, interpretation of data or the writing of this manuscript