The Internal Validation of a National Model of Long Distance Traffic.

During 1980/81, the Department of Transport developed a model for describing the distribution of private vehicle trips between 642 districts in Great Britain, using data from household and roadside interviews conducted in 1976 for the Regional Highways Traffic Model, and a new formulation of the gravity model, called a composite approach, in which shorter length movements were described at a finer level of zonal detail than longer movements. This report describes the results of an independent validation exercise conducted for the Department, in which the theoretical basis of the model and its the quality of its fit to base year data were examined. The report discusses model specification; input data; calibration issues; and accuracy assessment. The main problems addressed included the treatment of intrazonal and terminal costs, which was thought to be deficient; the trip-end estimates to which the model was constrained, which were shown to have substantial variability and to be biassed (though the cause of the latter could be readily removed), with some evidence of geographical under-specification; and the differences between roadside and household interview estimates. The report includes a detailed examination of the composite model specification and contains suggestions for improving the way in which such models are fitted. The main technical developments, for both theory and practice, are the methods developed for assessing the accuracy of the fitted model and for examining the quality of its fit with respect to the observed data, taking account of the variances and covariances of modelled and data values. Overall, the broad conclusion was that, whilst there appeared to be broad compatibility between modelled and onserved data in observed cells, there was clear evidence of inadequacy in certain respects, such as for example underestimation of intradistr ict trips. This work was done in co-operation with Howard Humphreys and Partners and Transportation Planning Associates, who validated the model against independent external data; their work is reported separately

Prolonged enoxaparin therapy compared with standard-of-care antithrombotic therapy in opiate-treated patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention

A novel enoxaparin regimen consisting of intra-arterial bolus (0.75 mg/kg) followed by intravenous infusion (0.75 mg/kg/6 hours) has been developed as a possible solution to the delayed absorption of oral P2Y12 inhibitors in opiate-treated ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing primary angioplasty. We aimed to study the feasibility of this regimen as an alternative to standard-of-care treatment (SOC) with unfractionated heparin ± glycoprotein IIb/IIIa antagonist (GPI). One hundred opiate-treated patients presenting with STEMI and accepted for primary angioplasty were randomized (1:1) to either enoxaparin or SOC. Fifty patients were allocated enoxaparin (median age 61, 40% females) and 49 allocated SOC (median age 62, 22% females). One developed stroke before angiography and was withdrawn. One SOC patient had a gastrointestinal bleed resulting in 1 g drop in hemoglobin and early cessation of GPI infusion. Two enoxaparin patients had transient minor bleeding: one transient gingival bleed and one episode of coffee ground vomit with no hemoglobin drop or hemodynamic instability. Two SOC and no enoxaparin group patients had acute stent thrombosis. These preliminary data support further study of this novel 6-hour enoxaparin regimen in opiate-treated PPCI patients

WIMP Annual Modulation with Opposite Phase in Late-Infall Halo Models

We show that in the late-infall model of our galactic halo by P. Sikivie the expected phase of the annual modulation of a WIMP halo signal in direct detection experiments is opposite to the one usually expected. If a non-virialized halo component due to the infall of (collisionless) dark matter particles cannot be rejected, an annual modulation in a dark matter signal should be looked for by experimenters without fixing the phase a-priori. Moreover, WIMP streams coming to Earth from directions above and below the galactic plane should be expected, with a characteristic pattern of arrival directions.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

Research-informed design, management and maintenance of infrastructure slopes: development of a multi-scalar approach

The UK’s transport infrastructure is one of the most heavily used in the world. The performance of these networks is critically dependent on the performance of cutting and embankment slopes which make up £20B of the £60B asset value of major highway infrastructure alone. The rail network in particular is also one of the oldest in the world: many of these slopes are suffering high incidents of instability (increasing with time). This paper describes the development of a fundamental understanding of earthwork material and system behaviour, through the systematic integration of research across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Spatially these range from microscopic studies of soil fabric, through elemental materials behaviour to whole slope modelling and monitoring and scaling up to transport networks. Temporally, historical and current weather event sequences are being used to understand and model soil deterioration processes, and climate change scenarios to examine their potential effects on slope performance in futures up to and including the 2080s. The outputs of this research are being mapped onto the different spatial and temporal scales of infrastructure slope asset management to inform the design of new slopes through to changing the way in which investment is made into aging assets. The aim ultimately is to help create a more reliable, cost effective, safer and more resilient transport system

