Fitness consequences of dispersal:Is leaving home the best of a bad lot?

Using 20 years of demographic and genetic data from four populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spectabilis), we asked whether dispersing individuals gain benefits during adulthood that might compensate for the substantial survival costs they experience as juveniles. Compared to philopatric animals, within- and between-population dispersers gained no measureable advantages in adult survival, fecundity, or probability of recruiting offspring to adulthood. Restricting analyses to members of two central populations living more than 15 times the median dispersal distance from the study site edge, and using peripheral populations only to detect dispersal or offspring recruitment "offsite," did not change this result. Population density during year of birth had small negative effects on adult survival and fecundity, but there were no interactions with dispersal phenotype. We found no evidence that dispersers gained access to superior habitat or that their offspring suffered less inbreeding depression. Our results are consistent with fitness advantages being indirect; by leaving, dispersers release their kin from competition. Our results are also consistent with the possibility that dispersal is the "best of a bad lot." If dispersal is a conditional strategy, then the benefits may be obscured in observational data that compare dispersing individuals to philopatric individuals rather than to individuals whose dispersal phenotype is experimentally manipulated

An evidence-based approach to assessing the effectiveness of training regimen on athlete performance: Youth soccer as a case study

Athletic performance data are modeled in an effort to better understand the relationship between both hours spent training and a measurement of “commitment” to that training, and improvements in performance. Both increased training time and greater commitment were predicted to produce larger increases in performance improvement, and commitment was predicted to be the more important determinant of improvement. The performance of 108 soccer players (ages 9–18) was quantified over a 10-week training program. Hours spent training ranged from 16 to 90 during the course of the study, while commitment scores ranged from 0.55 to 2.00, based on a scale from 0.00 to 2.40. A model selection approach was used to discriminate among models specifying relationships between training hours and improvement, and commitment and improvement. Despite considerable variability in the data, results provided strong evidence for an increase in performance improvement with both training hours and commitment score. The best models for hours and commitment were directly compared by computing an evidence ratio of 5799, indicating much stronger evidence favoring the model based on commitment. Results of analyses such as these go beyond anecdotal experience in an effort to establish a formal evidentiary basis for athletic training programs

Saturn’s northern auroras as observed using the Hubble Space Telescope

We discuss the features of Saturn’s northern FUV auroras as observed during a program of Hubble Space Telescope observations which executed over 2011-2013 and culminated, along with Cassini observations, in a comprehensive multi-spectral observing campaign. Our 2011-2013 observations of the northern aurora are also compared with those from our 2007-2008 observation of the southern aurora. We show that the variety of morphologies of the northern auroras is broadly consistent with the southern, and determine the statistical equatorward and poleward boundary locations. We find that our boundaries are overall consistent with previous observations, although a modest poleward displacement of the poleward boundaries is due to the increased prevalence of poleward auroral patches in the noon and afternoon sectors during this program, likely due to the solar wind interaction. We also show that the northern auroral oval oscillates with the northern planetary period oscillation (PPO) phase in an elongated ellipse with semi-major axis ∼1.6°1.6° oriented along the post-dawn/post-dusk direction. We further show that the northern auroras exhibit dawn-side brightenings at zero northern magnetic PPO phase, although there is mixed evidence of auroral emissions fixed in the rotating frame of the northern PPO current system, such that overall the dependence of the auroras on northern magnetic phase is somewhat weak

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability.

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are <1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213–1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390–1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other

Auroral evidence of radial transport at Jupiter during January 2014

We present Jovian auroral observations from the 2014 January Hubble Space Telescope (HST) campaign and investigate the auroral signatures of radial transport in the magnetosphere alongside contemporaneous radio and Hisaki EUV data. HST FUV auroral observations on day 11 show, for the first time, a significantly superrotating polar spot poleward of the main emission on the dawnside. The spot transitions from the polar to main emission region in the presence of a locally broad, bright dawnside main emission feature and two large equatorward emission features. Such a configuration of the main emission region is also unreported to date. We interpret the signatures as part of a sequence of inward radial transport processes. Hot plasma inflows from tail reconnection are thought to flow planetward and could generate the superrotating spot. The main emission feature could be the result of flow shears from prior hot inflows. Equatorward emissions are observed. These are evidence of hot plasma injections in the inner magnetosphere. The images are thought to be part of a prolonged period of reconnection. Radio emissions measured by Wind suggest that hectometric (HOM) and non-Io decametric (DAM) signatures are associated with the sequence of auroral signatures, which implies a global magnetospheric disturbance. The reconnection and injection interval can continue for several hours

