Real-time simulated storm surge predictions during Hurricane Michael (2018)

Storm surge caused by tropical cyclones can cause overland flooding and lead to loss of life while damaging homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure. In 2018, Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, FL, on 10 October with peak wind speeds near 71.9 m s-1 (161 mph) and storm surge over 4.5 m NAVD88. During Hurricane Michael, water levels and waves were predicted near real-time using a deterministic, depth-averaged, high-resolution ADCIRC+SWAN model of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The model was forced with an asymmetrical parametric vortex model (GAHM) based on Michael's National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track and strength. The authors report errors between simulated and observed water level time-series, peak water level, and timing of peak for NHC Advisories. Forecasts of water levels were within 0.5 m of observations, and the timing of peak water levels was within 1 hr as early as 48 hr before Michael’s eventual landfall. We also examined the effect of adding far-field meteorology in our TC vortex model for use in real-time forecasts. In general, we found that including far-field meteorology by blending the TC vortex with a basin-scale NWP product improved water level forecasts. However, we note that divergence between the NHC forecast track and the forecast track of the meteorological model supplying the far-field winds represents a potential limitation to operationalizing a blended wind field surge product. The approaches and data reported herein provide a transparent assessment of water level forecasts during Hurricane Michael and highlight potential future improvements for more accurate predictions

Impact of employee motivation on passenger satisfaction levels – A case study in the state of Karnataka (India)

Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies. Faculty of Economics and Business. The University of Sydne

SO(2,1) conformal anomaly: Beyond contact interactions

The existence of anomalous symmetry-breaking solutions of the SO(2,1) commutator algebra is explicitly extended beyond the case of scale-invariant contact interactions. In particular, the failure of the conservation laws of the dilation and special conformal charges is displayed for the two-dimensional inverse square potential. As a consequence, this anomaly appears to be a generic feature of conformal quantum mechanics and not merely an artifact of contact interactions. Moreover, a renormalization procedure traces the emergence of this conformal anomaly to the ultraviolet sector of the theory, within which lies the apparent singularity.Comment: 11 pages. A few typos corrected in the final versio

Biallelic Mutations in ADPRHL2, Encoding ADP-Ribosylhydrolase 3, Lead to a Degenerative Pediatric Stress-Induced Epileptic Ataxia Syndrome.

ADP-ribosylation, the addition of poly-ADP ribose (PAR) onto proteins, is a response signal to cellular challenges, such as excitotoxicity or oxidative stress. This process is catalyzed by a group of enzymes referred to as poly(ADP-ribose) polymerases (PARPs). Because the accumulation of proteins with this modification results in cell death, its negative regulation restores cellular homeostasis: a process mediated by poly-ADP ribose glycohydrolases (PARGs) and ADP-ribosylhydrolase proteins (ARHs). Using linkage analysis and exome or genome sequencing, we identified recessive inactivating mutations in ADPRHL2 in six families. Affected individuals exhibited a pediatric-onset neurodegenerative disorder with progressive brain atrophy, developmental regression, and seizures in association with periods of stress, such as infections. Loss of the Drosophila paralog Parg showed lethality in response to oxidative challenge that was rescued by human ADPRHL2, suggesting functional conservation. Pharmacological inhibition of PARP also rescued the phenotype, suggesting the possibility of postnatal treatment for this genetic condition

Ten-year outcome of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy plus surgery for esophageal cancer: the randomized controlled CROSS trial

PURPOSE Preoperative chemoradiotherapy according to the chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer followed by surgery study (CROSS) has become a standard of care for patients with locally advanced resectable esophageal or junctional cancer. We aimed to assess long-term outcome of this regimen. METHODS From 2004 through 2008, we randomly assigned 366 patients to either five weekly cycles of carboplatin and paclitaxel with concurrent radiotherapy (41.4 Gy in 23 fractions, 5 days per week) followed by surgery, or surgery alone. Follow-up data were collected through 2018. Cox regression analyses were performed to compare overall survival, cause-specific survival, and risks of locoregional and distant relapse. The effect of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy beyond 5 years of follow-up was tested with time-dependent Cox regression and landmark analyses. RESULTS The median follow-up was 147 months (interquartile range, 134-157). Patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy had better overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.89). The effect of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy on overall survival was not time-dependent (P value for interaction, P = .73), and landmark analyses suggested a stable effect on overall survival up to 10 years of follow-up. The absolute 10-year overall survival benefit was 13% (38% v 25%). Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy reduced risk of death from esophageal cancer (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.80). Death from other causes was similar between study arms (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.68 to 1.99). Although a clear effect on isolated locoregional (HR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.21 to 0.72) and synchronous locoregional plus distant relapse (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.72) persisted, isolated distant relapse was comparable (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.52 to 1.13). CONCLUSION The overall survival benefit of patients with locally advanced resectable esophageal or junctional cancer who receive preoperative chemoradiotherapy according to CROSS persists for at least 10 years.Development and application of statistical models for medical scientific researchAnalysis and support of clinical decision makin

Effect of Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy on Health-Related Quality of Life in Esophageal or Junctional Cancer: Results From the Randomized CROSS Trial

PurposeTo compare pre-agreed health-related quality of life (HRQOL) domains in patients with esophageal or junctional cancer who received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by surgery or surgery alone. Secondary aims were to examine the effect of nCRT on HRQOL before surgery and the effect of surgery on HRQOL.Patients and MethodsPatients were randomly assigned to nCRT (carboplatin plus paclitaxel with concurrent 41.4-Gy radiotherapy) followed by surgery or surgery alone. HRQOL was measured using the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire–Core 30 (QLQ-C30) and –Oesophageal Cancer Module (QLQ-OES24) questionnaires pretreatment and at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months postoperatively. The nCRT group also received preoperative questionnaires. Physical functioning (PF; QLQ-C30) and eating problems (EA; QLQ-OES24) were chosen as predefined primary end points. Predefined secondary end points were global QOL (GQOL; QLQ-C30), fatigue (FA; QLQ-C30), and emotional problems (EM; QLQ-OES24).ResultsA total of 363 patients were analyzed. No statistically significant differences in postoperative HRQOL were found between treatment groups. In the nCRT group, PF, EA, GQOL, FA, and EM scores deteriorated 1 week after nCRT (Cohen’s d: −0.93, P P P P P = .001, respectively). In both treatment groups, all end points declined 3 months postoperatively compared with baseline (Cohen’s d: −1.00, 0.33, −0.47, −0.34, and 0.33, respectively; all P P ConclusionAlthough HRQOL declined during nCRT, no effect of nCRT was apparent on postoperative HRQOL compared with surgery alone. In addition to the improvement in survival, these findings support the view that nCRT according to the Chemoradiotherapy for Esophageal Cancer Followed by Surgery Study–regimen can be regarded as a standard of care.FSW – Publicaties zonder aanstelling Universiteit Leide