Complete solutions to the metric of spherically collapsing dust in an expanding spacetime with a cosmological constant

We present semi-analytical solutions to the background equations describing the Lema\^itre-Tolman-Bondi (LTB) metric as well as the homogeneous Friedmann equations, in the presence of dust, curvature and a cosmological constant Lambda. For none of the presented solutions any numerical integration has to be performed. All presented solutions are given for expanding and collapsing phases, preserving continuity in time and radius. Hence, these solutions describe the complete space time of a collapsing spherical object in an expanding universe. In the appendix we present for completeness a solution of the Friedmann equations in the additional presence of radiation, only valid for the Robertson-Walker metric.Comment: 23 pages, one figure. Numerical module for evaluation of the solutions released at http://web.physik.rwth-aachen.de/download/valkenburg/ColLambda/ Matches published version, published under Open Access. Note change of titl

The impact of virtual fractional flow reserve and virtual coronary intervention upon treatment decisions in the cardiac catheter laboratory

Background Using fractional flow reserve (FFR) to guide percutaneous coronary intervention for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) improves clinical decision making but remains under-used. Virtual FFR (vFFR, computed from angiographic images) permits physiological assessment without a pressure wire and can be extended to virtual coronary intervention (VCI) facilitating treatment planning. This study investigated the effect of adding vFFR and VCI to angiography in patient assessment and management. Methods Two cardiologists independently reviewed clinical data and angiograms of 50 patients undergoing invasive management of coronary syndromes, and their management plans were recorded. The vFFRs were computed and disclosed, and the cardiologists submitted revised plans. Then, using VCI, the physiological results of various interventional strategies were shown, and further revision was invited. Results Disclosure of vFFR led to a change in strategy in 27%. VCI led to a change in stent size in 48%. Disclosure of vFFR and VCI resulted in an increase in operator confidence in their decision. Twelve cases were reviewed by six additional cardiologists. There was limited agreement in the management plans between cardiologists based upon either angiography (kappa=0.31) or vFFR (kappa=0.39). Conclusions vFFR has the potential to alter decision making, and VCI can guide stent sizing. However, variability in management strategy remains considerable between operators, even when presented with the same anatomical and physiological data

Categorizing Different Approaches to the Cosmological Constant Problem

We have found that proposals addressing the old cosmological constant problem come in various categories. The aim of this paper is to identify as many different, credible mechanisms as possible and to provide them with a code for future reference. We find that they all can be classified into five different schemes of which we indicate the advantages and drawbacks. Besides, we add a new approach based on a symmetry principle mapping real to imaginary spacetime.Comment: updated version, accepted for publicatio

Association between CMD signs and symptoms, oral parafunctions, race and sex, in 4–6-year-old African-American and Caucasian children

The associations between oral parafunctions, signs and symptoms of craniomandibular disorders (CMD), race, and sex were analysed in recordings from 203 4-6-year-old African-American and Caucasian children. Significant correlations were found between bruxism, nail biting, thumb sucking and most of the CMD signs and symptoms. There were also significant associations between most of the signs and symptoms and race, while significant association with sex was found only regarding headache, TMJ sounds and chewing pain. Significant associations were found between most CMD signs and TMJ sounds supporting the view that joint sound recordings have diagnostic value. There were also significant associations between the pain variables recorded by questionnaire and those recorded by palpation, which indicates that reliable data can be obtained by interviewing children as young as five. The results of this study support the concept that oral parafunctions have a significant role in the aetiology of CMD. The results also show that race and sex need to be considered when analysing the possible aetiological role of oral parafunctions in CMD. Longitudinal studies, beginning with low age groups are needed to better determine the role of childhood oral parafunctions in CMD aetiology.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75673/1/j.1365-2842.1995.tb00241.x.pd