Weakening of Jupiter's main auroral emission during January 2014

In January 2014 Jupiter's FUV main auroral oval decreased its emitted power by 70% and shifted equatorward by ∼1°. Intense, low-latitude features were also detected. The decrease in emitted power is attributed to a decrease in auroral current density rather than electron energy. This could be caused by a decrease in the source electron density, an order of magnitude increase in the source electron thermal energy, or a combination of these. Both can be explained either by expansion of the magnetosphere or by an increase in the inward transport of hot plasma through the middle magnetosphere and its interchange with cold flux tubes moving outward. In the latter case the hot plasma could have increased the electron temperature in the source region and produced the intense, low-latitude features, while the increased cold plasma transport rate produced the shift of the main oval

Weakening of Jupiter's main auroral emission during January 2014

In January 2014 Jupiter's FUV main auroral oval decreased its emitted power by 70% and shifted equatorward by ∼1°. Intense, low-latitude features were also detected. The decrease in emitted power is attributed to a decrease in auroral current density rather than electron energy. This could be caused by a decrease in the source electron density, an order of magnitude increase in the source electron thermal energy, or a combination of these. Both can be explained either by expansion of the magnetosphere or by an increase in the inward transport of hot plasma through the middle magnetosphere and its interchange with cold flux tubes moving outward. In the latter case the hot plasma could have increased the electron temperature in the source region and produced the intense, low-latitude features, while the increased cold plasma transport rate produced the shift of the main oval

A Gravitational Aharonov-Bohm Effect, and its Connection to Parametric Oscillators and Gravitational Radiation

A thought experiment is proposed to demonstrate the existence of a gravitational, vector Aharonov-Bohm effect. A connection is made between the gravitational, vector Aharonov-Bohm effect and the principle of local gauge invariance for nonrelativistic quantum matter interacting with weak gravitational fields. The compensating vector fields that are necessitated by this local gauge principle are shown to be incorporated by the DeWitt minimal coupling rule. The nonrelativistic Hamiltonian for weak, time-independent fields interacting with quantum matter is then extended to time-dependent fields, and applied to problem of the interaction of radiation with macroscopically coherent quantum systems, including the problem of gravitational radiation interacting with superconductors. But first we examine the interaction of EM radiation with superconductors in a parametric oscillator consisting of a superconducting wire placed at the center of a high Q superconducting cavity driven by pump microwaves. We find that the threshold for parametric oscillation for EM microwave generation is much lower for the separated configuration than the unseparated one, which then leads to an observable dynamical Casimir effect. We speculate that a separated parametric oscillator for generating coherent GR microwaves could also be built.Comment: 25 pages, 5 figures, YA80 conference (Chapman University, 2012

Discrimination between Precancerous Gastric Lesions and Gastritis Using a Gastric Cancer Risk Stratification Model

Background: Seropositivity to certain Helicobacter pylori proteins may affect development of gastric lesions that could become cancerous. Previously, we developed a model of gastric cancer risk including gender, age, HP0305 seropositivity, HP1564 sero-positivity, UreA antibody titer and serologically defined chronic atrophic gastritis (termed: “Lasso model”). Methods: We evaluated the Lasso model’s ability to discriminate individuals with precancerous gastric lesions (n=320) from individuals with superficial or mild atrophic gastritis (n=226) in Linqu County, China, a population at high risk for gastric cancer. We also compared its performance to the ABC Method, a gastric cancer risk stratification tool currently used in East Asia. Results: For distinguishing precancerous lesions from those with gastritis, the receiver operating characteristic curve had an area under the curve (AUC) of 73.41% (95% CI: 69.10%, 77.71%) and, at Youden’s Index, a sensitivity of 78.44% (59.38%, 82.50%) and specificity of 64.72% (95% CI: 58.85%, 81.42%). Positive predictive value (PPV) was 75.38% (72.78%, 82.51%). Specificity, AUC and PPV were significantly greater (p < 0.05) than those of the ABC Method. When specificity was held constant, the Lasso model had greater sensitivity, PPV and negative predictive value (NPV) than the ABC Method. However, adjusting the ABC Method for age and gender negated the Lasso model’s significant improvement in AUC. Conclusions: The Lasso model for gastric cancer risk prediction can classify precancerous lesions with significantly greater AUC than the ABC Method and, at constant specificity, with greater sensitivity, PPV and NPV. However, adding age and gender to the ABC Method, as included in the Lasso model, substantially improved its performance and negated the Lasso model’s advantag