Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors�the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25 over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8 (95 CI 56·6�58·8) of global deaths and 41·2 (39·8�42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million 192·7 million to 231·1 million global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million 134·2 million to 163·1 million), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million 125·1 million to 163·5 million), high BMI (120·1 million 83·8 million to 158·4 million), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million 103·9 million to 123·4 million), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million 90·8 million to 115·1 million), high total cholesterol (88·7 million 74·6 million to 105·7 million), household air pollution (85·6 million 66·7 million to 106·1 million), alcohol use (85·0 million 77·2 million to 93·0 million), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million 49·3 million to 127·5 million). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Legume consumption is inversely associated with type 2 diabetes incidence in adults: A prospective assessment from the PREDIMED study

Background & aims: Legumes, a low-energy, nutrient-dense and low glycemic index food, have shown beneficial effects on glycemic control and adiposity. As such, legumes are widely recommended in diabetic diets, even though there is little evidence that their consumption protects against type 2 diabetes. Therefore the aim of the present study was to examine the associations between consumption of total legumes and specific subtypes, and type 2 diabetes risk. We also investigated the effect of theoretically substituting legumes for other protein- or carbohydrate-rich foods. Methods: Prospective assessment of 3349 participants in the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) study without type 2 diabetes at baseline. Dietary information was assessed at baseline and yearly during follow-up. We used Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for type-2 diabetes incidence according to quartiles of cumulative average consumption of total legumes, lentils, chickpeas, dry beans and fresh peas. Results: During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 266 new cases of type 2 diabetes occurred. Individuals in the highest quartile of total legume and lentil consumption had a lower risk of diabetes than those in the lowest quartile (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.43, 0.96; P-trend = 0.04; and HR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.46–0.98; P-trend = 0.05, respectively). A borderline significant association was also observed for chickpeas consumption (HR 0.68; 95% CI: 0.46, 1.00; P-trend = 0.06). Substitutions of half a serving/day of legumes for similar servings of eggs, bread, rice or baked potato was associated with lower risk of diabetes incidence. Conclusions: A frequent consumption of legumes, particularly lentils, in the context of a Mediterranean diet, may provide benefits on type 2 diabetes prevention in older adults at high cardiovascular risk. Trial registration: The trial is registered at http://www.controlled-trials.com (ISRCTN35739639). Registration date: 5th October 2005.The authors disclose no conflict of interest related with the article. Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Fisiopatología de la Obesidad y Nutrición (CIBEROBN) is an initiative of the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) of Spain which is supported by FEDER funds (CB06/03). Supported by the official funding agency for biomedical research of the Spanish government, ISCIII, through grants provided to research networks specifically developed for the trial (RTIC G03/140 and RD 06/0045) through CIBEROBN, and by grants from Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares (CNIC 06/2007), Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria–FondoEuropeo de Desarrollo Regional (PI04–2239, PI05/2584, CP06/00100, PI07/0240, PI07/1138, PI07/0954, PI 07/0473, PI10/01407, PI10/02658, PI11/01647, and PI11/02505; PI13/00462), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (AGL-2009–13906-C02 and AGL2010–22319-C03), Fundación Mapfre 2010, Consejería de Salud de la Junta de Andalucía (PI0105/2007), Public Health Division of the Department of Health of the Autonomous Government of Catalonia, Generalitat Valenciana (ACOMP06109, GVA-COMP2010–181, GVACOMP2011–151, CS2010-AP-111, and CS2011-AP-042), and the Navarra Regional Government (27/2011). The Fundación Patrimonio Comunal Olivarero and Hojiblanca SA (Málaga, Spain), California Walnut Commission (Sacramento, CA), Borges SA (Reus, Spain), and Morella Nuts SA (Reus, Spain) donated the olive oil, walnuts, almonds, and hazelnuts, respectively, used in the study. None of the funding sources played a role in the design, collection, analysis or interpretation of the data or in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Acknowledgements: The authors thank all the participants for their collaboration, all the PREDIMED personnel for their assistance and all the personnel of affiliated primary care centers for making the study possible. CIBEROBN is an initiative of ISCIII, Spain.Peer Reviewe